The role of macroeconometric models in forecasting and policy analysis in the united states

This article stresses how little is known about the quality, particularly the relative quality, of macroeconometric models. Most economists make a strict distinction between the quality of a model per se and the accuracy of solutions based on that model. While this distinction is valid, it leaves unanswered how to compare the‘validity’of conditional models. The standard test, the accuracy of ex post simulations, is not definitive when models with differing degrees of exogeneity are compared. In addition, it is extremely difficult to estimate the relative quantitative importance of conceptual problems of models, such as parameter instability across‘policy regimes’ In light of the difficulty in comparisons of conditional macroeconometric models, many model-builders and users assume that the best models are those that have been used to make the most accurate forecasts are those made with the best models. Forecasting experience indicates that forecasters using macroeconometric models have produced more accurate macroeconomic forecasts than either naive or sophisticated unconditional statistical models. It also suggests that judgementally adjusted forecasts have been more accurate than model-based forecasts generated mechanically. The influence of econometrically-based forecasts is now so pervasive that it is difficult to find examples of‘purely judgemental’forecasts.     

Effect of gum Arabic on aminopyrine demethylation in rats

Summary Stimulation of aminopyrine demethylation induced in rats by oral or i.p. administration of phenobarbital was partially inhibited in animals receiving daily treatments of 2×200 mg/kg gum Arabic p.o.     

Effect of cholinesterase inhibitors on differentiation of cultured sympathicoblasts

Summary The 2 cholinesterase inhibitors, eserine and BW 284 C 51, inhibited the nerve fibre growth and differentiation of immature sympathicoblasts at low concentrations. The effect was nerve cell-specific and appeared in the course of the in vitro development, indicating that cholinesterases might play an important role in the early differentiation of sympathicoblasts.     

Pseudotumoral uterine reaction in the rat treated with a benzofuro-benzoxepin

When orally administered, 5-(3-diméthylamino propyliden)-benzofuro [2,3-c] benzoxepin-1, which antagonizes several biogenic amines, is slightly sedative and has also endocrinological properties in the Rat, induces the appearance of localized lesions of uterine stroma in 2 to 16% of the animals. The cytological picture could suggest a tumorogenesis. In fact, these lesions represent a non-tumoral reactional hyperplasia with nuclear abnormalities due to a hormonal stimulation.     

Frequency-domain study of the mechanical response of living striated muscle

Summary Small-amplitude sinusoidal displacements, in the frequency rang 4–100 Hz, were applied to intact whole frog sartorius muscle whilst in a state of tetanus. At low frequencies the muscle, was observed to do oscillatory work, while at higher frequencies it tended towards elastic behaviour. Frequency-response plots obtained were compared with those from other muscle preparations. Results were interpreted in terms of mechano-chemical transduction properties of muscle.The authors wish to thank the Australian Research Grants Commission for provision of the laser, and L. I. Patterson for construction of the mechanical apparatus.     

Regulation of non-muscle myosin assembly by calmodulin-dependent light chain kinase

The presence of actin and myosin in non-muscle cells suggests that they may be involved in a wide range of cellular contractile activities. The generally accepted view is that interaction between actin and myosin in these cells and in vertebrate smooth muscle, is regulated by the level of phosphorylation of the 20,000-molecular weight (MW) light chain. In the absence of calcium, this light chain is not phosphorylated and the myosin cannot interact with actin. Calcium activates a specific calmodulin-dependent kinase which phosphorylates the light chain, initiating actin-myosin interaction. Although most studies on the role of phosphorylation have concentration on the regulation of actin-activated myosin Mg-ATPase activity, phosphorylation of the light chain also seems to control the assembly of smooth muscle myosin into filaments. Using purified smooth muscle light chain kinase, we have confirmed this observation. We report here studies of myosins isolated from the two non-muscle sources, thymus cells and platelets. We observed that these myosins are assembled into filaments at physiological ionic strength and Mg-ATP concentrations, only when the 20,000-MW light chain is phosphorylated.     

Effects of thalidomide on the skeleton of the rat foetus

Zusammenfassung Nach Thalidomidverabreichung an trächtigen Ratten fanden wir Fruchtresorption und Anomalien am fünften Brustbeinkern der Föten. Weitere ergänzende Skelettuntersuchungen ergaben, besonders bei mittelgrossen Thalidomidgaben, Verknöcherungs-störungen an den Halswirbelkörpern. Andere Skeletteile zeigten keine Thalidomid-abhängigen Entwicklungsvariationen.