Identification of asymmetric prediction intervals through causal forces

When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend are called contrary series. We hypothesized that contrary series would have asymmetric forecast errors, with larger errors in the direction of the expected trend. Using annual series that contained minimal information about causality, we examined 671 contrary forecasts. As expected, most (81%) of the errors were in the direction of the causal forces. Also as expected, the asymmetries were more likely for longer forecast horizons; for six‐year‐ahead forecasts, 89% of the forecasts were in the expected direction. The asymmetries were often substantial. Contrary series should be flagged and treated separately when prediction intervals are estimated, perhaps by shifting the interval in the direction of the causal forces. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correspondence on the selection of error measures for comparisons among forecasting methods

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based their conclusion on the fact that rankings based on GFESM remain unaltered if the series are linearly transformed. In this paper, we argue that this evaluation ignores other important criteria. Also, their conclusions were illustrated by a simulation study whose relationship to real data was not obvious. Thirdly, prior empirical studies show that the mean square error is an inappropriate measure to serve as a basis for comparison. This undermines the claims made for the GFESM.     

Training Load Monitoring Algorithms on Highly Sub-Metered Home Electricity Consumption Data

The growing interest in energy-efficient buildings is driving changes in investment, design, and occupant behavior. To better focus cost and resource conservation efforts, electricity consumption feedback can be used to provide motivation, guidance, and verification. Disaggregating by end-use helps both consumers and producers to identify targets for conservation. While hardware-based sub-metering is costly and labor-intensive, non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) is capable of gathering detailed energy-use data with minimal equipment cost and installation time. However, variations in measurements between metering devices complicate the process of compiling the necessary appliance profiles. Future work involves the devel-opment of NILM algorithms using sensor fusion and detailed appliance-level data gathered from a highly-sensed house currently being constructed near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.     

Localization of insulin-like growth factor genes to human chromosomes 11 and 12

The insulin-like growth factors IGF-I and IGF-II are required for growth and development. Both are single-chain proteins (of 70 and 67 amino acids respectively) derived from precursors by proteolytic processing. IGF-I may be particularly important in promoting normal stature and IGF-II may be a fetal growth hormone. The IGF proteins are probably synthesized by many normal tissues and by some tumours. The secretion of growth factors by tumours and tumour-derived cell lines suggests that they may act as autocrine regulators of cell proliferation. Because of the possible role of these proteins in growth disorders and cancer, and their sequence homology with insulin, we have determined their chromosomal localization. Using somatic cell hybrids and cloned cDNA probes for these proteins, we have assigned the genes for IGF-I and IGF-II to human chromosomes 12 and 11, respectively. We present evidence that the IGF-II gene is located on the short arm of chromosome 11 with a ras proto-oncogene and the insulin structural gene, and also suggest the existence of a fragment length polymorphism using the IGF-I probe.     

Tissue-specific activation of a cloned alpha-fetoprotein gene during differentiation of a transfected embryonal carcinoma cell line

To identify cis-acting DNA elements involved in the activation of the alpha-fetoprotein gene during differentiation, modified copies of the gene were introduced into murine F9 embryonal carcinoma cells. The differentiation of the transformants to either parietal or visceral endoderm was accompanied by induction of the exogenous template in a manner qualitatively, but not quantitatively, identical to that of the endogenous alpha-fetoprotein gene.     

A novel fluorination reaction: The interaction of perchloryl fluoride with active methylene compounds

Zusammenfassung Die Reaktion von Perchloryl Fluorid (PF) mit Anionen wurde untersucht. Eine leichte Difluorierung fand statt mit Carbanionen vom Typus CH (C=X)₂. Mechanismen für die verschiedenen Heterolysen von PF werden vorgeschlagen.