An Adaptive Multiscale Ensemble Learning Paradigm for Nonstationary and Nonlinear Energy Price Time Series Forecasting

For forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear energy prices time series, a novel adaptive multiscale ensemble learning paradigm incorporating ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and least square support vector machines (LSSVM) with kernel function prototype is developed. Firstly, the extrema symmetry expansion EEMD, which can effectively restrain the mode mixing and end effects, is used to decompose the energy price into simple modes. Secondly, by using the fine‐to‐coarse reconstruction algorithm, the high‐frequency, low‐frequency and trend components are identified. Furthermore, autoregressive integrated moving average is applicable to predicting the high‐frequency components. LSSVM is suitable for forecasting the low‐frequency and trend components. At the same time, a universal kernel function prototype is introduced for making up the drawbacks of single kernel function, which can adaptively select the optimal kernel function type and model parameters according to the specific data using the PSO algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of all the components are aggregated into the forecasting values of energy price time series. The empirical results show that, compared with the popular prediction methods, the proposed method can significantly improve the prediction accuracy of energy prices, with high accuracy both in the level and directional predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于时间-距离-多普勒像的编队目标架次检测

针对实际编队目标在距离上的分布特性和目标多普勒频率的变化规律,利用联合时频变换代替传统傅立叶变换,建立目标时间-距离-多普勒立体像,提出一种基于立体像的目标架次检测方法。该方法不仅能给出清晰的瞬时距离-多普勒像,而且能反映目标距离-多普勒像的时间演变特性,较好地解决了目标在距离上的分布和多普勒像的模糊。实测回波数据验证了该方法的有效性,成功地实现了4架编队飞机目标的架次检测。     

交通荷载作用下低路堤动力特性试验研究

结合连盐高速低路堤,对路堤进行了动应力、振动响应等现场测试,分析了路基中附加动应力及振动位移的变化规律.并且通过应力控制的室内动三轴试验,采用一定的动应力频率、不同的循环应力比来模拟交通荷载,研究了在循环荷载作用下,连盐高速公路饱和软粘土的轴向累计应变、孔隙水压力和轴向周期应变软化的变化规律.实验结果表明:路堤中动应力和振动位移随行车速度和车重的增加而增加,随深度的增加而降低,有效影响深度达2.5 m;原状土的临界循环应力比远大于重塑土,承受循环应力能力高于重塑土.因此,要加强浅层路基强度,同时要减少对底部下卧层软粘土的扰动.其结果可为在软土地基上设计和施工低路堤高速公路提供有益的参考.     

基于结构层贡献率的沥青路面抗车辙措施

采用环道试验及德国汉堡车辙试验方法,研究在中面层使用改性沥青对路面结构和组合结构抗车辙性能的影响,包括对结构层贡献率和对沥青层剪切流动变形的影响;探讨在中面层添加纤维对路面结构抗车辙能力的影响.研究结果表明:中面层使用改性沥青,能提高路面结构的整体抗车辙性能;使剪切流动变形由95.2%下降至84.4%;中面层变形贡献率达到60%以上,应该重视提高中面层的抗车辙能力;对于中面层采用普通沥青的结构,在中面层添加纤维可明显减少整个结构车辙深度,但对于中面层已采用改性沥青的结构,添加纤维减少车辙的效果不明显.     

Germline-specific dgcr8 knockout in zebrafish using a BACK approach

Zebrafish is an important model to study developmental biology and human diseases. However, an effective approach to achieve spatial and temporal gene knockout in zebrafish has not been well established. In this study, we have developed a new approach, namely bacterial artificial chromosome-rescue-based knockout (BACK), to achieve conditional gene knockout in zebrafish using the Cre/loxP system. We have successfully deleted the DiGeorge syndrome critical region gene 8 (dgcr8) in zebrafish germ line and demonstrated that the maternal-zygotic dgcr8 (MZdgcr8) embryos exhibit MZdicer-like phenotypes with morphological defects which could be rescued by miR-430, indicating that canonical microRNAs play critical role in early development. Our findings establish that Cre/loxP-mediated tissue-specific gene knockout could be achieved using this BACK strategy and that canonical microRNAs play important roles in early embryonic development in zebrafish.     

Overactive bone morphogenetic protein signaling in heterotopic ossification and Duchenne muscular dystrophy

Bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs) are important extracellular cytokines that play critical roles in embryogenesis and tissue homeostasis. BMPs signal via transmembrane type I and type II serine/threonine kinase receptors and intracellular Smad effector proteins. BMP signaling is precisely regulated and perturbation of BMP signaling is connected to multiple diseases, including musculoskeletal diseases. In this review, we will summarize the recent progress in elucidation of BMP signal transduction, how overactive BMP signaling is involved in the pathogenesis of heterotopic ossification and Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and discuss possible therapeutic strategies for treatment of these diseases.     

A genome-wide association study in Chinese men identifies three risk loci for non-obstructive azoospermia

Non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA) is one of the most severe forms of male infertility. Its pathophysiology is largely unknown, and few genetic influences have been defined. To identify common variants contributing to NOA in Han Chinese men, we performed a three-stage genome-wide association study of 2,927 individuals with NOA and 5,734 controls. The combined analyses identified significant (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)) associations between NOA risk and common variants near PRMT6 (rs12097821 at 1p13.3: odds ratio (OR) = 1.25, P = 5.7 × 10(-10)), PEX10 (rs2477686 at 1p36.32: OR = 1.39, P = 5.7 × 10(-12)) and SOX5 (rs10842262 at 12p12.1: OR = 1.23, P = 2.3 × 10(-9)). These findings implicate genetic variants at 1p13.3, 1p36.32 and 12p12.1 in the etiology of NOA in Han Chinese men.     

杭州人工智能企业集群发展研究

基于人工智能技术、产品、服务对“人”“城市”“平台”的作用和影响,分析了杭州三类人工智能企业集群的发展情况和存在短板,提出对策建议。