Churchman's “process of unfolding”—Its significance for policy analysis and evaluation

Churchman's process of unfolding is one of his lesser known concepts, yet it is essential for understanding his dialectical systems approach. This paper gives a brief introduction to the concept and presents a simple framework for applying it to policy analysis and program evaluation.     

Genome-wide association analysis in primary sclerosing cholangitis identifies two non-HLA susceptibility loci

Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic bile duct disease affecting 2.4-7.5% of individuals with inflammatory bowel disease. We performed a genome-wide association analysis of 2,466,182 SNPs in 715 individuals with PSC and 2,962 controls, followed by replication in 1,025 PSC cases and 2,174 controls. We detected non-HLA associations at rs3197999 in MST1 and rs6720394 near BCL2L11 (combined P = 1.1 × 10?1? and P = 4.1 × 10??, respectively).     

Forecast Combinations in a DSGE‐VAR Lab

We explore the benefits of forecast combinations based on forecast‐encompassing tests compared to simple averages and to Bates–Granger combinations. We also consider a new combination algorithm that fuses test‐based and Bates–Granger weighting. For a realistic simulation design, we generate multivariate time series samples from a macroeconomic DSGE‐VAR (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium–vector autoregressive) model. Results generally support Bates–Granger over uniform weighting, whereas benefits of test‐based weights depend on the sample size and on the prediction horizon. In a corresponding application to real‐world data, simple averaging performs best. Uniform averages may be the weighting scheme that is most robust to empirically observed irregularities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testament to conversations on critical systems thinking between two systems practitioners

This is a testament to conversations held in Berne and Fribourg, Switzerland, in late 1988. The main theme that we present concerns seeking to find an adequate epistemology for systems practice, to find a truly critical approach, by shifting our interests from systems science to systems rationality (i.e., by reaching out toward a systems epistemological ideal) and by dealing with sociological phenomena such as the effects of material conditions and false consciousness and inequalities associated with these. Social rationalities relating to positivism, interpretivism, and critique are considered. Limitations and legitimacies of these rationalities in social contexts are made explicit in these discussions.Conversations were held in Berne and Fribourg, Switzerland, between 30 November and 5 December 1988.     

Deep carbon export from a Southern Ocean iron-fertilized diatom bloom

Fertilization of the ocean by adding iron compounds has induced diatom-dominated phytoplankton blooms accompanied by considerable carbon dioxide drawdown in the ocean surface layer. However, because the fate of bloom biomass could not be adequately resolved in these experiments, the timescales of carbon sequestration from the atmosphere are uncertain. Here we report the results of a five-week experiment carried out in the closed core of a vertically coherent, mesoscale eddy of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, during which we tracked sinking particles from the surface to the deep-sea floor. A large diatom bloom peaked in the fourth week after fertilization. This was followed by mass mortality of several diatom species that formed rapidly sinking, mucilaginous aggregates of entangled cells and chains. Taken together, multiple lines of evidence-although each with important uncertainties-lead us to conclude that at least half the bloom biomass sank far below a depth of 1,000 metres and that a substantial portion is likely to have reached the sea floor. Thus, iron-fertilized diatom blooms may sequester carbon for timescales of centuries in ocean bottom water and for longer in the sediments.     

Functional and spatial segregation of secretory vesicle pools according to vesicle age

Synaptic terminals and neuroendocrine cells are packed with secretory vesicles, only a few of which are docked at the plasma membrane and readily releasable. The remainder are thought to constitute a large cytoplasmic reserve pool awaiting recruitment into the readily releasable pool (RRP) for exocytosis. How vesicles are prioritized in recruitment is still unknown: the choice could be random, or else the oldest or the newest ones might be favoured. Here we show, using a fluorescent cargo protein that changes colour with time, that vesicles in bovine adrenal chromaffin cells segregate into distinct populations, based on age. Newly assembled vesicles are immobile (morphologically docked) at the plasma membrane shortly after biogenesis, whereas older vesicles are mobile and located deeper in the cell. Different secretagogues selectively release vesicles from the RRP or, surprisingly, selectively from the deeper cytoplasmic pool. Thus, far from being equal, vesicles are segregated functionally and spatially according to age.