An arid-adapted middle Pleistocene vertebrate fauna from south-central Australia

How well the ecology, zoogeography and evolution of modern biotas is understood depends substantially on knowledge of the Pleistocene. Australia has one of the most distinctive, but least understood, Pleistocene faunas. Records from the western half of the continent are especially rare. Here we report on a diverse and exceptionally well preserved middle Pleistocene vertebrate assemblage from caves beneath the arid, treeless Nullarbor plain of south-central Australia. Many taxa are represented by whole skeletons, which together serve as a template for identifying fragmentary, hitherto indeterminate, remains collected previously from Pleistocene sites across southern Australia. A remarkable eight of the 23 Nullarbor kangaroos are new, including two tree-kangaroos. The diverse herbivore assemblage implies substantially greater floristic diversity than that of the modern shrub steppe, but all other faunal and stable-isotope data indicate that the climate was very similar to today. Because the 21 Nullarbor species that did not survive the Pleistocene were well adapted to dry conditions, climate change (specifically, increased aridity) is unlikely to have been significant in their extinction.     

Modeling distributions of rare plants in the Great Basin, western North America

In this 2-phase study, we developed field-validated site and landscape-level predictive models for identifying potential rare and endemic plant habitat in the Great Basin of western North America. Four species were chosen to include a range of environmental variability and plant communities. Herbarium records of known occurrences were used to identify initial sample sites. The geographic coordinates, environmental attributes, and vegetation data collected at each site were used to develop 2 predictive models for each species: a field key and a probability-of-occurrence or predictor map. The field key was developed using only field data collected at the sites on environmental attributes and associated species. Predictive maps were developed with a geographic information system (GIS) containing slope, elevation, aspect, soils, and geologic data. Classification-tree (CT) software was used to generate dichotomous field keys and maps of occurrence probabilities. Predictions from both models were then field-validated during the 2nd phase of the study, and final models were developed through an iterative process, in which data collected during the field validation were incorporated into subsequent predictive models. Cross-validated models were >96% accurate and generally predicted presence with >60% accuracy. These models identified potential habitat by combining elevation, slope, aspect, rock type, and geologic process into habitat models for each species. ACRONYMS.—CEC—cation exchange capacity, CT—classification tree, DEM—digital elevation model, GAM—generalized additive model, GIS—geographic information system, GLM—generalized linear model, GPS—geographic positioning system, ROC—receiver operating curves, STATSGO—State Soil Geographic Database, USGS—United States Geological Survey, UTM—Universal Transverse Mercator. Nomenclature and distributions: Welsh et al. 2003, Shultz et al. 2005.