Experience in combining subjective and quantitative forecasts of open market rates

This paper presents a method of combining subjective information from open-market operators with results from a time-series forecasting model. Empirical results of forecasts for interest rates of bank reserves are presented.     

Histamine release and mast cell degranulation induced by 2-4 dinitrophenol in rat tissues

Resumen El 2–4-dinitrofenol es capaz de producir degranulación rápida aunque parcial de mastocitos y liberación de histamina de los tejidos de la rata in vitro. Estos efectos solamente pueden ser demostrados en tejidos mantenidos a baja temperatura antes del tratamiento; son inhibidos por glucosa. La estimulación del consumo de oxígeno no parece ser la causa de los efectos del dinitrofenol.     

Forecasting the conditional covariance matrix of a portfolio under long‐run temporal dependence

Long‐range persistence in volatility is widely modelled and forecast in terms of the so‐called fractional integrated models. These models are mostly applied in the univariate framework, since the extension to the multivariate context of assets portfolios, while relevant, is not straightforward. We discuss and apply a procedure which is able to forecast the multivariate volatility of a portfolio including assets with long memory. The main advantage of this model is that it is feasible enough to be applied on large‐scale portfolios, solving the problem of dealing with extremely complex likelihood functions which typically arises in this context. An application of this procedure to a portfolio of five daily exchange rate series shows that the out‐of‐sample forecasts for the multivariate volatility are improved under several loss functions when the long‐range dependence property of the portfolio assets is explicitly accounted for. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Conventional taxonomy obscures deep divergence between Pacific and Atlantic corals

Only 17% of 111 reef-building coral genera and none of the 18 coral families with reef-builders are considered endemic to the Atlantic, whereas the corresponding percentages for the Indo-west Pacific are 76% and 39%. These figures depend on the assumption that genera and families spanning the two provinces belong to the same lineages (that is, they are monophyletic). Here we show that this assumption is incorrect on the basis of analyses of mitochondrial and nuclear genes. Pervasive morphological convergence at the family level has obscured the evolutionary distinctiveness of Atlantic corals. Some Atlantic genera conventionally assigned to different families are more closely related to each other than they are to their respective Pacific 'congeners'. Nine of the 27 genera of reef-building Atlantic corals belong to this previously unrecognized lineage, which probably diverged over 34 million years ago. Although Pacific reefs have larger numbers of more narrowly distributed species, and therefore rank higher in biodiversity hotspot analyses, the deep evolutionary distinctiveness of many Atlantic corals should also be considered when setting conservation priorities.     

Essential role for the p110delta phosphoinositide 3-kinase in the allergic response

Inflammatory substances released by mast cells induce and maintain the allergic response. Mast cell differentiation and activation are regulated, respectively, by stem cell factor (SCF; also known as Kit ligand) and by allergen in complex with allergen-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE). Activated SCF receptors and high-affinity receptors for IgE (FcvarepsilonRI) engage phosphoinositide 3-kinases (PI(3)Ks) to generate intracellular lipid second messenger signals. Here, we report that genetic or pharmacological inactivation of the p110delta isoform of PI(3)K in mast cells leads to defective SCF-mediated in vitro proliferation, adhesion and migration, and to impaired allergen-IgE-induced degranulation and cytokine release. Inactivation of p110delta protects mice against anaphylactic allergic responses. These results identify p110delta as a new target for therapeutic intervention in allergy and mast-cell-related pathologies.