Forecasting Stock Returns: Do Commodity Prices Help?

This paper examines the relationship between stock prices and commodity prices and whether this can be used to forecast stock returns. As both prices are linked to expected future economic performance they should exhibit a long‐run relationship. Moreover, changes in sentiment towards commodity investing may affect the nature of the response to disequilibrium. Results support cointegration between stock and commodity prices, while Bai–Perron tests identify breaks in the forecast regression. Forecasts are computed using a standard fixed (static) in‐sample/out‐of‐sample approach and by both recursive and rolling regressions, which incorporate the effects of changing forecast parameter values. A range of model specifications and forecast metrics are used. The historical mean model outperforms the forecast models in both the static and recursive approaches. However, in the rolling forecasts, those models that incorporate information from the long‐run stock price/commodity price relationship outperform both the historical mean and other forecast models. Of note, the historical mean still performs relatively well compared to standard forecast models that include the dividend yield and short‐term interest rates but not the stock/commodity price ratio. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Explosive volcanism on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge, Arctic Ocean

Roughly 60% of the Earth's outer surface is composed of oceanic crust formed by volcanic processes at mid-ocean ridges. Although only a small fraction of this vast volcanic terrain has been visually surveyed or sampled, the available evidence suggests that explosive eruptions are rare on mid-ocean ridges, particularly at depths below the critical point for seawater (3,000 m). A pyroclastic deposit has never been observed on the sea floor below 3,000 m, presumably because the volatile content of mid-ocean-ridge basalts is generally too low to produce the gas fractions required for fragmenting a magma at such high hydrostatic pressure. We employed new deep submergence technologies during an International Polar Year expedition to the Gakkel ridge in the Arctic Basin at 85 degrees E, to acquire photographic and video images of 'zero-age' volcanic terrain on this remote, ice-covered ridge. Here we present images revealing that the axial valley at 4,000 m water depth is blanketed with unconsolidated pyroclastic deposits, including bubble wall fragments (limu o Pele), covering a large (>10 km(2)) area. At least 13.5 wt% CO(2) is necessary to fragment magma at these depths, which is about tenfold the highest values previously measured in a mid-ocean-ridge basalt. These observations raise important questions about the accumulation and discharge of magmatic volatiles at ultraslow spreading rates on the Gakkel ridge and demonstrate that large-scale pyroclastic activity is possible along even the deepest portions of the global mid-ocean ridge volcanic system.     

Inversin, the gene product mutated in nephronophthisis type II, functions as a molecular switch between Wnt signaling pathways

Cystic renal diseases are caused by mutations of proteins that share a unique subcellular localization: the primary cilium of tubular epithelial cells. Mutations of the ciliary protein inversin cause nephronophthisis type II, an autosomal recessive cystic kidney disease characterized by extensive renal cysts, situs inversus and renal failure. Here we report that inversin acts as a molecular switch between different Wnt signaling cascades. Inversin inhibits the canonical Wnt pathway by targeting cytoplasmic dishevelled (Dsh or Dvl1) for degradation; concomitantly, it is required for convergent extension movements in gastrulating Xenopus laevis embryos and elongation of animal cap explants, both regulated by noncanonical Wnt signaling. In zebrafish, the structurally related switch molecule diversin ameliorates renal cysts caused by the depletion of inversin, implying that an inhibition of canonical Wnt signaling is required for normal renal development. Fluid flow increases inversin levels in ciliated tubular epithelial cells and seems to regulate this crucial switch between Wnt signaling pathways during renal development.     

A structural-maintenance-of-chromosomes hinge domain-containing protein is required for RNA-directed DNA methylation

RNA-directed DNA methylation (RdDM) is a process in which dicer-generated small RNAs guide de novo cytosine methylation at the homologous DNA region. To identify components of the RdDM machinery important for Arabidopsis thaliana development, we targeted an enhancer active in meristems for methylation, which resulted in silencing of a downstream GFP reporter gene. This silencing system also features secondary siRNAs, which trigger methylation that spreads beyond the targeted enhancer region. A screen for mutants defective in meristem silencing and enhancer methylation retrieved six dms complementation groups, which included the known factors DRD1 (ref. 3; a SNF2-like chromatin-remodeling protein) and Pol IVb subunits. Additionally, we identified a previously unknown gene DMS3 (At3g49250), encoding a protein similar to the hinge-domain region of structural maintenance of chromosomes (SMC) proteins. This finding implicates a putative chromosome architectural protein that can potentially link nucleic acids in facilitating an RNAi-mediated epigenetic modification involving secondary siRNAs and spreading of DNA methylation.     

Inhibition of cortisol metabolism in vitro by 2-methylnaphthoquinone (menadione): A possible interpretation of the potentiation of cortisol activity in vivo

Résumé Le degré de réduction du noyeau A du cortisole par les microsomes du foie du rat et par le NADPH est inhibé du 50% par le méthyle-2-naphtoquinone (ménadione). L'inhibition est partiellement allégée par l'addition de NADPH ce qui indique que la ménadione gêne la disponibilité du NADPH. En effet, il s'est trouvé que la ménadione active la diminution de NADPH par les microsomes du foie. Il est possible que l'augmentation précédemment signalée de l'activité pharmacologique du cortisole par la ménadione est apparentée à l'inhibition du métabolisme du cortisole.     

Blushing effect of some carbohydrates on the green algaDictyococcus cinnabarinus

Riassunto È studiato l'effetto di arrossamento provocato dall'aggiunta di alcuni zuccheri a colture sommerse dell'alga cloroficeaD. cinnabarinus. Questo effetto è dovuto alla formazione di cheto-carotenoidi, alla diminuzione delle clorofille ed alla degradazione dei cloroplasti. Le osservazioni al microscopio elettronico mettono in evidenza le variazioni della struttura dei cloroplasti.     

Cellular copper distribution: a mechanistic systems biology approach

Copper is an essential but potentially harmful trace element required in many enzymatic processes involving redox chemistry. Cellular copper homeostasis in mammals is predominantly maintained by regulating copper transport through the copper import CTR proteins and the copper exporters ATP7A and ATP7B. Once copper is imported into the cell, several pathways involving a number of copper proteins are responsible for trafficking it specifically where it is required for cellular life, thus avoiding the release of harmful free copper ions. In this study we review recent progress made in understanding the molecular mechanisms of copper transport in cells by analyzing structural features of copper proteins, their mode of interaction, and their thermodynamic and kinetic parameters, thus contributing to systems biology of copper within the cell.