Fuzzy Views on Black-Litterman Portfolio Selection Model

In this paper, views of investor are described in fuzzy sets, and two fuzzy Black-Litterman models are constructed with fuzzy views and fuzzy random views respectively. In the models, expected returns and uncertainty matrix of views are redefined and the views are formulated by fuzzy approaches suitably. Then the models are tested with data from Chinese financial markets. Empirical results show that the fuzzy random views model performs the best, and both the fuzzy models are better than the traditional ones, demonstrating that the fuzzy approaches can contain more information in the views and measure the uncertainty more correctly.     

Aristotle Said “Happiness is a State of Activity” — Predicting Mood Through Body Sensing with Smartwatches

We measure and predict states of Activation and Happiness using a body sensing application connected to smartwatches. Through the sensors of commercially available smartwatches we collect individual mood states and correlate them with body sensing data such as acceleration, heart rate, light level data, and location, through the GPS sensor built into the smartphone connected to the smartwatch. We polled users on the smartwatch for seven weeks four times per day asking for their mood state. We found that both Happiness and Activation are negatively correlated with heart beats and with the levels of light. People tend to be happier when they are moving more intensely and are feeling less activated during weekends. We also found that people with a lower Conscientiousness and Neuroticism and higher Agreeableness tend to be happy more frequently. In addition, more Activation can be predicted by lower Openness to experience and higher Agreeableness and Conscientiousness. Lastly, we find that tracking people’s geographical coordinates might play an important role in predicting Happiness and Activation. The methodology we propose is a first step towards building an automated mood tracking system, to be used for better teamwork and in combination with social network analysis studies.     

Early SIV and HIV infection promotes the LILRB2/MHC-I inhibitory axis in cDCs

Classical dendritic cells (cDCs) play a pivotal role in the early events that tip the immune response toward persistence or viral control. In vitro studies indicate that HIV infection induces the dysregulation of cDCs through binding of the LILRB2 inhibitory receptor to its MHC-I ligands and the strength of this interaction was proposed to drive disease progression. However, the dynamics of the LILRB2/MHC-I inhibitory axis in cDCs during early immune responses against HIV are yet unknown. Here, we show that early HIV-1 infection induces a strong and simultaneous increase of LILRB2 and MHC-I expression on the surface of blood cDCs. We further characterized the early dynamics of LILRB2 and MHC-I expression by showing that SIVmac251 infection of macaques promotes coordinated up-regulation of LILRB2 and MHC-I on cDCs and monocytes/macrophages, from blood and lymph nodes. Orientation towards the LILRB2/MHC-I inhibitory axis starts from the first days of infection and is transiently induced in the entire cDC population in acute phase. Analysis of the factors involved indicates that HIV-1 replication, TLR7/8 triggering, and treatment by IL-10 or type I IFNs increase LILRB2 expression. Finally, enhancement of the LILRB2/MHC-I inhibitory axis is specific to HIV-1 and SIVmac251 infections, as expression of LILRB2 on cDCs decreased in naturally controlled chikungunya virus infection of macaques. Altogether, our data reveal a unique up-regulation of LILRB2 and its MHC-I ligands on cDCs in the early phase of SIV/HIV infection, which may account for immune dysregulation at a critical stage of the anti-viral response.     

基于联合违约概率的资产组合投资优化方法

投资组合的资产联合违约概率(joint,probability of default,JPoD)是一种有效的系统风险测度工具.基于JPoD分析,提出了一种新的资产组合选择优化方法,即通过计算资产池中每两种资产的JPoD值得到JPoD矩阵,利用遍历算法逐次筛选,得出具有最小系统风险的多资产组合.实证分析首先利用2014 2015年的上证综指和深证成指数据验证了JPoD方法的有效性;其次,分别利用中国股票市场数据和美国股票市场数据将所提出的资产组合选择方法与马科维茨均值-方差组合理论、随机组合方法进行比较,结果表明无论是在中国股票市场还是美国股票市场,JPoD方法都明显优于其他两种方法.     

喀斯特地区水土漏失监测方法评述

水土漏失具有隐蔽性、特殊性和复杂性,有效监测水土漏失是水土漏失研究的难点问题。通过对洞穴滴水示踪、~(137)Cs同位素示踪、模拟试验、数学模型等水土漏失监测方法的分析,得出以下结论:1)洞穴滴水示踪技术监测获得的水土漏失量普遍偏大;2)~(137)Cs示踪法在均质土壤条件下可以定量示踪土壤侵蚀,但还不能定量示踪非均质的喀斯特石漠化地区的水土漏失;3)水土漏失模拟试验可以揭示一定的水土漏失机理和规律,试验结论与自然界土壤地下漏失情况有一定偏差,实验结果还难以推广至流域尺度;4)当前已构建的地下漏失数学模型对于地下水土漏失的预测还不够准确,其原因是数学模型中的某个影响因子的获取难度不亚于直接监测水土漏失的困难。鉴于当前水土漏失监测方法的不足,需要从水文地质勘测的方法中寻找合理的水土漏失监测法,建立长期监测的机制,为有效防治和阻控地下水土漏失提供科学依据。     

汽车太阳膜综合隔热性能测试系统研究

设计了一种新的汽车太阳膜综合隔热性能测试系统,通过试验,客观地比较了汽车太阳膜的真实综合隔热性能,为鉴定相近理论参数汽车太阳膜的隔热性能提供了技术支持。     

工程弹性系统与系统弹性理论研究综述

工程弹性系统(engineered resilient system,ERS)是美国国防部(department of defense,DOD)应对越来越不确定的任务和环境而提出的未来国防系统发展战略,对复杂系统的工程实践与系统弹性理论都带来新的挑战。首先,对ERS提出的背景和相关概念进行介绍,重点对美国国防领域对ERS的一些观点进行分析,包括ERS的关键属性、弹性工程与现役系统关系、ERS设计中考虑的因素和ERS与系统工程的关系等,并对美国DOD优先立项的ERS项目研究进展进行了的研究。其次,对弹性相关的学术研究进行了述评,包括不同领域中弹性的概念、系统弹性不同的评价方法以及系统弹性设计方法,以便于对ERS的发展有一个较为全面的了解和借鉴。最后,在ERS发展研究基础上,从理论和应用角度对ERS和系统弹性理论面临的挑战进行了讨论。     

EVOKE: A Value-Driven Concept Selection Method for Early System Design

The development of new technologically advanced products requires the contribution from a range of skills and disciplines, which are often difficult to find within a single company or organization. Requirements establishment practices in Systems Engineering (SE), while ensuring coordination of activities and tasks across the supply network, fall short when it comes to facilitate knowledge sharing and negotiation during early system design. Empirical observations show that when system-level requirements are not available or not mature enough, engineers dealing with the development of long lead-time sub-systems tend to target local optima, rather than opening up the design space. This phenomenon causes design teams to generate solutions that do not embody the best possible configuration for the overall system. The aim of this paper is to show how methodologies for value-driven design may address this issue, facilitating early stage design iterations and the resolution of early stage design trade-offs. The paper describes how such methodologies may help gathering and dispatching relevant knowledge about the ‘design intent’ of a system to the cross-functional engineering teams, so to facilitate a more concurrent process for requirement elicitation in SE. The paper also describes EVOKE (Early Value Oriented design exploration with KnowledgE maturity), a concept selection method that allows benchmarking design options at sub-system level on the base of value-related information communicated by the system integrators. The use of EVOKE is exemplified in an industrial case study related to the design of an aero-engine component. EVOKE’s ability to raise awareness on the value contribution of early stage design concepts in the SE process has been further verified with industrial practitioners in ad-hoc design episodes.