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21.
This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months. 相似文献
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The upper atmospheres of the four Solar System giant planets exhibit high temperatures that cannot be explained by the absorption of sunlight. In the case of Saturn the temperatures predicted by models of solar heating are approximately 200 K, compared to temperatures of approximately 400 K observed independently in the polar regions and at 30 degrees latitude. This unexplained 'energy crisis' represents a major gap in our understanding of these planets' atmospheres. An important candidate for the source of the missing energy is the magnetosphere, which injects energy mostly in the polar regions of the planet. This polar energy input is believed to be sufficient to explain the observed temperatures, provided that it is efficiently redistributed globally by winds, a process that is not well understood. Here we show, using a numerical model, that the net effect of the winds driven by the polar energy inputs is not to heat but to cool the low-latitude thermosphere. This surprising result allows us to rule out known polar energy inputs as the solution to the energy crisis at Saturn. There is either an unknown--and large--source of polar energy, or, more probably, some other process heats low latitudes directly. 相似文献
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International Consortium for Blood Pressure Genome-Wide Association Studies Ehret GB Munroe PB Rice KM Bochud M Johnson AD Chasman DI Smith AV Tobin MD Verwoert GC Hwang SJ Pihur V Vollenweider P O'Reilly PF Amin N Bragg-Gresham JL Teumer A Glazer NL Launer L Zhao JH Aulchenko Y Heath S Sõber S Parsa A Luan J Arora P Dehghan A Zhang F Lucas G Hicks AA Jackson AU Peden JF Tanaka T Wild SH Rudan I Igl W Milaneschi Y Parker AN Fava C Chambers JC Fox ER Kumari M Go MJ van der Harst P Kao WH 《Nature》2011,478(7367):103-109
Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140?mm?Hg systolic blood pressure or ≥90?mm?Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention. 相似文献
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Helicases are vital enzymes that carry out strand separation of duplex nucleic acids during replication, repair and recombination. Bacteriophage T7 gene product 4 is a model hexameric helicase that has been observed to use dTTP, but not ATP, to unwind double-stranded (ds)DNA as it translocates from 5' to 3' along single-stranded (ss)DNA. Whether and how different subunits of the helicase coordinate their chemo-mechanical activities and DNA binding during translocation is still under debate. Here we address this question using a single-molecule approach to monitor helicase unwinding. We found that T7 helicase does in fact unwind dsDNA in the presence of ATP and that the unwinding rate is even faster than that with dTTP. However, unwinding traces showed a remarkable sawtooth pattern where processive unwinding was repeatedly interrupted by sudden slippage events, ultimately preventing unwinding over a substantial distance. This behaviour was not observed with dTTP alone and was greatly reduced when ATP solution was supplemented with a small amount of dTTP. These findings presented an opportunity to use nucleotide mixtures to investigate helicase subunit coordination. We found that T7 helicase binds and hydrolyses ATP and dTTP by competitive kinetics such that the unwinding rate is dictated simply by their respective maximum rates V(max), Michaelis constants K(M) and concentrations. In contrast, processivity does not follow a simple competitive behaviour and shows a cooperative dependence on nucleotide concentrations. This does not agree with an uncoordinated mechanism where each subunit functions independently, but supports a model where nearly all subunits coordinate their chemo-mechanical activities and DNA binding. Our data indicate that only one subunit at a time can accept a nucleotide while other subunits are nucleotide-ligated and thus they interact with the DNA to ensure processivity. Such subunit coordination may be general to many ring-shaped helicases and reveals a potential mechanism for regulation of DNA unwinding during replication. 相似文献
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Extended megadroughts in the southwestern United States during Pleistocene interglacials 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Fawcett PJ Werne JP Anderson RS Heikoop JM Brown ET Berke MA Smith SJ Goff F Donohoo-Hurley L Cisneros-Dozal LM Schouten S Sinninghe Damsté JS Huang Y Toney J Fessenden J WoldeGabriel G Atudorei V Geissman JW Allen CD 《Nature》2011,470(7335):518-521
The potential for increased drought frequency and severity linked to anthropogenic climate change in the semi-arid regions of the southwestern United States (US) is a serious concern. Multi-year droughts during the instrumental period and decadal-length droughts of the past two millennia were shorter and climatically different from the future permanent, 'dust-bowl-like' megadrought conditions, lasting decades to a century, that are predicted as a consequence of warming. So far, it has been unclear whether or not such megadroughts occurred in the southwestern US, and, if so, with what regularity and intensity. Here we show that periods of aridity lasting centuries to millennia occurred in the southwestern US during mid-Pleistocene interglacials. Using molecular palaeotemperature proxies to reconstruct the mean annual temperature (MAT) in mid-Pleistocene lacustrine sediment from the Valles Caldera, New Mexico, we found that the driest conditions occurred during the warmest phases of interglacials, when the MAT was comparable to or higher than the modern MAT. A collapse of drought-tolerant C(4) plant communities during these warm, dry intervals indicates a significant reduction in summer precipitation, possibly in response to a poleward migration of the subtropical dry zone. Three MAT cycles ~2?°C in amplitude occurred within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 and seem to correspond to the muted precessional cycles within this interglacial. In comparison with MIS 11, MIS 13 experienced higher precessional-cycle amplitudes, larger variations in MAT (4-6?°C) and a longer period of extended warmth, suggesting that local insolation variations were important to interglacial climatic variability in the southwestern US. Comparison of the early MIS 11 climate record with the Holocene record shows many similarities and implies that, in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, the region should be entering a cooler and wetter phase. 相似文献