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31.
Stone L  Olinky R  Huppert A 《Nature》2007,446(7135):533-536
Seasonality is a driving force that has a major effect on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural systems and their populations. This is especially true for the transmission of common infectious diseases (such as influenza, measles, chickenpox and pertussis), and is of great relevance for host-parasite relationships in general. Here we gain further insights into the nonlinear dynamics of recurrent diseases through the analysis of the classical seasonally forced SIR (susceptible, infectious or recovered) epidemic model. Our analysis differs from other modelling studies in that the focus is more on post-epidemic dynamics than the outbreak itself. Despite the mathematical intractability of the forced SIR model, we identify a new threshold effect and give clear analytical conditions for predicting the occurrence of either a future epidemic outbreak, or a 'skip'-a year in which an epidemic fails to initiate. The threshold is determined by the population's susceptibility measured after the last outbreak and the rate at which new susceptible individuals are recruited into the population. Moreover, the time of occurrence (that is, the phase) of an outbreak proves to be a useful parameter that carries important epidemiological information. In forced systems, seasonal changes can prevent late-peaking diseases (that is, those having high phase) from spreading widely, thereby increasing population susceptibility, and controlling the triggering and intensity of future epidemics. These principles yield forecasting tools that should have relevance for the study of newly emerging and re-emerging diseases controlled by seasonal vectors.  相似文献   
32.
B Blasius  A Huppert  L Stone 《Nature》1999,399(6734):354-359
Population cycles that persist in time and are synchronized over space pervade ecological systems, but their underlying causes remain a long-standing enigma. Here we examine the synchronization of complex population oscillations in networks of model communities and in natural systems, where phenomena such as unusual '4- and 10-year cycle' of wildlife are often found. In the proposed spatial model, each local patch sustains a three-level trophic system composed of interacting predators, consumers and vegetation. Populations oscillate regularly and periodically in phase, but with irregular and chaotic peaks together in abundance-twin realistic features that are not found in standard ecological models. In a spatial lattice of patches, only small amounts of local migration are required to induce broad-scale 'phase synchronization, with all populations in the lattice phase-locking to the same collective rhythm. Peak population abundances, however, remain chaotic and largely uncorrelated. Although synchronization is often perceived as being detrimental to spatially structured populations, phase synchronization leads to the emergence of complex chaotic travelling-wave structures which may be crucial for species persistence.  相似文献   
33.
Voyager 2 crossed the solar wind termination shock at 83.7 au in the southern hemisphere, approximately 10 au closer to the Sun than found by Voyager 1 in the north. This asymmetry could indicate an asymmetric pressure from an interstellar magnetic field, from transient-induced shock motion, or from the solar wind dynamic pressure. Here we report that the intensity of 4-5 MeV protons accelerated by the shock near Voyager 2 was three times that observed concurrently by Voyager 1, indicating differences in the shock at the two locations. (Companion papers report on the plasma, magnetic field, plasma-wave and lower energy particle observations at the shock.) Voyager 2 did not find the source of anomalous cosmic rays at the shock, suggesting that the source is elsewhere on the shock or in the heliosheath. The small intensity gradient of Galactic cosmic ray helium indicates that either the gradient is further out in the heliosheath or the local interstellar Galactic cosmic ray intensity is lower than expected.  相似文献   
34.
Macular degeneration is the most common cause of legal blindness in older patients in developed countries. Best's vitelliform dystrophy is an early-onset, autosomal dominant form of macular degeneration characterized by an egg-yolk-like collection of lipofuscin beneath the pigment epithelium of the retinal macula. Fifty-seven members of a five-generation family affected with this disease were studied. A combination of ophthalmoscopy and electro-oculography was used for diagnosis; 29 patients were found to be affected and 16 unaffected. Linkage analysis mapped the disease-causing gene to chromosome 11q13. Three markers in this region were found to be significantly linked (Zmax > 3.0) to the disease. Multipoint analysis yielded a maximum Lod score of 9.3 in the interval between markers INT2 and D11S871.  相似文献   
35.
P J Stone  A D Kelman  F M Sinex 《Nature》1974,251(5477):736-737
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36.
Summary Norepinephrine has been identified as the principal catecholamine in individual neurons of the synganglion of an arthropod, the cattle tickBoophilus microplus. This suggests that norepinephrine may have a hitherto unsuspected major physiological role in at least one group of invertebrates.  相似文献   
37.
Surface tension gives gas bubbles their perfect spherical shape by minimizing the surface area for a given volume. Here we show that gas bubbles and liquid drops can exist in stable, non-spherical shapes if the surface is covered, or 'armoured', with a close-packed monolayer of particles. When two spherical armoured bubbles are fused, jamming of the particles on the interface supports the unequal stresses that are necessary to stabilize a non-spherical shape.  相似文献   
38.
Fanconi anemia is a genetic disease characterized by genomic instability and cancer predisposition. Nine genes involved in Fanconi anemia have been identified; their products participate in a DNA damage-response network involving BRCA1 and BRCA2 (refs. 2,3). We previously purified a Fanconi anemia core complex containing the FANCL ubiquitin ligase and six other Fanconi anemia-associated proteins. Each protein in this complex is essential for monoubiquitination of FANCD2, a key reaction in the Fanconi anemia DNA damage-response pathway. Here we show that another component of this complex, FAAP250, is mutant in individuals with Fanconi anemia of a new complementation group (FA-M). FAAP250 or FANCM has sequence similarity to known DNA-repair proteins, including archaeal Hef, yeast MPH1 and human ERCC4 or XPF. FANCM can dissociate DNA triplex, possibly owing to its ability to translocate on duplex DNA. FANCM is essential for monoubiquitination of FANCD2 and becomes hyperphosphorylated in response to DNA damage. Our data suggest an evolutionary link between Fanconi anemia-associated proteins and DNA repair; FANCM may act as an engine that translocates the Fanconi anemia core complex along DNA.  相似文献   
39.
Der Raum, Carnap’s earliest published work, finds him largely a follower of Husserl. In particular, he holds a distinctively Husserlian conception of the synthetic a priori—a view, I will suggest, paradigmatic of what he would later reject as ‘metaphysics’. His main purpose is to reconcile that Husserlian view with the theory of general relativity. On the other hand, he has already broken with Husserl, and in ways which foreshadow later developments in his thought. Especially important in this respect is his use of Hans Driesch’s Ordnungslehre.  相似文献   
40.
Are noradrenaline excitations artefacts?   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
T W Stone 《Nature》1971,234(5325):145-146
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