新疆旅游业对经济增长影响的实证分析

近年来,旅游业已经成为很多地区拉动经济增长的重要产业之一。新疆具有浓郁的民族风情以及各种得天独厚的旅游资源,这为旅游业蓬勃发展提供了坚实基础。首先介绍了新疆旅游业的基本发展状况及趋势;其次,针对新疆2005-2017年的统计数据,运用Stata14.0软件对该数据进行多元回归,分析了旅游业对地区经济增长的贡献,并对新疆经济增长与旅游业之间的影响机制进行研究;最后根据实证分析得出的结论,提出了若干对策建议。     

改进智能算法的认知无线Mesh网络优化频谱分配算法

随着网络资源日益紧张,认知无线Mesh网络中的频谱优化分配问题的研究主要集中在总带宽的最大化和占用频谱数的最小化。文中考虑到杂草算法的多样性以及容易实现和编码快捷等特点,提出一种基于改进入侵杂草优化算法(IWO)的频谱优化分配方法(IIOW)。通过对扩散条件中调和指数的优化,使得扩散更加均匀准确,大大加快收敛速度,同时优化了适应度函数的曲线。仿真结果表明:基于改进IWO的优化算法能在最大化总带宽与最小化信道占用数的情况下,获得较为理想的适应度函数曲线,同时加快收敛速度。     

Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

基于滑移/非滑移异质界面的动压润滑性能优化

合理布置的滑移/非滑移异质界面可以提高流体动压润滑性能,但目前滑移区和非滑移区的组合方式大多采用单一的直线拼接法,没有针对流体润滑摩擦副的各类工况设计出相应的优化方案,为此本文建立了一组离散式二次方程来描述滑移区和非滑移区拼接轨迹,并引入计算域单元的宽长比作为优化变量,分别以液膜刚度和摩擦因数作为优化目标,通过MATLAB数值仿真求解不同宽长比条件下滑移区和非滑移区的最优拼接轨迹。结果表明,与直线拼接法相比,选取二次方程所描述的抛物线作为滑移区和非滑移区拼接轨迹的方法使流体润滑摩擦副在摩擦因数和液膜刚度等性能指标上都有所改善,而且根据不同的优化目标参数可以方便地绘制出最优拼接方案,验证了本文方法在改善动压润滑性能上的可行性和普适性。     

Diversity and dispersal history of the talitrids (Crustacea: Amphipoda: Talitridae) of Bermuda

Five taxa of talitrid amphipods were found in the archipelago of Bermuda, of which three were recorded there for the first time. Four of these are supralittoral wrack generalists: Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402, (a unique Molecular Operational Taxonomic Unit according to the Barcode Index Number system), a related species recognized by molecular methods, Platorchestia platensis BOLD:AAA2949, Mexorchestia carpenteri carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491 and Tethorchestia antillensis; and one a terrestrial leaf-litter generalist: Talitroides alluaudi. A key is provided to discriminate between the formally described talitrids of Bermuda. Dispersal mechanisms from the American continent to Bermuda were considered for all taxa based on species distributions along the North American Atlantic coast and also investigated by molecular methods, using genetic population differentiation and haplotype network analysis based on the barcode region of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene. For P. monodi BOLD:AAB3402 the genetic results suggest that some dispersal events occurred before human colonization of Bermuda but are equivocal about the source population and therefore the direction of dispersal. Some very recent synanthropic dispersal is possible with this species. For the other two species studied genetically, P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 and M. c. carpenteri BOLD:AAC1491, the small population samples analysed support dispersal to Bermuda from the American mainland, before human occupation of Bermuda, although the available sample size was limited for these species. The available limited direct, non-genetic evidence supports synanthropic transport for Talitroides alluaudi. Platorchestia monodi BOLD:AAB3402 is found in the same wrack habitat as P. platensis BOLD:AAA2949 on Bermuda, apparently without interbreeding. No evidence was found that driftwood specialist talitrids had become established in Bermuda.     

Baronia brevicornis caterpillars build shelters to avoid predation

In at least 18 Lepidoptera families, caterpillars build shelters that mainly serve to regulate microclimate (humidity, temperature) and/or to avoid predation. We aimed to explore the function of the tubular structures built with the leaves of the host plant, Acacia cochliacantha Humboldt and Bonpland ex Willdenow (Fabaceae), by a lepidopteran endemic to Mexico, Baronia brevicornis Salvin. We experimentally evaluated whether tubular structure building behaviour is induced by high temperature or predator odour, and if shelters reduce or enhance predation of B. brevicornis caterpillars. We used Calosoma angulatum as predator. Our analyses showed that caterpillars did not make the tubular structures in response to high temperature. We also found no difference in predators’ visual recognition of sheltered versus unsheltered caterpillars. Caterpillars did not build shelters but they moved more often when exposed to predator odour. Unsheltered caterpillars were more frequently consumed when predators were allowed to interact with sheltered and unsheltered caterpillars. Hence, the tubular structures built by B. brevicornis are most likely a strategy for reducing predation, for example by C. angulatum.