Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models

Three general classes of state space models are presented, using the single source of error formulation. The first class is the standard linear model with homoscedastic errors, the second retains the linear structure but incorporates a dynamic form of heteroscedasticity, and the third allows for non‐linear structure in the observation equation as well as heteroscedasticity. These three classes provide stochastic models for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. We use these classes to provide exact analytic (matrix) expressions for forecast error variances that can be used to construct prediction intervals one or multiple steps ahead. These formulas are reduced to non‐matrix expressions for 15 state space models that underlie the most common exponential smoothing methods. We discuss relationships between our expressions and previous suggestions for finding forecast error variances and prediction intervals for exponential smoothing methods. Simpler approximations are developed for the more complex schemes and their validity examined. The paper concludes with a numerical example using a non‐linear model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Knowing and Acting in Conditions of Uncertainty: A Complexity Perspective

As practitioners working with groups and organizations, we have reflected together on what we think is happening when we find ourselves acting into situations in which the intention motivating the action as its goal is itself emerging in the very action. Along with others, we have been excited by the ideas of self-organization in the natural sciences and also theories of practice, for example, tacit and explicit knowledge, in the social sciences. Together, these promise fresh insights into the potential of organizations. However, we find ourselves diverging significantly from writers who at first sight seem to be using similar ideas, but they do so with an exclusive focus on strategic choice and intention. To illustrate what we mean, we explore the work of Nonaka and Takeuchi and how they use Polanyi's idea of the participant observer. We do this to identify contradictions we see in their approach. We also discuss the implications of an alternative understanding of participation and what this indicates about what can and cannot be managed in the creation of new knowledge.     

Vigorous exchange between the Indian and Atlantic oceans at the end of the past five glacial periods

The magnitude of heat and salt transfer between the Indian and Atlantic oceans through 'Agulhas leakage' is considered important for balancing the global thermohaline circulation. Increases or reductions of this leakage lead to strengthening or weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning and associated variation of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. Here we show that modern Agulhas waters, which migrate into the south Atlantic Ocean in the form of an Agulhas ring, contain a characteristic assemblage of planktic foraminifera. We use this assemblage as a modern analogue to investigate the Agulhas leakage history over the past 550,000 years from a sediment record in the Cape basin. Our reconstruction indicates that Indian-Atlantic water exchange was highly variable: enhanced during present and past interglacials and largely reduced during glacial intervals. Coherent variability of Agulhas leakage with northern summer insolation suggests a teleconnection to the monsoon system. The onset of increased Agulhas leakage during late glacial conditions took place when glacial ice volume was maximal, suggesting a crucial role for Agulhas leakage in glacial terminations, timing of interhemispheric climate change and the resulting resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.     

太原市二氧化硫污染状况及评价

通过对太原市不同季节、不同监测位点大气二氧化硫(SO2)浓度的监测，分析了太原市SO2污染状况，指出在太原市对SO2排放企业的治理和管理工作势在必行。     

Defects in whirlin,a PDZ domain molecule involved in stereocilia elongation,cause deafness in the whirler mouse and families with DFNB31

The whirler mouse mutant (wi) does not respond to sound stimuli, and detailed ultrastructural analysis of sensory hair cells in the organ of Corti of the inner ear indicates that the whirler gene encodes a protein involved in the elongation and maintenance of stereocilia in both inner hair cells (IHCs) and outer hair cells (OHCs). BAC-mediated transgene correction of the mouse phenotype and mutation analysis identified the causative gene as encoding a novel PDZ protein called whirlin. The gene encoding whirlin also underlies the human autosomal recessive deafness locus DFNB31. In the mouse cochlea, whirlin is expressed in the sensory IHC and OHC stereocilia. Our findings suggest that this novel PDZ domain-containing molecule acts as an organizer of submembranous molecular complexes that control the coordinated actin polymerization and membrane growth of stereocilia.     

Demonstration of an all-optical quantum controlled-NOT gate

The promise of tremendous computational power, coupled with the development of robust error-correcting schemes, has fuelled extensive efforts to build a quantum computer. The requirements for realizing such a device are confounding: scalable quantum bits (two-level quantum systems, or qubits) that can be well isolated from the environment, but also initialized, measured and made to undergo controllable interactions to implement a universal set of quantum logic gates. The usual set consists of single qubit rotations and a controlled-NOT (CNOT) gate, which flips the state of a target qubit conditional on the control qubit being in the state 1. Here we report an unambiguous experimental demonstration and comprehensive characterization of quantum CNOT operation in an optical system. We produce all four entangled Bell states as a function of only the input qubits' logical values, for a single operating condition of the gate. The gate is probabilistic (the qubits are destroyed upon failure), but with the addition of linear optical quantum non-demolition measurements, it is equivalent to the CNOT gate required for scalable all-optical quantum computation.     

Transforming potential of the c-fms proto-oncogene (CSF-1 receptor)

The c-fms proto-oncogene encodes a transmembrane glycoprotein that is probably identical to the receptor for the macrophage colony stimulating factor, CSF-1. Forty C-terminal amino acids of the normal receptor are replaced by 11 unrelated residues in the feline v-fms oncogene product, deleting a C-terminal tyrosine residue (Tyr969) whose phosphorylation might negatively regulate the receptor kinase activity. We show that the human c-fms gene stimulates growth of mouse NIH 3T3 cells in agar in response to human recombinant CSF-1, indicating that receptor transduction is sufficient to induce a CSF-1 responsive phenotype. Although cells transfected with c-fms genes containing either Tyr969 or Phe969 were not transformed, cotransfection of these genes with CSF-1 complementary DNA induced transformation, with c-fms(Phe969) showing significantly more activity than c-fms(Tyr969). In the absence of CSF-1, chimaeric v-fms/c-fms genes encoding the wild-type c-fms C terminus were poorly transforming, whereas chimaeras bearing Phe969 were as transforming as v-fms. Thus, the Phe969 mutation, although not in itself sufficient to induce transformation, activates the oncogenic potential of c-fms in association with an endogenous ligand or in conjunction with mutations elsewhere in the c-fms gene that confer ligand-independent signals for growth.     

化学镀镍废液处理新工艺及机理研究

通过化学沉淀法从废液中回收镍离子，继而采用硫酸亚铁为共沉剂，进一步处理上述废液，达到去除剩余镍离子的目的，考察了双氧水、氢氧化钠、硫酸亚铁用量及反应时间对化学镀镍废液处理结果的影响，并对反应机理进行了初步探讨，结果表明，新工艺双氧水用量少、回收镍纯度高，经济可行。     

Video Structure Analysis

Video structure analysis is a basic requirement for most content-based video editing and processing systems. This paper presents a fast video structure analysis method based on image segmentation in each frame, with region matching between frames. The structure analysis decomposes the video into several moving objects, including information about their colors, positions, shapes, movements, and lifetimes. The method also supports user interactions to improve the results. The result shows that this method is fast and stable and can complete video analyzinq interactivelv.     

金属磁记忆检测的机理及实现

现代工业的发展,离不开各种先进的无损检测(NDT)手段.但纵观传统的NDT方法,都是在部件缺陷发展形成以后才能被发现.金属磁记忆诊断技术是目前唯一能预测部件早期损伤的新方法.本文从晶体结构出发,在理论上和实验上分析了金属磁记忆检测的机理,并建立了系统模型.