Forecasting with Micro Panels: The Case of Health Care Costs

Micro panels characterized by large numbers of individuals observed over a short time period provide a rich source of information, but as yet there is only limited experience in using such data for forecasting. Existing simulation evidence supports the use of a fixed‐effects approach when forecasting but it is not based on a truly micro panel set‐up. In this study, we exploit the linkage of a representative survey of more than 250,000 Australians aged 45 and over to 4 years of hospital, medical and pharmaceutical records. The availability of panel health cost data allows the use of predictors based on fixed‐effects estimates designed to guard against possible omitted variable biases associated with unobservable individual specific effects. We demonstrate the preference towards fixed‐effects‐based predictors is unlikely to hold in many practical situations, including our models of health care costs. Simulation evidence with a micro panel set‐up adds support and additional insights to the results obtained in the application. These results are supportive of the use of the ordinary least squares predictor in a wide range of circumstances. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mechanisms and consequences of intestinal dysbiosis

The composition of the gut microbiota is in constant flow under the influence of factors such as the diet, ingested drugs, the intestinal mucosa, the immune system, and the microbiota itself. Natural variations in the gut microbiota can deteriorate to a state of dysbiosis when stress conditions rapidly decrease microbial diversity and promote the expansion of specific bacterial taxa. The mechanisms underlying intestinal dysbiosis often remain unclear given that combinations of natural variations and stress factors mediate cascades of destabilizing events. Oxidative stress, bacteriophages induction and the secretion of bacterial toxins can trigger rapid shifts among intestinal microbial groups thereby yielding dysbiosis. A multitude of diseases including inflammatory bowel diseases but also metabolic disorders such as obesity and diabetes type II are associated with intestinal dysbiosis. The characterization of the changes leading to intestinal dysbiosis and the identification of the microbial taxa contributing to pathological effects are essential prerequisites to better understand the impact of the microbiota on health and disease.     

Activation of ataxia telangiectasia muted under experimental models and human Parkinson’s disease

In the present study we demonstrated that neurotoxin MPP⁺-induced DNA damage is followed by ataxia telangiectasia muted (ATM) activation either in cerebellar granule cells (CGC) or in B65 cell line. In CGC, the selective ATM inhibitor KU-55933 showed neuroprotective effects against MPP⁺-induced neuronal cell loss and apoptosis, lending support to the key role of ATM in experimental models of Parkinson’s disease. Likewise, we showed that knockdown of ATM levels in neuroblastoma B65 cells using an ATM-specific siRNA attenuates the phosphorylation of retinoblastoma protein without affecting other cell-cycle proteins involved in the G₀/G₁ cell-cycle phase. Moreover, we demonstrated DNA damage, in human brain samples of PD patients. These findings support a model in which MPP⁺ leads to ATM activation with a subsequent DNA damage response and activation of pRb. Therefore, this study demonstrates a new link between DNA damage by MPP⁺ and cell-cycle re-entry through retinoblastoma protein phosphorylation.     

Common variants at TRAF3IP2 are associated with susceptibility to psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an inflammatory joint disease that is distinct from other chronic arthritides and which is frequently accompanied by psoriasis vulgaris (PsV) and seronegativity for rheumatoid factor. We conducted a genome-wide association study in 609 German individuals with PsA (cases) and 990 controls with replication in 6 European cohorts including a total of 5,488 individuals. We replicated PsA associations at HLA-C and IL12B and identified a new association at TRAF3IP2 (rs13190932, P = 8.56 × 10?1?). TRAF3IP2 was also associated with PsV in a German cohort including 2,040 individuals (rs13190932, P = 1.95 × 10?3). Sequencing of the exons of TRAF3IP2 identified a coding variant (p.Asp10Asn, rs33980500) as the most significantly associated SNP (P = 1.13 × 10?2?, odds ratio = 1.95). Functional assays showed reduced binding of this TRAF3IP2 variant to TRAF6, suggesting altered modulation of immunoregulatory signals through altered TRAF interactions as a new and shared pathway for PsA and PsV.     

Triosephosphate isomerase: a highly evolved biocatalyst

Triosephosphate isomerase (TIM) is a perfectly evolved enzyme which very fast interconverts dihydroxyacetone phosphate and d-glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate. Its catalytic site is at the dimer interface, but the four catalytic residues, Asn11, Lys13, His95 and Glu167, are from the same subunit. Glu167 is the catalytic base. An important feature of the TIM active site is the concerted closure of loop-6 and loop-7 on ligand binding, shielding the catalytic site from bulk solvent. The buried active site stabilises the enediolate intermediate. The catalytic residue Glu167 is at the beginning of loop-6. On closure of loop-6, the Glu167 carboxylate moiety moves approximately 2 Å to the substrate. The dynamic properties of the Glu167 side chain in the enzyme substrate complex are a key feature of the proton shuttling mechanism. Two proton shuttling mechanisms, the classical and the criss-cross mechanism, are responsible for the interconversion of the substrates of this enolising enzyme.     

Chemistry and meteorology, 1700–1825

In 1639–1640 Benedetto Castelli (1577–1643) wrote a treatise on the loadstone which is quite unlike any of its contemporaries. In it are the origins of the notion of elementary magnets sharing a common alignment, the idea that all materials are magnetic in different ways, and the first intimation of the conception of magnetic domains. Castelli did not publish his treatise. Nevertheless his work was noted during his life-time, and may have exerted an influence on the development of magnetic theory in the 17th century. The treatise was published in 1883. Since then, however, it has either been neglected or not appreciated. It deserves being rescued from the neglect of more than three centuries.     

Hormonal control of Sertoli cell metabolism regulates spermatogenesis

Hormonal regulation is essential to spermatogenesis. Sertoli cells (SCs) have functions that reach far beyond the physical support of germ cells, as they are responsible for creating the adequate ionic and metabolic environment for germ cell development. Thus, much attention has been given to the metabolic functioning of SCs. During spermatogenesis, germ cells are provided with suitable metabolic substrates, in a set of events mediated by SCs. Multiple signaling cascades regulate SC function and several of these signaling pathways are hormone-dependent and cell-specific. Within the seminiferous tubules, only SCs possess receptors for some hormones rendering them major targets for the hormonal signaling that regulates spermatogenesis. Although the mechanisms by which SCs fulfill their own and germ cells metabolic needs are mostly studied in vitro, SC metabolism is unquestionably a regulation point for germ cell development and the hormonal control of these processes is required for a normal spermatogenesis.     

The LRRK2 G2019S mutant exacerbates basal autophagy through activation of the MEK/ERK pathway

Mutations in leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) are a major cause of familial Parkinsonism, and the G2019S mutation of LRRK2 is one of the most prevalent mutations. The deregulation of autophagic processes in nerve cells is thought to be a possible cause of Parkinson’s disease (PD). In this study, we observed that G2019S mutant fibroblasts exhibited higher autophagic activity levels than control fibroblasts. Elevated levels of autophagic activity can trigger cell death, and in our study, G2019S mutant cells exhibited increased apoptosis hallmarks compared to control cells. LRRK2 is able to induce the phosphorylation of MAPK/ERK kinases (MEK). The use of 1,4-diamino-2,3-dicyano-1,4-bis[2-aminophenylthio]butadiene (U0126), a highly selective inhibitor of MEK1/2, reduced the enhanced autophagy and sensibility observed in G2019S LRRK2 mutation cells. These data suggest that the G2019S mutation induces autophagy via MEK/ERK pathway and that the inhibition of this exacerbated autophagy reduces the sensitivity observed in G2019S mutant cells.