A test of the joint efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts using multivariate random forests

We contribute to recent research on the joint evaluation of the properties of macroeconomic forecasts in a multivariate setting. The specific property of forecasts that we are interested in is their joint efficiency. We study the joint efficiency of forecasts by means of multivariate random forests, which we use to model the links between forecast errors and predictor variables in a forecaster's information set. We then use permutation tests to study whether the Mahalanobis distance between the predicted forecast errors for the growth and inflation forecasts of four leading German economic research institutes and actual forecast errors is significantly smaller than under the null hypothesis of forecast efficiency. We reject joint efficiency in several cases, but also document heterogeneity across research institutes with regard to the joint efficiency of their forecasts.     

Genome-wide survey of recurrent HBV integration in hepatocellular carcinoma

To survey hepatitis B virus (HBV) integration in liver cancer genomes, we conducted massively parallel sequencing of 81 HBV-positive and 7 HBV-negative hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) and adjacent normal tissues. We found that HBV integration is observed more frequently in the tumors (86.4%) than in adjacent liver tissues (30.7%). Copy-number variations (CNVs) were significantly increased at HBV breakpoint locations where chromosomal instability was likely induced. Approximately 40% of HBV breakpoints within the HBV genome were located within a 1,800-bp region where the viral enhancer, X gene and core gene are located. We also identified recurrent HBV integration events (in ≥ 4 HCCs) that were validated by RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and Sanger sequencing at the known and putative cancer-related TERT, MLL4 and CCNE1 genes, which showed upregulated gene expression in tumor versus normal tissue. We also report evidence that suggests that the number of HBV integrations is associated with patient survival.     

Genomic and metabolic prediction of complex heterotic traits in hybrid maize

Maize is both an exciting model organism in plant genetics and also the most important crop worldwide for food, animal feed and bioenergy production. Recent genome-wide association and metabolic profiling studies aimed to resolve quantitative traits to their causal genetic loci and key metabolic regulators. Here we present a complementary approach that exploits large-scale genomic and metabolic information to predict complex, highly polygenic traits in hybrid testcrosses. We crossed 285 diverse Dent inbred lines from worldwide sources with two testers and predicted their combining abilities for seven biomass- and bioenergy-related traits using 56,110 SNPs and 130 metabolites. Whole-genome and metabolic prediction models were built by fitting effects for all SNPs or metabolites. Prediction accuracies ranged from 0.72 to 0.81 for SNPs and from 0.60 to 0.80 for metabolites, allowing a reliable screening of large collections of diverse inbred lines for their potential to create superior hybrids.     

Forecasting Inflation Rates Using Daily Data: A Nonparametric MIDAS Approach

In this paper a nonparametric approach for estimating mixed‐frequency forecast equations is proposed. In contrast to the popular MIDAS approach that employs an (exponential) Almon or Beta lag distribution, we adopt a penalized least‐squares estimator that imposes some degree of smoothness to the lag distribution. This estimator is related to nonparametric estimation procedures based on cubic splines and resembles the popular Hodrick–Prescott filtering technique for estimating a smooth trend function. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the nonparametric estimator may provide more reliable and flexible approximations to the actual lag distribution than the conventional parametric MIDAS approach based on exponential lag polynomials. Parametric and nonparametric methods are applied to assess the predictive power of various daily indicators for forecasting monthly inflation rates. It turns out that the commodity price index is a useful predictor for inflations rates 20–30 days ahead with a hump‐shaped lag distribution. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

NLRP10 is a NOD-like receptor essential to initiate adaptive immunity by dendritic cells

NLRs (nucleotide-binding domain leucine-rich-repeat-containing receptors; NOD-like receptors) are a class of pattern recognition receptor (PRR) that respond to host perturbation from either infectious agents or cellular stress. The function of most NLR family members has not been characterized and their role in instructing adaptive immune responses remains unclear. NLRP10 (also known as PYNOD, NALP10, PAN5 and NOD8) is the only NLR lacking the putative ligand-binding leucine-rich-repeat domain, and has been postulated to be a negative regulator of other NLR members, including NLRP3 (refs 4-6). We did not find evidence that NLRP10 functions through an inflammasome to regulate caspase-1 activity nor that it regulates other inflammasomes. Instead, Nlrp10(-/-) mice had a profound defect in helper T-cell-driven immune responses to a diverse array of adjuvants, including lipopolysaccharide, aluminium hydroxide and complete Freund's adjuvant. Adaptive immunity was impaired in the absence of NLRP10 because of a dendritic cell (DC) intrinsic defect in emigration from inflamed tissues, whereas upregulation of DC costimulatory molecules and chemotaxis to CCR7-dependent and -independent ligands remained intact. The loss of antigen transport to the draining lymph nodes by a subset of migratory DCs resulted in an almost absolute loss in naive CD4(+) T-cell priming, highlighting the critical link between diverse innate immune stimulation, NLRP10 activity and the immune function of mature DCs.     

