The consistency,coherence and calibration of holistic,decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

In this paper we make an empirical investigation of the relationship between the consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgements in a real-world forecasting context. Our results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's probability assessments are not closely related as we anticipated. Twenty-nine of our thirty-six subjects were better calibrated in point probabilities than in odds and our subjects were, in general more coherent using point probabilities than odds forecasts. Contrary to our expectations we found very little difference in forecasting response and performance between simple and compound holistic forecasts. This result is evidence against the ‘divide-and-conquer’ rationale underlying most applications of normative decision theory. In addition, our recompositions of marginal and conditional assessments into compound forecasts were no better calibrated or resolved than their holistic counterparts. These findings convey two implications for forecasting. First, untrained judgemental forecasters should use point probabilities in preference to odds. Second, judgemental forecasts of complex compound probabilities may be as well assessed holistically as they are using methods of decomposition and recomposition. In addition, our study provides a paradigm for further studies of the relationship between consistency, coherence and validity in judgemental probability forecasting.     

Seasonal adjustment and kalman filtering: Extension to periodic variances

This paper reviews the relations between the methods of seasonal adjustment used by official statistical agencies and the ‘model-based’ methods that postulate explicit stochastic models for the unobserved components of a time series and apply optimal signal extraction theory to obtain a seasonally adjusted series. The Kalman filter implementation of the model-based methods is described and some recent results on its properties are reviewed. The model-based methods employ homogeneous or time-invariant models that assume in particular that the autocovariance structure does not vary with the season. Relaxing this leads to the class of models known as periodic models, and an example of a seasonally heterosceclastic unobserved-components ARIMA (SHUCARIMA) model is presented. The calculation of the standard error of a seasonally adjusted series via the Kalman filter is extended to this periodic model and illustrated for a monthly rainfall series.     

On a family of finite moving‐average trend filters for the ends of series

A family of finite end filters is constructed using a minimum revisions criterion and based on a local dynamic model operating within the span of a given finite central filter. These end filters are equivalent to evaluating the central filter with unavailable future observations replaced by constrained optimal linear predictions. Two prediction methods are considered: best linear unbiased prediction and best linear biased prediction where the bias is time invariant. The properties of these end filters are determined. In particular, they are compared to X‐11 end filters and to the case where the central filter is evaluated with unavailable future observations predicted by global ARIMA models as in X‐11‐ARIMA or X‐12‐ARIMA. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

反物质都到哪里去了?

B介子的测量表明 ,粒子物理的标准模型无法解释为什么宇宙是由物质而不是反物质构成的     

溶菌酶触发的芽孢杆菌芽孢萌发及其异质性研究

【目的】了解溶菌酶触发芽孢杆菌孢子萌发的异质性及其机制,为认识芽孢(Spore)萌发机制和杀灭芽孢提供参考。【方法】应用拉曼光谱和微分干涉差(DIC)显微镜成像技术高通量分析大量单个Bacillus subtilis(Bs)和B.megaterium(Bm)芽孢经溶菌酶触发的萌发动态。【结果】溶菌酶浓度和温度越高,芽孢萌发越快,孢内CaDPA开始快速释放时间(T_(lag))、快速释放所需时间(ΔT_(release))和芽孢皮层水解所需时间(ΔT_(lys))越短;低于20℃,Bs芽孢萌发的ΔT_(release)值是25℃时的4倍以上。SpoVA蛋白高表达菌株的ΔT_(release)值和普通菌株基本相同,而缺少皮层水解酶的菌株ΔT_(release)值高于普通菌株。95℃处理15min的孢子,其T_(lag)、ΔT_(release)和ΔT_(lys)值是对照的2倍以上。Bs芽孢萌发的异质性明显,不仅表现在芽孢间,也表现在菌株间。Bm芽孢对溶菌酶更敏感,芽孢间的异质性显著低于Bs。【结论】溶菌酶触发的芽孢萌发在物种、菌株和单细胞层面都存在显著的异质性;溶菌酶浓度和温度对芽孢萌发有重大影响;皮层水解酶也可能参与溶菌酶触发的芽孢萌发进程。     

