Predicting the signs of forecast errors

The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Characterization of Majority Rule for Hierarchies

The majority rule has been a popular method for producing a consensus classification from several different classifications, when the classifications are all on the same set of objects and are structured as hierarchies. In this note, a new axiomatic characterization is proved for this consensus method on hierarchies.     

De novo mutations revealed by whole-exome sequencing are strongly associated with autism

Multiple studies have confirmed the contribution of rare de novo copy number variations to the risk for autism spectrum disorders. But whereas de novo single nucleotide variants have been identified in affected individuals, their contribution to risk has yet to be clarified. Specifically, the frequency and distribution of these mutations have not been well characterized in matched unaffected controls, and such data are vital to the interpretation of de novo coding mutations observed in probands. Here we show, using whole-exome sequencing of 928 individuals, including 200 phenotypically discordant sibling pairs, that highly disruptive (nonsense and splice-site) de novo mutations in brain-expressed genes are associated with autism spectrum disorders and carry large effects. On the basis of mutation rates in unaffected individuals, we demonstrate that multiple independent de novo single nucleotide variants in the same gene among unrelated probands reliably identifies risk alleles, providing a clear path forward for gene discovery. Among a total of 279 identified de novo coding mutations, there is a single instance in probands, and none in siblings, in which two independent nonsense variants disrupt the same gene, SCN2A (sodium channel, voltage-gated, type II, α subunit), a result that is highly unlikely by chance.     

Possible tropical lakes on Titan from observations of dark terrain

Titan has clouds, rain and lakes--like Earth--but composed of methane rather than water. Unlike Earth, most of the condensable methane (the equivalent of 5?m depth globally averaged) lies in the atmosphere. Liquid detected on the surface (about 2?m deep) has been found by radar images only poleward of 50° latitude, while dune fields pervade the tropics. General circulation models explain this dichotomy, predicting that methane efficiently migrates to the poles from these lower latitudes. Here we report an analysis of near-infrared spectral images of the region between 20°?N and 20°?S latitude. The data reveal that the lowest fluxes in seven wavelength bands that probe Titan's surface occur in an oval region of about 60?×?40?km(2), which has been observed repeatedly since 2004. Radiative transfer analyses demonstrate that the resulting spectrum is consistent with a black surface, indicative of liquid methane on the surface. Enduring low-latitude lakes are best explained as supplied by subterranean sources (within the last 10,000 years), which may be responsible for Titan's methane, the continual photochemical depletion of which furnishes Titan's organic chemistry.     

Inland thinning of West Antarctic Ice Sheet steered along subglacial rifts

Current ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) accounts for about ten per cent of observed global sea-level rise. Losses are dominated by dynamic thinning, in which forcings by oceanic or atmospheric perturbations to the ice margin lead to an accelerated thinning of ice along the coastline. Although central to improving projections of future ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise, the incorporation of dynamic thinning into models has been restricted by lack of knowledge of basal topography and subglacial geology so that the rate and ultimate extent of potential WAIS retreat remains difficult to quantify. Here we report the discovery of a subglacial basin under Ferrigno Ice Stream up to 1.5?kilometres deep that connects the ice-sheet interior to the Bellingshausen Sea margin, and whose existence profoundly affects ice loss. We use a suite of ice-penetrating radar, magnetic and gravity measurements to propose a rift origin for the basin in association with the wider development of the West Antarctic rift system. The Ferrigno rift, overdeepened by glacial erosion, is a conduit which fed a major palaeo-ice stream on the adjacent continental shelf during glacial maxima. The palaeo-ice stream, in turn, eroded the 'Belgica' trough, which today routes warm open-ocean water back to the ice front to reinforce dynamic thinning. We show that dynamic thinning from both the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Sea region is being steered back to the ice-sheet interior along rift basins. We conclude that rift basins that cut across the WAIS margin can rapidly transmit coastally perturbed change inland, thereby promoting ice-sheet instability.     

Weight measurement using image-based pose analysis

Image-based gait analysis as a means of biometric identification has attracted much research attention. Most of the existing methods focus on human identification, posture analysis and movement tracking. There have been few investigations on measuring the carried load based on the carrier＇s gait characteristics by automatic image processing. Nevertheless, this measurement is very useful in a number of applications, such as the study of the carried load on the postural development of children and adolescence. In this paper, we investigate how to automatically estimate the carried weight from a sequence of images. We present a method to extract human gait silhouette based on an observation that humans tend to minimize the energy during motion. We compute several angles of body leaning and determine the relationship of the carried weight, the leaning angles and the centroid location according to a human kinetic study. Our weight determination method has been verified successfully by experiments.     

Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?

Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in‐sample fit and moving‐window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit‐root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out‐of‐sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in‐sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity

Contributing roughly half of the biosphere's net primary production (NPP), photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks. Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics, upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle. Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr(-1)), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr(-1). These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs.     

Synaptic scaling mediated by glial TNF-alpha

Two general forms of synaptic plasticity that operate on different timescales are thought to contribute to the activity-dependent refinement of neural circuitry during development: (1) long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD), which involve rapid adjustments in the strengths of individual synapses in response to specific patterns of correlated synaptic activity, and (2) homeostatic synaptic scaling, which entails uniform adjustments in the strength of all synapses on a cell in response to prolonged changes in the cell's electrical activity. Without homeostatic synaptic scaling, neural networks can become unstable and perform suboptimally. Although much is known about the mechanisms underlying LTP and LTD, little is known about the mechanisms responsible for synaptic scaling except that such scaling is due, at least in part, to alterations in receptor content at synapses. Here we show that synaptic scaling in response to prolonged blockade of activity is mediated by the pro-inflammatory cytokine tumour-necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha). Using mixtures of wild-type and TNF-alpha-deficient neurons and glia, we also show that glia are the source of the TNF-alpha that is required for this form of synaptic scaling. We suggest that by modulating TNF-alpha levels, glia actively participate in the homeostatic activity-dependent regulation of synaptic connectivity.