Quantitation of proliferative mucosal cells of the Mongolian gerbil on a weight basis

Summary Quantitation of proliferative activity of the intestine of the gerbil shows a substantial decrease in proliferative activity as compared to the mouse. The use of dry vs wet weights proved to have no bearing on calculations of proliferative activity. The gerbil may prove a useful model for drug and radiation experimentation.This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant No. GB35522. Reprint requests should be addressed to: H.S., Health Physics, Merck Sharp & Dohme Research Laboratories, West Point (Pennsylvania 19486, USA).     

A model of calibration for subjective probability distributions and its application to aggregation of judgements

A simple model is proposed of the statistical structure underlying the calibration of auditors' subjective probability distributions for account balances, and potentially for other unknown quantities. The model relates calibration curve shape to two parameters which represent over- or underconfidence and over- or underestimation. It is fitted to data from expert auditors. Different types of account appear to have different calibration characteristics. The model helps predict approximately the effects on calibration of aggregating individual subject distributions. Aggregation improves accuracy, but produces a strong tendency towards underconfidence. One aggregation method, predicting the best judgement in the group and using it as the group judgement, is found to be quite effective, much better than averaging the fractiles of individual distributions.     

The essential signature of a massive starburst in a distant quasar

Observations of carbon monoxide emission in high-redshift (zeta > 2) galaxies indicate the presence of large amounts of molecular gas. Many of these galaxies contain an active galactic nucleus powered by accretion of gas onto a supermassive black hole, and a key question is whether their extremely high infrared luminosities result from the active galactic nucleus, from bursts of massive star formation (associated with the molecular gas), or both. In the Milky Way, high-mass stars form in the dense cores of interstellar molecular clouds, where gas densities are n(H2) > 10(5) cm(-3) (refs 1, 2). Recent surveys show that virtually all galactic sites of high-mass star formation have similarly high densities. The bulk of the cloud material traced by CO observations, however, is at a much lower density. For galaxies in the local Universe, the HCN molecule is an effective tracer of high-density molecular gas. Here we report observations of HCN emission from the infrared-luminous 'Cloverleaf' quasar (at a redshift zeta = 2.5579). The HCN line luminosity indicates the presence of 10 billion solar masses of very dense gas, an essential feature of an immense starburst, which contributes, together with the active galactic nucleus it harbours, to its high infrared luminosity.     

Stimulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold event.