Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

Invertebrate communities,sediment parameters and food availability of intertidal soft-sediment ecosystems on the north coast of British Columbia,Canada

ABSTRACT

The Skeena River estuary supports commercial and culturally important salmon fisheries. However, considerable development has occurred in the area, and more has been proposed. If anthropogenic development degrades this critical habitat, the Skeena salmon run, that every year contributes $110 million to local economies, may be negatively impacted. Benthic invertebrates are common indicator species, as they often respond to disturbances before commercial species, warning of potential impacts. Unfortunately, invertebrates in the Skeena estuary have not been extensively studied, and we lack the detailed understanding of their community structure and dynamics for them to serve as indicator species in this region. Therefore, present conditions of the Skeena estuary are established here (invertebrate community, sediment conditions and food availability), in order to provide the data required both to anticipate changes associated with potential anthropogenic disturbances and to detect changes in this system if development occurs.     

武汉市道路绿化带景观多样性研究

采用景观多样性的分析方法,探讨了4种景观类型:植物群落组成、种数、层次、色彩在武汉道路绿化带上的应用以及对道路绿化带的影响.结果表明:从植物群落生活型组成上分析,武汉市各道路绿化带植物景观多样性差异不大,整体组成单一,类型较少;从种数上,景观多样性指数最高,说明不同地段道路绿化带植物种数差别较大;从层次上看,多样性指数偏高,说明不同路段绿化带层次上差异较大;而色彩的景观优势度最大,说明道路绿化带中某一类色彩占优势.     

惰化设计方法及其在煤粉干燥工艺中的应用

介绍了可燃粉尘极限氧含量的测试方法和测试设备,并给出了几种常见可燃粉尘的极限氧含量.根据气体均匀混合假设,导出了采用加压或抽真空惰化情况下惰化次数的计算方法和采用通流惰化情况下惰化时间的计算公式.提出了估算惰化流量的经验公式.给出了一个煤粉干燥工艺惰化设计的实例.正常运行时,惰化气体流量可通过循环风量和漏风率估算.在短时间停产时,应采用较小的惰化流量(每小时1~2个设备容积)维持惰化气氛.     

哈特曼装置上粉尘浓度的测量

粉尘浓度和湍流速度对粉尘爆炸猛烈程度和粉尘云最小着火能的测试有很大影响.针对1.2 L哈特曼装置上的粉尘浓度进行了测量研究,并对测量数据进行了分析讨论,得到了1.2 L哈特曼管上不同位置高度的粉尘浓度随时间的变化曲线.粉尘浓度随哈特曼管高度位置分布很不均匀.对于哈特曼管电极位置高度,当点火延迟时间170 ms、计算浓度为500 g/m3时,其粉尘测量浓度近似等于计算浓度;当计算浓度低于500 g/m3时,其测量浓度高于计算浓度.当计算浓度大于500 g/m3时,测量浓度低于计算浓度.哈特曼管上粉尘浓度随高度分布的获得,为最小着火能在不同装置上的测试比较提供了数据,为粉尘爆炸数学模型的检验提供了...     

页岩结构完整性评价的热-流体-变形耦合理论与方法

该文应用连续介质力学理论建立了与蒸汽注入过程相关的热-流-变形耦合问题的基本数学模型;应用全隐式顺序Galerkin有限元数值解方案,对注蒸汽井的热-流体-变形耦合过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,由于低渗透页岩地层流体高温膨胀导致的超高孔隙压力,有可能产生拉张应力,严重时会导致地层破裂。     

Is the valid species Synchaeta monopus Plate, 1889 (Rotifera: Monogononta) a product of preparation artefacts?

The morphology of soft-bodied rotifers, including those of Synchaeta spp, can be strongly affected by preparation artefacts including contraction and deformation. The long-standing, valid species Synchaeta monopus is known exclusively from ethanol- or formaldehyde-preserved material and no live specimens of it have ever been described. Although this alone is cause for concern, we could also reproduce unique characteristics diagnostic for this species (e.g. the swollen body and the rudimental foot) by subjecting specimens of Synchaeta pectinata to the preservation conditions under which it was first described. This proxy experiment and comparisons to other Synchaeta species indicate that literature occurrences of S. monopus likely represent preserved and deformed specimens of Synchaeta cecilia or other marine species of Synchaeta, thereby highlighting the importance of thorough morphological investigations of the habitus using live specimens and of features that are unaffected by preservation (e.g. the trophi). We therefore recommend that S. monopus be listed as a species inquirenda until topotypes are examined. Furthermore, in ecological studies including rotifers, where the examination of preserved material is often unavoidable, we stress that light-microscopical images of the habitus and trophi of the specimens minimally be included to facilitate independent verification of the species assignments.     

Asynchronous reproduction in three species of crocodilians in south-eastern Amazonia

We studied reproduction of three species of crocodilians, Paleosuchus trigonatus, Caiman crocodilus and Melanosuchus niger, in the Xingu River, near the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam. The periods of laying and hatching of eggs were estimated for each nest before (2013–2014) and after (2016–2017) the river was dammed and the reservoir was formed. Nesting of the three species occurred between August and December, but was largely asynchronous; nest construction peaked in September for P. trigonatus, October for M. niger and November for C. crocodilus. Reservoir filling had little effect on the laying period of any of the species. Nests of P. trigonatus and M. niger were always within 0–12 m of the bank, whereas nests of C. crocodilus, which nests later in the season when flooding is more likely, were up to 100 m from the nearest water body. There was no relationship between distance from water and the number of eggs in nests, suggesting that larger and presumably more experienced females do not lay at different distances from the bank in any of the species.     

The x-phi(les): unusual insights into the nature of inquiry

Experimental philosophy is often regarded as a category mistake. Even those who reject that view typically see it as irrelevant to standard philosophical projects. We argue that neither of these claims can be sustained and illustrate our view with a sketch of the rich interconnections with philosophy of science.     

自调式镦压挤胀复合液压机的研制

从力学原理、设计原理、整机结构、关键零部件的设计和工作程序,系统地介绍了自调式镦压挤胀复合液压机．由于压机设计了顶出缸对下活动横梁调节限位结构,回程拉杆对上镦压横梁的复位结构及镦压缸和气液储能器之间的连通协调结构,这不仅使该液压机结构紧凑,同时节省了上镦压横梁的回程液压缸、下活动横梁的镦压缸,并简化了上凸模与上镦压模分设的液压系统,而且解决了直齿圆柱齿轮在塑性成形过程中齿顶难以充满、齿根易出现微裂纹,以及成形压力过大和模具寿命过低的问题．