Forecasting an aggregate of cointegrated disaggregates

This study examines the problem of forecasting an aggregate of cointegrated disaggregates. It first establishes conditions under which forecasts of an aggregate variable obtained from a disaggregate VECM will be equal to those from an aggregate, univariate time series model, and develops a simple procedure for testing those conditions. The paper then uses Monte Carlo simulations to show, for a finite sample, that the proposed test has good size and power properties and that whether a model satisfies the aggregation conditions is closely related to out‐of‐sample forecast performance. The paper then shows that ignoring cointegration and specifying the disaggregate model as a VAR in differences can significantly affect analyses of aggregation, with the VAR‐based test for aggregation possibly leading to faulty inference and the differenced VAR forecasts potentially understating the benefits of disaggregate information. Finally, analysis of an empirical problem confirms the basic results. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Grazing impacts on sagebrush communities of central Utah

Twenty-three study sites were established in the sagebrush communities bordering Utah Lake. Relic (ungrazed) and grazed stands were represented in the sample. Differences in species composition, vegetation, and soil characteristics were assessed. Major differences in species composition and vegetative characteristics were due to the influence of grazing. Major changes were loss of native perennial grass cover, and increases in cover from introduced annual species. Differences in the soil characteristics were due to habitat rather than grazing influences.     

Transferability of tag SNPs in genetic association studies in multiple populations

A general question for linkage disequilibrium-based association studies is how power to detect an association is compromised when tag SNPs are chosen from data in one population sample and then deployed in another sample. Specifically, it is important to know how well tags picked from the HapMap DNA samples capture the variation in other samples. To address this, we collected dense data uniformly across the four HapMap population samples and eleven other population samples. We picked tag SNPs using genotype data we collected in the HapMap samples and then evaluated the effective coverage of these tags in comparison to the entire set of common variants observed in the other samples. We simulated case-control association studies in the non-HapMap samples under a disease model of modest risk, and we observed little loss in power. These results demonstrate that the HapMap DNA samples can be used to select tags for genome-wide association studies in many samples around the world.     

Interleukin-2 gene variation impairs regulatory T cell function and causes autoimmunity

Autoimmune diseases are thought to result from imbalances in normal immune physiology and regulation. Here, we show that autoimmune disease susceptibility and resistance alleles on mouse chromosome 3 (Idd3) correlate with differential expression of the key immunoregulatory cytokine interleukin-2 (IL-2). In order to test directly that an approximately twofold reduction in IL-2 underpins the Idd3-linked destabilization of immune homeostasis, we show that engineered haplodeficiency of Il2 gene expression not only reduces T cell IL-2 production by twofold but also mimics the autoimmune dysregulatory effects of the naturally occurring susceptibility alleles of Il2. Reduced IL-2 production achieved by either genetic mechanism correlates with reduced function of CD4(+) CD25(+) regulatory T cells, which are critical for maintaining immune homeostasis.     

Genome-wide meta-analysis increases to 71 the number of confirmed Crohn's disease susceptibility loci

We undertook a meta-analysis of six Crohn's disease genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comprising 6,333 affected individuals (cases) and 15,056 controls and followed up the top association signals in 15,694 cases, 14,026 controls and 414 parent-offspring trios. We identified 30 new susceptibility loci meeting genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10??). A series of in silico analyses highlighted particular genes within these loci and, together with manual curation, implicated functionally interesting candidate genes including SMAD3, ERAP2, IL10, IL2RA, TYK2, FUT2, DNMT3A, DENND1B, BACH2 and TAGAP. Combined with previously confirmed loci, these results identify 71 distinct loci with genome-wide significant evidence for association with Crohn's disease.     

Common variants at ABCA7, MS4A6A/MS4A4E, EPHA1, CD33 and CD2AP are associated with Alzheimer's disease

We sought to identify new susceptibility loci for Alzheimer's disease through a staged association study (GERAD+) and by testing suggestive loci reported by the Alzheimer's Disease Genetic Consortium (ADGC) in a companion paper. We undertook a combined analysis of four genome-wide association datasets (stage 1) and identified ten newly associated variants with P ≤ 1 × 10(-5). We tested these variants for association in an independent sample (stage 2). Three SNPs at two loci replicated and showed evidence for association in a further sample (stage 3). Meta-analyses of all data provided compelling evidence that ABCA7 (rs3764650, meta P = 4.5 × 10(-17); including ADGC data, meta P = 5.0 × 10(-21)) and the MS4A gene cluster (rs610932, meta P = 1.8 × 10(-14); including ADGC data, meta P = 1.2 × 10(-16)) are new Alzheimer's disease susceptibility loci. We also found independent evidence for association for three loci reported by the ADGC, which, when combined, showed genome-wide significance: CD2AP (GERAD+, P = 8.0 × 10(-4); including ADGC data, meta P = 8.6 × 10(-9)), CD33 (GERAD+, P = 2.2 × 10(-4); including ADGC data, meta P = 1.6 × 10(-9)) and EPHA1 (GERAD+, P = 3.4 × 10(-4); including ADGC data, meta P = 6.0 × 10(-10)).     

