Forecasting UK industrial production over the business cycle

This paper examines the information available through leading indicators for modelling and forecasting the UK quarterly index of production. Both linear and non‐linear specifications are examined, with the latter being of the Markov‐switching type as used in many recent business cycle applications. The Markov‐switching models perform relatively poorly in forecasting the 1990s production recession, but a three‐indicator linear specification does well. The leading indicator variables in this latter model include a short‐term interest rate, the stock market dividend yield and the optimism balance from the quarterly CBI survey. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

INTERMEDIUM-C, a modifier of lateral spikelet fertility in barley, is an ortholog of the maize domestication gene TEOSINTE BRANCHED 1

The domestication of cereals has involved common changes in morphological features, such as seed size, seed retention and modification of vegetative and inflorescence architecture that ultimately contributed to an increase in harvested yield. In barley, this process has resulted in two different cultivated types, two-rowed and six-rowed forms, both derived from the wild two-rowed ancestor, with archaeo-botanical evidence indicating the origin of six-rowed barley early in the domestication of the species, some 8,600-8,000 years ago. Variation at SIX-ROWED SPIKE 1 (VRS1) is sufficient to control this phenotype. However, phenotypes imposed by VRS1 alleles are modified by alleles at the INTERMEDIUM-C (INT-C) locus. Here we show that INT-C is an ortholog of the maize domestication gene TEOSINTE BRANCHED 1 (TB1) and identify 17 coding mutations in barley TB1 correlated with lateral spikelet fertility phenotypes.