Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

SIMULTANEOUS REACTION AND LIQUID-LIQUID EXTRACTION IN THE HYDROGEN PEROXIDE PRODUCTION

The gas-liquid-liquid reactive extraction system for preparing hydrogen peroxide via anthraquinone was investigated. The oxidation reaction of hydrogenated working solution was combined with the extraction of hydrogen peroxide from working solution in a sieve plate column. The reaction of 2-ethylanthrahydroquionone with oxygen and the liquid-liquid extraction of hydrogen peroxide take place simultaneously. The oxygen was introduced with hydrogenated working solution through a nozzle in the bottom of the column, which worked as agitated air as well as oxidation reagent. The results showed the oxidation and extraction do not hamper each other, on the contrary, the presence of oxidation gas in the column can promote the transfer of hydrogen peroxide from organic phase to aqueous phase, thus the reaction efficiency and extraction efficiency increased with increasing gas superficial velocity. Furthermore, the oxidation efficiency is almost 100% and the extraction efficiency is higher than 90% in this process.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

Aspirin-like drugs may block pain independently of prostaglandin synthesis inhibition

Summary Using flurbiprofen, a chiral anti-inflammatory and analgesic 2-arylpropionic acid derivative, the enantiomers of which are not converted to each other (less than 5%) in rats or man, we obtained evidence that prostaglandin synthesis inhibition is primarily mediating the anti-inflammatory activity but prostaglandin synthesis independent mechanisms contribute to the analgesic effects. Thus, the S-form inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, inflammation and nociception in rats. The R-form had much less effect on prostaglandin synthesis and did not affect inflammation. It did, however, block nociception in rats almost as potently as the S-form. S-flurbiprofen, in contrast to the R-form, was clearly ulcerogenic in the gastrointestinal mucosa. These results indicate additional molecular mechanisms of analgesia and suggest the use of R-arylpropionic acids as analgesics.     

Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于IP多播的机房信息管理系统的设计与实现

提出了一种基于IP多播技术的解决方案并加以实现,满足了对上机学生按系或班级分组进行管理与各类统计的需要,实现了传统C/S结构所能实现的全部功能,解决了传统机房信息管理系统使用带来的问题。     

Specific binding of antigenic peptides to cell-associated MHC class I molecules

T lymphocytes recognize antigen in the form of peptides that associate with specific alleles of class I or class II major histocompatibility (MHC) molecules. By contrast with the clear MHC allele-specific binding of peptides to purified class II molecules purified solubilized class I molecules either bind relatively poorly or show degenerate specificity. Using photo-affinity labelling, we demonstrate here the specific interaction of peptides with cell-associated MHC class I molecules and show that this involves metabolically active processes.