The crystal structure of a voltage-gated sodium channel

Voltage-gated sodium (Na(V)) channels initiate electrical signalling in excitable cells and are the molecular targets for drugs and disease mutations, but the structural basis for their voltage-dependent activation, ion selectivity and drug block is unknown. Here we report the crystal structure of a voltage-gated Na(+) channel from Arcobacter butzleri (NavAb) captured in a closed-pore conformation with four activated voltage sensors at 2.7?? resolution. The arginine gating charges make multiple hydrophilic interactions within the voltage sensor, including unanticipated hydrogen bonds to the protein backbone. Comparisons to previous open-pore potassium channel structures indicate that the voltage-sensor domains and the S4-S5 linkers dilate the central pore by pivoting together around a hinge at the base of the pore module. The NavAb selectivity filter is short, ～4.6?? wide, and water filled, with four acidic side chains surrounding the narrowest part of the ion conduction pathway. This unique structure presents a high-field-strength anionic coordination site, which confers Na(+) selectivity through partial dehydration via direct interaction with glutamate side chains. Fenestrations in the sides of the pore module are unexpectedly penetrated by fatty acyl chains that extend into the central cavity, and these portals are large enough for the entry of small, hydrophobic pore-blocking drugs. This structure provides the template for understanding electrical signalling in excitable cells and the actions of drugs used for pain, epilepsy and cardiac arrhythmia at the atomic level.     

HIV-1 adaptation to NK-cell-mediated immune pressure

Natural killer (NK) cells have an important role in the control of viral infections, recognizing virally infected cells through a variety of activating and inhibitory receptors. Epidemiological and functional studies have recently suggested that NK cells can also contribute to the control of HIV-1 infection through recognition of virally infected cells by both activating and inhibitory killer immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs). However, it remains unknown whether NK cells can directly mediate antiviral immune pressure in vivo in humans. Here we describe KIR-associated amino-acid polymorphisms in the HIV-1 sequence of chronically infected individuals, on a population level. We show that these KIR-associated HIV-1 sequence polymorphisms can enhance the binding of inhibitory KIRs to HIV-1-infected CD4(+) T cells, and reduce the antiviral activity of KIR-positive NK cells. These data demonstrate that KIR-positive NK cells can place immunological pressure on HIV-1, and that the virus can evade such NK-cell-mediated immune pressure by selecting for sequence polymorphisms, as was previously described for virus-specific T cells and neutralizing antibodies. NK cells might therefore have a previously underappreciated role in contributing to viral evolution.     

Ascaris suum draft genome

Parasitic diseases have a devastating, long-term impact on human health, welfare and food production worldwide. More than two billion people are infected with geohelminths, including the roundworms Ascaris (common roundworm), Necator and Ancylostoma (hookworms), and Trichuris (whipworm), mainly in developing or impoverished nations of Asia, Africa and Latin America. In humans, the diseases caused by these parasites result in about 135,000 deaths annually, with a global burden comparable with that of malaria or tuberculosis in disability-adjusted life years. Ascaris alone infects around 1.2 billion people and, in children, causes nutritional deficiency, impaired physical and cognitive development and, in severe cases, death. Ascaris also causes major production losses in pigs owing to reduced growth, failure to thrive and mortality. The Ascaris-swine model makes it possible to study the parasite, its relationship with the host, and ascariasis at the molecular level. To enable such molecular studies, we report the 273 megabase draft genome of Ascaris suum and compare it with other nematode genomes. This genome has low repeat content (4.4%) and encodes about 18,500 protein-coding genes. Notably, the A. suum secretome (about 750 molecules) is rich in peptidases linked to the penetration and degradation of host tissues, and an assemblage of molecules likely to modulate or evade host immune responses. This genome provides a comprehensive resource to the scientific community and underpins the development of new and urgently needed interventions (drugs, vaccines and diagnostic tests) against ascariasis and other nematodiases.