On the Difficulty of Measuring Forecasting Skill in Financial Markets

The use of correlation between forecasts and actual returns is commonplace in the literature, often used as a measurement of investors' skill. A prominent application of this is the concept of the information coefficient (IC). Not only can the IC be used as a tool to rate analysts and fund managers but it also represents an important parameter in the asset allocation and portfolio construction process. Nevertheless, a theoretical understanding of it has typically been limited to the partial equilibrium context where the investing activities of each agent have no effect on other market participants. In this paper we show that this can be an undesirable oversimplification and we demonstrate plausible circumstances in which conventional empirical measurements of IC can be highly misleading. We suggest that improved understanding of IC in a general equilibrium setting can lead to refined portfolio decision making ex ante and more informative analysis of performance ex post. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle

Four methods of model selection—equally weighted forecasts, Bayesian model‐averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine‐learning algorithm boosting—are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points with a set of common macroeconomic variables. The methods address a fundamental problem faced by forecasters: the most useful model is simple but makes use of all relevant indicators. The results indicate that successful models of recession condition on different economic indicators at different forecast horizons. Predictors that describe real economic activity provide the clearest signal of recession at very short horizons. In contrast, signals from housing and financial markets produce the best forecasts at longer forecast horizons. A real‐time forecast experiment explores the predictability of the 2001 and 2007 recessions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new species of Schizopera (Copepoda: Harpacticoida) from Japan,its phylogeny based on the mtCOI gene and comments on the genus Schizoperopsis

The predominantly marine genus Schizopera Sars, 1905 has only two significant inland water species-flocks, one in the ancient African Lake Tanganyika and the other in subterranean waters of Western Australia. Discovery of Schizopera abei sp. nov. from several interstitial locations in the vicinity of the ancient Lake Biwa has wider implications for the study of morphological homoplasies in the genus, as well as for the study of freshwater invasions in harpacticoid copepods. The new Schizopera species belongs to a small group of congeners with a two-segmented endopod of the fourth leg, which used to be recognised as a separate genus, Schizoperopsis Apostolov, 1982. Our reconstructed phylogenies based on the mtCOI partial sequences suggest that this character probably evolved convergently in at least some Schizopera, thus rendering the genus Schizoperopsis polyphyletic. However, almost all basal nodes in our cladograms are weakly supported, which shows limitations of a single-gene approach for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships. The new species is the first member of its genus from Japanese inland waters, and it has no close relatives among extent congeners anywhere in the world. We speculate that its ancestor may have invaded Lake Biwa, and subsequently its surrounding subterranean waters, from brackish areas around central Japan, presumably during a period of high sea water level through its major outflow river. This discovery may provide further support for the hypothesis about the role of ancient lakes as biodiversity pumps for subterranean habitats.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:1F71F7AD-B7C8-4AD3-BE44-5E1BEE4E2AA8     

量子全加法器的修改和算法研究

通过与经典全加器的基本模型进行比较后,讨论了一个改进后的量子平面加法器的基本构型.对其原理、组件和算法进行了研究,比较了本加法器两个主要组件与一般量子加法器的不同.作为应用的例,设计了一个n比特量子全加法器的模型,对其具体运算过程和基本功能进行了说明.     

多段折线逼近法在智能气压传感器设计中的应用

提出了在智能气压传感器算法设计中,利用多段折线逼近法实现非线性校正的一种应用技巧,并以计算出的结果与实验标定数据相比较,验证了该方法的可行性.     

Randomized unit root processes for modelling and forecasting financial time series: Theory and applications

This paper considers the problems of statistically analysing the levels of financial time series rather than their differences, which are often equivalent to returns and which are traditionally analysed in econometric modelling. This focus on differences is a consequence of the inherent nonstationarity of the levels, and hence analysing the latter requires introducing an alternative framework for modelling nonstationary behaviour. We do this by considering randomized unit root processes, arguing that these can have a natural interpretation in the financial context. The paper thus develops methods for testing for randomized unit roots and for modelling such processes. It then applies these techniques to various financial time series, so as to ascertain their potential usefulness, particularly for forecasting.     

The complement system in age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a chronic and progressive degenerative disease of the retina, which culminates in blindness and affects mainly the elderly population. AMD pathogenesis and pathophysiology are incredibly complex due to the structural and cellular complexity of the retina, and the variety of risk factors and molecular mechanisms that contribute to disease onset and progression. AMD is driven by a combination of genetic predisposition, natural ageing changes and lifestyle factors, such as smoking or nutritional intake. The mechanism by which these risk factors interact and converge towards AMD are not fully understood and therefore drug discovery is challenging, where no therapeutic attempt has been fully effective thus far. Genetic and molecular studies have identified the complement system as an important player in AMD. Indeed, many of the genetic risk variants cluster in genes of the alternative pathway of the complement system and complement activation products are elevated in AMD patients. Nevertheless, attempts in treating AMD via complement regulators have not yet been successful, suggesting a level of complexity that could not be predicted only from a genetic point of view. In this review, we will explore the role of complement system in AMD development and in the main molecular and cellular features of AMD, including complement activation itself, inflammation, ECM stability, energy metabolism and oxidative stress.

     

Prion protein cleavage fragments regulate adult neural stem cell quiescence through redox modulation of mitochondrial fission and SOD2 expression

Neurogenesis continues in the post-developmental brain throughout life. The ability to stimulate the production of new neurones requires both quiescent and actively proliferating pools of neural stem cells (NSCs). Actively proliferating NSCs ensure that neurogenic demand can be met, whilst the quiescent pool makes certain NSC reserves do not become depleted. The processes preserving the NSC quiescent pool are only just beginning to be defined. Herein, we identify a switch between NSC proliferation and quiescence through changing intracellular redox signalling. We show that N-terminal post-translational cleavage products of the prion protein (PrP) induce a quiescent state, halting NSC cellular growth, migration, and neurite outgrowth. Quiescence is initiated by the PrP cleavage products through reducing intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species. First, inhibition of redox signalling results in increased mitochondrial fission, which rapidly signals quiescence. Thereafter, quiescence is maintained through downstream increases in the expression and activity of superoxide dismutase-2 that reduces mitochondrial superoxide. We further observe that PrP is predominantly cleaved in quiescent NSCs indicating a homeostatic role for this cascade. Our findings provide new insight into the regulation of NSC quiescence, which potentially could influence brain health throughout adult life.