淡水豚类mtDNA 16S rRNA基因的系统发生

ｍｔＤＮＡ １６Ｓ ｒＲＮＡ基因我分析支持将现生淡水豚４个属归入不同的科,即白暨豚科（Ｌｉｐｏｔｉｉｄａｅ）、恒河豚科（Ｐｌａｔａｎｉｓｔｉｄａｅ）、亚河豚科（Ｉｎｉｉｄａｅ）和弗西豚科（Ｐｏｎｔｏｐｏｒｉｄａｅ）。基于邻接法的系统发生分析显示淡水豚类由白暨豚＋恒河豚和弗西豚＋亚河豚两个单系组成,但两个单系之间并无姊妹关系。淡水豚类是并系的。１６Ｓ ｒＲＮＡ基因的系统发生树与ｍｔＤＮＡ细胞色素ｂ基     

Financial density forecasts: A comprehensive comparison of risk‐neutral and historical schemes

We investigate the forecasting ability of the most commonly used benchmarks in financial economics. We approach the usual caveats of probabilistic forecasts studies—small samples, limited models, and nonholistic validations—by performing a comprehensive comparison of 15 predictive schemes during a time period of over 21 years. All densities are evaluated in terms of their statistical consistency, local accuracy and forecasting errors. Using a new composite indicator, the integrated forecast score, we show that risk‐neutral densities outperform historical‐based predictions in terms of information content. We find that the variance gamma model generates the highest out‐of‐sample likelihood of observed prices and the lowest predictive errors, whereas the GARCH‐based GJR‐FHS delivers the most consistent forecasts across the entire density range. In contrast, lognormal densities, the Heston model, or the nonparametric Breeden–Litzenberger formula yield biased predictions and are rejected in statistical tests.     

Forecasting Daily Variations of Stock Index Returns with a Multifractal Model of Realized Volatility

Multifractal models have recently been introduced as a new type of data‐generating process for asset returns and other financial data. Here we propose an adaptation of this model for realized volatility. We estimate this new model via generalized method of moments and perform forecasting by means of best linear forecasts derived via the Levinson–Durbin algorithm. Its out‐of‐sample performance is compared against other popular time series specifications. Using an intra‐day dataset for five major international stock market indices, we find that the the multifractal model for realized volatility improves upon forecasts of its earlier counterparts based on daily returns and of many other volatility models. While the more traditional RV‐ARFIMA model comes out as the most successful model (in terms of the number of cases in which it has the best forecasts for all combinations of forecast horizons and evaluation criteria), the new model performs often significantly better during the turbulent times of the recent financial crisis. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carapace ontogeny of the bromeliad dwelling ostracod Elpidium bromeliarum Müller, 1880 (Crustacea: Ostracoda)

Ostracods have discontinuous development, marked by ecdyses, and determinate growth. Ontogenetic studies have suggested a pattern of nine postembryonic stages (eight juvenile phases and the adult) for the main freshwater ostracod superfamilies Cypridoidea, Cytheroidea and Darwinuloidea. However, cases of a supposed extra moult in the adult stage have been proposed for some ostracod species, which would amount to 10 postembryonic growth stages. One such example is Elpidium bromeliarum Müller, 1880, a cytheroidean that inhabits tank-bromeliads. The present study is aimed at investigating the ontogenetic development of E. bromeliarum using width and length measurements, as well as carapace and appendage morphology in order to test the existing hypothesis of an additional growth stage in adults of this species. Our results revealed nine postembryonic growth stages (eight juvenile and the adult), with sexual dimorphism beginning its expression in the last juvenile stage. Thus, the ontogenetic development of E. bromeliarum agrees with the overall pattern observed for podocopid ostracods and the hypothesis of 10 postembryonic growth stages was not corroborated. We argue that the inability to differentiate juveniles from adults, or different species from one another, may have misled to the assumption of an additional moult in E. bromeliarum.     

The Future of Mathematics in Economics: A Philosophically Grounded Proposal

The use of mathematics in economics has been widely discussed. The philosophical discussion on what mathematics is remains unsettled on why it can be applied to the study of the real world. We propose to get back to some philosophical conceptions that lead to a language-like role for the mathematical analysis of economic phenomena and present some problems of interest that can be better examined in this light. Category theory provides the appropriate tools for these analytical approach.     

A systems biology analysis of the Drosophila phagosome

Phagocytes have a critical function in remodelling tissues during embryogenesis and thereafter are central effectors of immune defence. During phagocytosis, particles are internalized into 'phagosomes', organelles from which immune processes such as microbial destruction and antigen presentation are initiated. Certain pathogens have evolved mechanisms to evade the immune system and persist undetected within phagocytes, and it is therefore evident that a detailed knowledge of this process is essential to an understanding of many aspects of innate and adaptive immunity. However, despite the crucial role of phagosomes in immunity, their components and organization are not fully defined. Here we present a systems biology analysis of phagosomes isolated from cells derived from the genetically tractable model organism Drosophila melanogaster and address the complex dynamic interactions between proteins within this organelle and their involvement in particle engulfment. Proteomic analysis identified 617 proteins potentially associated with Drosophila phagosomes; these were organized by protein-protein interactions to generate the 'phagosome interactome', a detailed protein-protein interaction network of this subcellular compartment. These networks predicted both the architecture of the phagosome and putative biomodules. The contribution of each protein and complex to bacterial internalization was tested by RNA-mediated interference and identified known components of the phagocytic machinery. In addition, the prediction and validation of regulators of phagocytosis such as the 'exocyst', a macromolecular complex required for exocytosis but not previously implicated in phagocytosis, validates this strategy. In generating this 'systems-based model', we show the power of applying this approach to the study of complex cellular processes and organelles and expect that this detailed model of the phagosome will provide a new framework for studying host-pathogen interactions and innate immunity.     

Soft System Dynamics Methodology in Action: A study of the Problem of Citizen Insecurity in an Argentinean Province

This paper illustrates an application of soft system dynamics methodology (SSDM). SSDM arose as a fusion of two well-known methodologies in the systems movement: system dynamics (SD) and soft systems methodology (SSM). SSDM includes 10 steps to orchestrate and implant change in social systems, based on a multimethodological and multiparadigmatic approach as an outcome of the combination of the mentioned methodologies. After a brief introduction, the paper starts by briefly explaining SSM and SD, their stages and their problematical issues as systemic methodologies, then goes on to explain SSDM, its philosophical roots and stages, ending with a comparison among the three. It then introduces the citizen insecurity problem in Argentina, specifically in Mendoza Province, where SSDM was applied to analyze this issue. The paper concludes with an explanation of the learning points that arose from the use of SSDM in this study and suggestions for further research on citizen security and SSDM.