An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine‐to‐coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high‐frequency, low‐frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high‐frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low‐frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

交通荷载作用下低路堤动力特性试验研究

结合连盐高速低路堤,对路堤进行了动应力、振动响应等现场测试,分析了路基中附加动应力及振动位移的变化规律.并且通过应力控制的室内动三轴试验,采用一定的动应力频率、不同的循环应力比来模拟交通荷载,研究了在循环荷载作用下,连盐高速公路饱和软粘土的轴向累计应变、孔隙水压力和轴向周期应变软化的变化规律.实验结果表明:路堤中动应力和振动位移随行车速度和车重的增加而增加,随深度的增加而降低,有效影响深度达2.5 m;原状土的临界循环应力比远大于重塑土,承受循环应力能力高于重塑土.因此,要加强浅层路基强度,同时要减少对底部下卧层软粘土的扰动.其结果可为在软土地基上设计和施工低路堤高速公路提供有益的参考.     

基于结构层贡献率的沥青路面抗车辙措施

采用环道试验及德国汉堡车辙试验方法,研究在中面层使用改性沥青对路面结构和组合结构抗车辙性能的影响,包括对结构层贡献率和对沥青层剪切流动变形的影响;探讨在中面层添加纤维对路面结构抗车辙能力的影响.研究结果表明:中面层使用改性沥青,能提高路面结构的整体抗车辙性能;使剪切流动变形由95.2%下降至84.4%;中面层变形贡献率达到60%以上,应该重视提高中面层的抗车辙能力;对于中面层采用普通沥青的结构,在中面层添加纤维可明显减少整个结构车辙深度,但对于中面层已采用改性沥青的结构,添加纤维减少车辙的效果不明显.     

Germline-specific dgcr8 knockout in zebrafish using a BACK approach

Zebrafish is an important model to study developmental biology and human diseases. However, an effective approach to achieve spatial and temporal gene knockout in zebrafish has not been well established. In this study, we have developed a new approach, namely bacterial artificial chromosome-rescue-based knockout (BACK), to achieve conditional gene knockout in zebrafish using the Cre/loxP system. We have successfully deleted the DiGeorge syndrome critical region gene 8 (dgcr8) in zebrafish germ line and demonstrated that the maternal-zygotic dgcr8 (MZdgcr8) embryos exhibit MZdicer-like phenotypes with morphological defects which could be rescued by miR-430, indicating that canonical microRNAs play critical role in early development. Our findings establish that Cre/loxP-mediated tissue-specific gene knockout could be achieved using this BACK strategy and that canonical microRNAs play important roles in early embryonic development in zebrafish.     

Overactive bone morphogenetic protein signaling in heterotopic ossification and Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) are important extracellular cytokines that play critical roles in embryogenesis and tissue homeostasis. BMPs signal via transmembrane type I and type II serine/threonine kinase receptors and intracellular Smad effector proteins. BMP signaling is precisely regulated and perturbation of BMP signaling is connected to multiple diseases, including musculoskeletal diseases. In this review, we will summarize the recent progress in elucidation of BMP signal transduction, how overactive BMP signaling is involved in the pathogenesis of heterotopic ossification and Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and discuss possible therapeutic strategies for treatment of these diseases.     

杭州人工智能企业集群发展研究

基于人工智能技术、产品、服务对“人”“城市”“平台”的作用和影响,分析了杭州三类人工智能企业集群的发展情况和存在短板,提出对策建议。     

钢梁柱弱轴顶底角钢半刚性连接的抗弯特性

为了解顶底角钢半刚性连接的抗弯特性,利用简化的斜率-位移方程推导了半刚性连接初始刚度的计算公式,根据角钢的塑性特性计算了半刚性连接的极限弯矩,进行了两类柱弱轴顶底角钢半刚性连接的抗弯试验,并利用三参数幂函数模型模拟了所研究的半刚性连接的弯矩-转角曲线.结果表明,模拟结果与试验结果吻合很好,文中提出的新型连接形式具有很好的抗弯能力.     

栗斑腹鹀巢捕食及影响因素研究

2018—2019年,在内蒙古扎鲁特旗地区开展了栗斑腹鹀的巢捕食率及影响巢捕食因素的研究.结果表明:蛇和草原黄鼠是栗斑腹鹀繁殖期的主要巢捕食者.两年间共找到栗斑腹鹀繁殖巢94巢,其中44巢被捕食,巢捕食率为46.8％,占繁殖失败的65.7％.对栗斑腹鹀被捕食巢和繁殖成功巢的9个巢址因子进行二元逻辑斯蒂回归分析发现,裸地...