Genetic variegation of clonal architecture and propagating cells in leukaemia

Little is known of the genetic architecture of cancer at the subclonal and single-cell level or in the cells responsible for cancer clone maintenance and propagation. Here we have examined this issue in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in which the ETV6-RUNX1 gene fusion is an early or initiating genetic lesion followed by a modest number of recurrent or 'driver' copy number alterations. By multiplexing fluorescence in situ hybridization probes for these mutations, up to eight genetic abnormalities can be detected in single cells, a genetic signature of subclones identified and a composite picture of subclonal architecture and putative ancestral trees assembled. Subclones in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia have variegated genetics and complex, nonlinear or branching evolutionary histories. Copy number alterations are independently and reiteratively acquired in subclones of individual patients, and in no preferential order. Clonal architecture is dynamic and is subject to change in the lead-up to a diagnosis and in relapse. Leukaemia propagating cells, assayed by serial transplantation in NOD/SCID IL2Rγ(null) mice, are also genetically variegated, mirroring subclonal patterns, and vary in competitive regenerative capacity in vivo. These data have implications for cancer genomics and for the targeted therapy of cancer.     

Deep Geothermal:The‘Moon Landing’ Mission in the Unconventional Energy and Minerals Space

Deep geothermal from the hot crystalline basement has remained an unsolved frontier for the geothermal industry for the past 30 years. This poses the challenge for developing a new un-conventional geom...     

Oncogene-induced senescence as an initial barrier in lymphoma development

Acute induction of oncogenic Ras provokes cellular senescence involving the retinoblastoma (Rb) pathway, but the tumour suppressive potential of senescence in vivo remains elusive. Recently, Rb-mediated silencing of growth-promoting genes by heterochromatin formation associated with methylation of histone H3 lysine 9 (H3K9me) was identified as a critical feature of cellular senescence, which may depend on the histone methyltransferase Suv39h1. Here we show that Emicro-N-Ras transgenic mice harbouring targeted heterozygous lesions at the Suv39h1, or the p53 locus for comparison, succumb to invasive T-cell lymphomas that lack expression of Suv39h1 or p53, respectively. By contrast, most N-Ras-transgenic wild-type ('control') animals develop a non-lymphoid neoplasia significantly later. Proliferation of primary lymphocytes is directly stalled by a Suv39h1-dependent, H3K9me-related senescent growth arrest in response to oncogenic Ras, thereby cancelling lymphomagenesis at an initial step. Suv39h1-deficient lymphoma cells grow rapidly but, unlike p53-deficient cells, remain highly susceptible to adriamycin-induced apoptosis. In contrast, only control, but not Suv39h1-deficient or p53-deficient, lymphomas senesce after drug therapy when apoptosis is blocked. These results identify H3K9me-mediated senescence as a novel Suv39h1-dependent tumour suppressor mechanism whose inactivation permits the formation of aggressive but apoptosis-competent lymphomas in response to oncogenic Ras.     

Linear ubiquitination prevents inflammation and regulates immune signalling

Members of the tumour necrosis factor (TNF) receptor superfamily have important functions in immunity and inflammation. Recently linear ubiquitin chains assembled by a complex containing HOIL-1 and HOIP (also known as RBCK1 and RNF31, respectively) were implicated in TNF signalling, yet their relevance in vivo remained uncertain. Here we identify SHARPIN as a third component of the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex, recruited to the CD40 and TNF receptor signalling complexes together with its other constituents, HOIL-1 and HOIP. Mass spectrometry of TNF signalling complexes revealed RIP1 (also known as RIPK1) and NEMO (also known as IKKγ or IKBKG) to be linearly ubiquitinated. Mutation of the Sharpin gene (Sharpin(cpdm/cpdm)) causes chronic proliferative dermatitis (cpdm) characterized by inflammatory skin lesions and defective lymphoid organogenesis. Gene induction by TNF, CD40 ligand and interleukin-1β was attenuated in cpdm-derived cells which were rendered sensitive to TNF-induced death. Importantly, Tnf gene deficiency prevented skin lesions in cpdm mice. We conclude that by enabling linear ubiquitination in the TNF receptor signalling complex, SHARPIN interferes with TNF-induced cell death and, thereby, prevents inflammation. Our results provide evidence for the relevance of linear ubiquitination in vivo in preventing inflammation and regulating immune signalling.