Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

Imaging of oxygen and hypoxia in cell and tissue samples

Molecular oxygen (O₂) is a key player in cell mitochondrial function, redox balance and oxidative stress, normal tissue function and many common disease states. Various chemical, physical and biological methods have been proposed for measurement, real-time monitoring and imaging of O₂ concentration, state of decreased O₂ (hypoxia) and related parameters in cells and tissue. Here, we review the established and emerging optical microscopy techniques allowing to visualize O₂ levels in cells and tissue samples, mostly under in vitro and ex vivo, but also under in vivo settings. Particular examples include fluorescent hypoxia stains, fluorescent protein reporter systems, phosphorescent probes and nanosensors of different types. These techniques allow high-resolution mapping of O₂ gradients in live or post-mortem tissue, in 2D or 3D, qualitatively or quantitatively. They enable control and monitoring of oxygenation conditions and their correlation with other biomarkers of cell and tissue function. Comparison of these techniques and corresponding imaging setups, their analytical capabilities and typical applications are given.     

MYH9 is associated with nondiabetic end-stage renal disease in African Americans

As end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has a four times higher incidence in African Americans compared to European Americans, we hypothesized that susceptibility alleles for ESRD have a higher frequency in the West African than the European gene pool. We carried out a genome-wide admixture scan in 1,372 ESRD cases and 806 controls and found a highly significant association between excess African ancestry and nondiabetic ESRD (lod score = 5.70) but not diabetic ESRD (lod = 0.47) on chromosome 22q12. Each copy of the European ancestral allele conferred a relative risk of 0.50 (95% CI = 0.39-0.63) compared to African ancestry. Multiple common SNPs (allele frequencies ranging from 0.2 to 0.6) in the gene encoding nonmuscle myosin heavy chain type II isoform A (MYH9) were associated with two to four times greater risk of nondiabetic ESRD and accounted for a large proportion of the excess risk of ESRD observed in African compared to European Americans.     

Common variants near MC4R are associated with fat mass, weight and risk of obesity

To identify common variants influencing body mass index (BMI), we analyzed genome-wide association data from 16,876 individuals of European descent. After previously reported variants in FTO, the strongest association signal (rs17782313, P = 2.9 x 10(-6)) mapped 188 kb downstream of MC4R (melanocortin-4 receptor), mutations of which are the leading cause of monogenic severe childhood-onset obesity. We confirmed the BMI association in 60,352 adults (per-allele effect = 0.05 Z-score units; P = 2.8 x 10(-15)) and 5,988 children aged 7-11 (0.13 Z-score units; P = 1.5 x 10(-8)). In case-control analyses (n = 10,583), the odds for severe childhood obesity reached 1.30 (P = 8.0 x 10(-11)). Furthermore, we observed overtransmission of the risk allele to obese offspring in 660 families (P (pedigree disequilibrium test average; PDT-avg) = 2.4 x 10(-4)). The SNP location and patterns of phenotypic associations are consistent with effects mediated through altered MC4R function. Our findings establish that common variants near MC4R influence fat mass, weight and obesity risk at the population level and reinforce the need for large-scale data integration to identify variants influencing continuous biomedical traits.     

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association data and large-scale replication identifies additional susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified multiple loci at which common variants modestly but reproducibly influence risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Established associations to common and rare variants explain only a small proportion of the heritability of T2D. As previously published analyses had limited power to identify variants with modest effects, we carried out meta-analysis of three T2D GWA scans comprising 10,128 individuals of European descent and approximately 2.2 million SNPs (directly genotyped and imputed), followed by replication testing in an independent sample with an effective sample size of up to 53,975. We detected at least six previously unknown loci with robust evidence for association, including the JAZF1 (P = 5.0 x 10(-14)), CDC123-CAMK1D (P = 1.2 x 10(-10)), TSPAN8-LGR5 (P = 1.1 x 10(-9)), THADA (P = 1.1 x 10(-9)), ADAMTS9 (P = 1.2 x 10(-8)) and NOTCH2 (P = 4.1 x 10(-8)) gene regions. Our results illustrate the value of large discovery and follow-up samples for gaining further insights into the inherited basis of T2D.     

A bibliographical study of the introduction of Lavoisier's Traité élémentaire de chimie into Great Britain and America

As the most famous woman scientist of the twentieth century, there has been no shortage of books and articles on the life and career of Marie Curie (1867–1934). Her role as a director of a laboratory-based research school in the new scientific field of radioactivity, a field which embraced both chemistry and physics, however, has never been examined. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the question of research schools, and Morrell, Ravetz, Geison, and Klosterman, amongst others, have written on this subject. Using, in part, the methodology of Morrell, this paper investigates the role of Marie Curie as a school director in the Paris Faculty in the years 1907–14, examining the work and characteristics of her school and assessing her effectiveness as a director.     

Myostatin and the skeletal muscle atrophy and hypertrophy signaling pathways

Myostatin, a member of the transforming growth factor-β superfamily, is a potent negative regulator of skeletal muscle growth and is conserved in many species, from rodents to humans. Myostatin inactivation can induce skeletal muscle hypertrophy, while its overexpression or systemic administration causes muscle atrophy. As it represents a potential target for stimulating muscle growth and/or preventing muscle wasting, myostatin regulation and functions in the control of muscle mass have been extensively studied. A wealth of data strongly suggests that alterations in skeletal muscle mass are associated with dysregulation in myostatin expression. Moreover, myostatin plays a central role in integrating/mediating anabolic and catabolic responses. Myostatin negatively regulates the activity of the Akt pathway, which promotes protein synthesis, and increases the activity of the ubiquitin–proteasome system to induce atrophy. Several new studies have brought new information on how myostatin may affect both ribosomal biogenesis and translation efficiency of specific mRNA subclasses. In addition, although myostatin has been identified as a modulator of the major catabolic pathways, including the ubiquitin–proteasome and the autophagy–lysosome systems, the underlying mechanisms are only partially understood. The goal of this review is to highlight outstanding questions about myostatin-mediated regulation of the anabolic and catabolic signaling pathways in skeletal muscle. Particular emphasis has been placed on (1) the cross-regulation between myostatin, the growth-promoting pathways and the proteolytic systems; (2) how myostatin inhibition leads to muscle hypertrophy; and (3) the regulation of translation by myostatin.     

Extremely low-coverage sequencing and imputation increases power for genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have proven to be a powerful method to identify common genetic variants contributing to susceptibility to common diseases. Here, we show that extremely low-coverage sequencing (0.1-0.5×) captures almost as much of the common (>5%) and low-frequency (1-5%) variation across the genome as SNP arrays. As an empirical demonstration, we show that genome-wide SNP genotypes can be inferred at a mean r(2) of 0.71 using off-target data (0.24× average coverage) in a whole-exome study of 909 samples. Using both simulated and real exome-sequencing data sets, we show that association statistics obtained using extremely low-coverage sequencing data attain similar P values at known associated variants as data from genotyping arrays, without an excess of false positives. Within the context of reductions in sample preparation and sequencing costs, funds invested in extremely low-coverage sequencing can yield several times the effective sample size of GWAS based on SNP array data and a commensurate increase in statistical power.