Capture of hydroxymethylene and its fast disappearance through tunnelling

Singlet carbenes exhibit a divalent carbon atom whose valence shell contains only six electrons, four involved in bonding to two other atoms and the remaining two forming a non-bonding electron pair. These features render singlet carbenes so reactive that they were long considered too short-lived for isolation and direct characterization. This view changed when it was found that attaching the divalent carbon atom to substituents that are bulky and/or able to donate electrons produces carbenes that can be isolated and stored. N-heterocyclic carbenes are such compounds now in wide use, for example as ligands in metathesis catalysis. In contrast, oxygen-donor-substituted carbenes are inherently less stable and have been less studied. The pre-eminent case is hydroxymethylene, H-C-OH; although it is the key intermediate in the high-energy chemistry of its tautomer formaldehyde, has been implicated since 1921 in the photocatalytic formation of carbohydrates, and is the parent of alkoxycarbenes that lie at the heart of transition-metal carbene chemistry, all attempts to observe this species or other alkoxycarbenes have failed. However, theoretical considerations indicate that hydroxymethylene should be isolatable. Here we report the synthesis of hydroxymethylene and its capture by matrix isolation. We unexpectedly find that H-C-OH rearranges to formaldehyde with a half-life of only 2 h at 11 K by pure hydrogen tunnelling through a large energy barrier in excess of 30 kcal mol(-1).     

Machaeridians are Palaeozoic armoured annelids

The systematic affinities of several Palaeozoic skeletal taxa were only resolved when their soft-tissue morphology was revealed by the discovery of exceptionally preserved specimens. The conodonts provide a classic example, their tooth-like elements having been assigned to various invertebrate and vertebrate groups for more than 125 years until the discovery of their soft tissues revealed them to be crown-group vertebrates. Machaeridians, which are virtually ubiquitous as shell plates in benthic marine shelly assemblages ranging from Early Ordovician (Late Tremadoc) to Carboniferous, have proved no less enigmatic. The Machaeridia comprise three distinct families of worm-like animals, united by the possession of a dorsal skeleton of calcite plates that is rarely found articulated. Since they were first described 150 years ago machaeridians have been allied with barnacles, echinoderms, molluscs or annelids. Here we describe a new machaeridian with preserved soft parts, including parapodia and chaetae, from the Upper Tremadoc of Morocco, demonstrating the annelid affinity of the group. This discovery shows that a lineage of annelids evolved a dorsal skeleton of calcareous plates early in their history; it also resolves the affinities of a group of problematic Palaeozoic invertebrates previously known only from isolated elements and occasional skeletal assemblages.     

Origin of a 'Southern Hemisphere' geochemical signature in the Arctic upper mantle

The Gakkel ridge, which extends under the Arctic ice cap for approximately 1,800 km, is the slowest spreading ocean ridge on Earth. Its spreading created the Eurasian basin, which is isolated from the rest of the oceanic mantle by North America, Eurasia and the Lomonosov ridge. The Gakkel ridge thus provides unique opportunities to investigate the composition of the sub-Arctic mantle and mantle heterogeneity and melting at the lower limits of seafloor spreading. The first results of the 2001 Arctic Mid-Ocean Ridge Expedition (ref. 1) divided the Gakkel ridge into three tectonic segments, composed of robust western and eastern volcanic zones separated by a 'sparsely magmatic zone'. On the basis of Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios and trace elements in basalts from the spreading axis, we show that the sparsely magmatic zone contains an abrupt mantle compositional boundary. Basalts to the west of the boundary display affinities to the Southern Hemisphere 'Dupal' isotopic province, whereas those to the east-closest to the Eurasian continent and where the spreading rate is slowest-display affinities to 'Northern Hemisphere' ridges. The western zone is the only known spreading ridge outside the Southern Hemisphere that samples a significant upper-mantle region with Dupal-like characteristics. Although the cause of Dupal mantle has been long debated, we show that the source of this signature beneath the western Gakkel ridge was subcontinental lithospheric mantle that delaminated and became integrated into the convecting Arctic asthenosphere. This occurred as North Atlantic mantle propagated north into the Arctic during the separation of Svalbard and Greenland.