在UBBE框架下考虑不肯定的上界的估计方法

对目前的ＵＢＢＥ模型进行了适当的推广，使在解决估计问题时可以考虑那些可能是误差上界的数值，并在此基础上提出了一种方法，能够通过对估计精度和可靠性进行合理的权衡确定所需估计值，实际案例研究结果表明所提方法能够较好地解决估计精度和可靠性之间的矛盾。     

Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Huntington's disease candidate region exhibits many different haplotypes.

Analysis of 78 Huntington's disease (HD) chromosomes with multi-allele markers revealed 26 different haplotypes, suggesting a variety of independent HD mutations. The most frequent haplotype, accounting for about one third of disease chromosomes, suggests that the disease gene is between D4S182 and D4S180. However, the paucity of an expected class of chromosomes that can be related to this major haplotype by assuming single crossovers may reflect the operation of other mechanisms in creating haplotype diversity. Some of these mechanisms sustain alternative scenarios that do not require a multiple mutational origin for HD and/or its positioning between D4S182 and D4S180.     

概化理论在语言测试新进展中的应用

概化理论是一种发展较晚但功能全面的现代测试理论，能有效地设计、分析和评估测试项目。直到上个世纪八九十年代，Robert Brennan等人开发了GENOVA等一系列应用软件后，概化理论才在心理和教育测量领域的研究中逐渐受到重视，此后，运用概化理论研究实际问题的项目也逐渐多了起来。概化理论与项目反应理论属于不同的理论范畴，它们的基本假设也有很大的差别。