Regional econometric income forecast accuracy

Econometric prediction accuracy for personal income forecasts is examined for a region of the United States. Previously published regional structural equation model (RSEM) forecasts exist ex ante for the state of New Mexico and its three largest metropolitan statistical areas: Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe. Quarterly data between 1983 and 2000 are utilized at the state level. For Albuquerque, annual data from 1983 through 1999 are used. For Las Cruces and Santa Fe, annual data from 1990 through 1999 are employed. Univariate time series, vector autoregressions and random walks are used as the comparison criteria against structural equation simulations. Results indicate that ex ante RSEM forecasts achieved higher accuracy than those simulations associated with univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks for the state of New Mexico. The track records of the structural econometric models for Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe are less impressive. In some cases, VAR benchmarks prove more reliable than RSEM income forecasts. In other cases, the RSEM forecasts are less accurate than random walk alternatives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Selection of Value‐at‐Risk models

Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) is widely used as a tool for measuring the market risk of asset portfolios. However, alternative VaR implementations are known to yield fairly different VaR forecasts. Hence, every use of VaR requires choosing among alternative forecasting models. This paper undertakes two case studies in model selection, for the S&P 500 index and India's NSE‐50 index, at the 95% and 99% levels. We employ a two‐stage model selection procedure. In the first stage we test a class of models for statistical accuracy. If multiple models survive rejection with the tests, we perform a second stage filtering of the surviving models using subjective loss functions. This two‐stage model selection procedure does prove to be useful in choosing a VaR model, while only incompletely addressing the problem. These case studies give us some evidence about the strengths and limitations of present knowledge on estimation and testing for VaR. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CMOS射频集成电路的设计

本书是《10^9赫射频（RF）集成电路设计指南》修订后的第二版。自1998年第一版问世后，RFCMOS的商品化突飞猛进，不少公司用CMOS技术制造RF线路，大学也把CMOS作为教学内容，10^9赫频率上的噪声系数在实际线路中已低于1dB，优良的RF器件模型也相继出现……这些都为本书的适时修订提供了充分条件。     

Claudin-1 is a hepatitis C virus co-receptor required for a late step in entry

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of cirrhosis and liver cancer worldwide. A better understanding of the viral life cycle, including the mechanisms of entry into host cells, is needed to identify novel therapeutic targets. Although HCV entry requires the CD81 co-receptor, and other host molecules have been implicated, at least one factor critical to this process remains unknown (reviewed in refs 1-3). Using an iterative expression cloning approach we identified claudin-1 (CLDN1), a tight junction component that is highly expressed in the liver, as essential for HCV entry. CLDN1 is required for HCV infection of human hepatoma cell lines and is the first factor to confer susceptibility to HCV when ectopically expressed in non-hepatic cells. Discrete residues within the first extracellular loop (EL1) of CLDN1, but not protein interaction motifs in intracellular domains, are critical for HCV entry. Moreover, antibodies directed against an epitope inserted in the CLDN1 EL1 block HCV infection. The kinetics of this inhibition indicate that CLDN1 acts late in the entry process, after virus binding and interaction with the HCV co-receptor CD81. With CLDN1 we have identified a novel key factor for HCV entry and a new target for antiviral drug development.     

Optical parameters induced by phase transformation in RF magnetron sputtered TiO2nanostructured thin films

Pure TiO2 thin films were deposited onto quartz substrates using a ceramic TiO2 target at an elevated substrate temperature of 573 K by RF magnetron sputtering, and an analysis of structural, optical and photoluminescence characteristics of the films upon phase transformation is reported in this paper. Structural investigations using X-ray diffraction revealed that the as-deposited film was amorphous in nature. Thermal annealing for 2 h at 873 K in air resulted in the formation of anatase phase, and a phase transformation to rutile was observed at 1073 K.An increase in grain size and an improvement in crystallinity were also observed on annealing. Rod- like rutile crystallites were observed in the SEM images of the film annealed at 1273 K. As-deposited films and films annealed up to 1073 K were highly transparent in the visible region with a transparency 480%. Optical band gap of the films decreased upon thermal annealing which is attributed to phase transformation from amorphous to anatase and then to rutile. Optical parameters such as refractive index, optical conductivity and optical dielectric constant increased with increase in annealing temperature. Since rutile is the optically active phase, the superior refractive index of the film annealed at 1073 K along with its high transparency in visible region suggests the application of this film in antireflective coatings. Photoluminescence emission of maximum intensity was observed for the film annealed at 873 K, which exhibits anatase phase. Intense blue emission observed in this film makes it suitable for use in optoelectronic display devices.