Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?

Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in‐sample fit and moving‐window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit‐root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out‐of‐sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in‐sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ablation of cyclase-associated protein 2 (CAP2) leads to cardiomyopathy

Cyclase-associated proteins are highly conserved proteins that have a role in the regulation of actin dynamics. Higher eukaryotes have two isoforms, CAP1 and CAP2. To study the in vivo function of CAP2, we generated mice in which the CAP2 gene was inactivated by a gene-trap approach. Mutant mice showed a decrease in body weight and had a decreased survival rate. Further, they developed a severe cardiac defect marked by dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) associated with drastic reduction in basal heart rate and prolongations in atrial and ventricular conduction times. Moreover, CAP2-deficient myofibrils exhibited reduced cooperativity of calcium-regulated force development. At the microscopic level, we observed disarrayed sarcomeres with development of fibrosis. We analyzed CAP2’s role in actin assembly and found that it sequesters G-actin and efficiently fragments filaments. This activity resides completely in its WASP homology domain. Thus CAP2 is an essential component of the myocardial sarcomere and is essential for physiological functioning of the cardiac system, and a deficiency leads to DCM and various cardiac defects.     

The implications of viral reservoirs on the elite control of HIV-1 infection

The mechanisms by which a small percentage of HIV-1 infected individuals known as elite suppressors or controllers are able to control viral replication are not fully understood. Early cases of viremic control were attributed to infection with defective virus, but subsequent work has demonstrated that infection with a defective virus is not the exclusive cause of control. Replication-competent virus has been isolated from patients who control viral replication, and studies have demonstrated that evolution occurs in plasma virus but not in virus isolates from the latent reservoir. Additionally, transmission pair studies have demonstrated that patients infected with similar viruses can have dramatically different outcomes of infection. An increased understanding of the viral factors associated with control is important to understand the interplay between viral replication and host control, and has implications for the design of an effective therapeutic vaccine that can lead to a functional cure of HIV-1 infection.