Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DETERMINATION OF KRAFT LIGNIN CONCENTRATIONS BY FTIR

A fast and accurate method based on FTIR is developed for determining the lignin content and its characteristic bands in alkali solutions. The work consisted of two main parts: 1) establishing a predictive model and 2) determination of the accuracy of the model. The model was derived by applying the partial least squares algorithm for multivariate analyses to a set of spectrum data obtained from selected IR absorption regions in the range of 1600 - 900 cm-1. The model was tested with spent liquors obtained from commercial pulp mills.The accuracy of the predictive model is extremely high suitable for commercial applications,particularly for monitoring the dynamic response of modern kraft pulping processes.     

广义不确定原理对一般静态黑洞熵的影响

把广义不确定原理引入黑洞熵的计算,采用薄膜brick-wall模型,对一般静态黑洞外部标量场的熵进行了计算,得到了熵计算公式.应用该公式结果表明,可以得到已知所有静态黑洞的Bekenstein-Hawking熵.作为比较和进一步研究,对视界面上的二维膜的熵进行计算,可以更方便和一般性地得到熵与视界面积成正比的结论,该讨论可直接表明黑洞熵就是其视界面上的量子态的熵.与原始brick-wall模型不同的是,这一结论是有限的,计算中无需引入截断,且小质量近似也可以避免.     

公文标题常见病例举隅

针对公文拟制过程中出现的不规范或错误的标题 ,从滥行省略、文种错用、语法不规范、表述不清、表达不简洁、适用不当、标点符号乱用、体号混乱八个方面 ,按《国家行政机关公处理办法》《国家行政机关公文格式》的规定加以分析 ,从多个角度提出了公文标题拟制的基本要素和规范要求     

数学试题库管理系统的设计--用VB与Word2000Automation技术

文章详细介绍了数学试题库管理系统的模型设计及VBA与word2000Automation技术在其中的应用情况．此试题库管理系统具有系统管理的开放性、学科扩展的通用性、抽题方式的灵活性及排版打印的实用性等特点．     

Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Refractive-diffractive visual system for micro-display of LCOS

One head-mounted display visual system for computer entertainment and three-dimensional display of virtual-reality was achieved, which consists of a hybrid refractive-diffractive eyepiece and a relay reflector. It can be used in micro-display of liquid crystal on silicon (LCOS) diagonal of 18 mm. The whole system has better performance, with 60° field of view, 10 mm exit pupil, 23 mm eye relief, and reduces weight and size.     

Quantal transmitter secretion from myocytes loaded with acetylcholine.

It is well known that transmitter secretion requires specialized secretory organelles, the synaptic vesicles, for the packaging, storage and exocytotic release of the transmitter. Here we report that when acetylcholine (ACh) is loaded into an isolated Xenopus myocyte, there is spontaneous quantal release of ACh from the myocyte which results in activation of its own surface ACh channels and the appearance of membrane currents resembling miniature endplate currents. This myocyte secretion probably reflects Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis of ACh-filled cytoplasmic compartments. Furthermore, step depolarization of the myocyte membrane triggers evoked ACh release from the myocyte with a weak excitation-secretion coupling. These findings suggest that quantal transmitter secretion does not require secretory pathways unique to neurons and that the essence of presynaptic differentiation may reside in the provision of transmitter supply and modification of the preexisting secretion pathway.     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.