基于SD-SEM模型的消费者食品安全风险感知的信息搜寻行为

本文利用系统动力学模型和结构方程模型来研究消费者食品安全风险感知和消费者信息搜寻行为之间的关系,在总结消费者食品安全风险感知和消费者食品安全信息搜寻行为研究文献的基础上,利用结构方程确定消费者食品安全风险感知的影响因素及其之间的路径系数,进而建立系统动力学模型模拟信息搜寻行为对消费者食品安全风险感知的影响,以提出降低消费者食品安全风险感知的建议.     

基于网络关注度的大宗商品市场预测研究

随着大宗商品市场化的加快和电子信息技术的快速发展,以互联网为载体的网络信息将方便快捷地传递到市场及市场参与者.本文从海量开源数据出发,利用搜索引擎平台,提取核心信息构建网络关注度指标,并提出了基于网络关注度的大宗商品价格预测模型.通过引入具有不同核函数的支持向量回归模型,分别建立了针对单个市场(原油、铜以及玉米)的网络关注度预测模型和综合考虑市场间联动性的多市场网络关注度预测模型.实证结果表明,网络关注度对于市场价格的变动有显著的格兰杰因果关系,引入网络关注度指标和相关市场信息能显著提高预测精度.     

动态抗饱和平滑切换控制器设计方法

针对一类受饱和约束的切换系统,提出了一种动态抗饱和平滑切换控制器的设计方法。首先,基于模型依赖平均驻留时间的方法设计了平滑切换控制器,能够确保系统全局一致渐进稳定并具有一定的鲁棒性能。同时,通过引入链式切换律降低控制器设计的保守性。在此基础上,给出动态抗饱和补偿器的设计方法。将动态抗饱和补偿器设计问题转化为受线性矩阵不等式组约束的优化问题。以航天器在轨加注过程姿态控制系统为例,建立了该系统的链式平滑切换模型,上述模型能够更加准确地反映系统转动惯量的渐变特性。最后,数值仿真算例表明了所提出的控制器设计方法的有效性。     

A DEA-TOPSIS method for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management

A hybrid approach of DEA (data envelopment analysis) and TOPSIS (technique for order performance (preference) by similarity to ideal solution) is proposed for multiple criteria decision analysis in emergency management. Two DEA-based optimization models are constructed to facilitate identifying parameter information regarding criterion weights and quantifying qualitative criteria in TOPSIS. An emergency management case study utilizing data from the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) Disasters Database is provided to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed analysis procedure.     

基于模糊控制的WSN移动节点自主导航算法

设计了一种利用无线传感器网络(WSN)节点间通信信号强度信息(RSSI)及网络拓扑结构实现移动节点自主导航的方法。将机器人作为WSN的移动节点,利用RSSI势场量化的坐标空间描述机器人状态及目标位置,有效避免将RSSI值转换为距离时带来的模型误差。由若干个信标节点组成一个基于模糊控制的分布式导航系统,每个信标节点都是一个独立的模糊控制单元,最后由决策控制中心综合各信标节点的输出量决定机器人的航向。仿真和现场实验都表明该方法的有效性。     

DDFS spurious signals due to amplitude quantization in absence of phase-accumulator truncation

Spurious signals in direct digital frequency synthesizers (DDFSs) are partly caused by amplitude quantization and phase truncation, which affect their application to many wireless telecommunication systems. Thee signals are deterministic and periodic in the time domain, so they appear as line spectra in the frequency domain. Two types of spurious signals due to amplitude quantization are exactly formulated and compared in thetime and frequency domains respectively. Then the frequency spectra and power levels of the spurious signals due to amplitude quantization in the absence of phase-accumulator truncation are emphatically analyzed, and the effects of the DDFS parameter variations on the spurious signals are thoroughly studied by computer simulation. And several important conclusions are derived which can provide theoretical support for parameter choice and spurious performance evaluation in the application of DDFSs.     

新农村建设之系统工程刍议

社会主义新农村建设是一项伟大的系统工程,其意义重大,影响深远.推进与实现这一伟大系统工程,就必须深刻理解其内容的丰富性,注重物质文明、政治文明、精神文明、生态文明建设有机结合与综合协调的发展,防止与避免单求建新房、换新貌的片面性;就必须确切把握其结构的层次性,处理好时空秩序、内容结构、主次矛盾等问题以及相互之间的关系,防止与避免不分头绪,急于求成的急躁性;、就必须充分认识其模式的多样性,多元化推进与发展各具特色的新农村,防止与避免搞一个模式、一种套路的强制性;就必须全面了解其建设的过程性,并明确长期性、艰巨性、动态性以及连续性和阶段性等发展过程中的特点,注意防止与避免搞政绩工程与形象工程的冒进性.     

基于非线性内电位构造函数的抗伪状态联想记忆

针对传统Hopfield神经网络在联想记忆中存在的大量伪状态,设计出一种以非线性内电位函数构造为核心的抗伪状态方案,以取代传统的Hebb规则及其外积法,建立了一种抗伪状态的联想记忆网络(ASS-SSNN),并通过吸引域的变化研究抗伪状态方案的正确性和有效性.仿真结果表明:ASS-SSNN比采用传统Hebb规则及其外积法的Hopfield联想记忆网络(HNN)在容错性上更优,记忆状态的吸引域明显增大,存储容量也有所增加.     

A multiyear lags input-holding-output model on education with excluding idle capital

This paper develops a multi-year lag Input-Holding-Output (I-H-O) Model on education with exclusion of the idle capital to address the reasonable education structure in support of a sustainable development strategy in China. First, the model considers the multiyear lag of human capital because the lag time of human capital is even longer and more important than that of fixed capital. Second, it considers the idle capital resulting from the output decline in education, for example, student decrease in primary school. The new generalized Leonitief dynamic inverse is deduced to obtain a positive solution on education when output declines as well as expands. After compiling the 2000 I-H-O table on education, the authors adopt modifications-by-step method to treat nonlinear coefficients, and calculate education scale, the requirement of human capital, and education expenditure from 2005 to 2020. It is found that structural imbalance of human capital is a serious problem for Chinese economic development. This research was supporting by the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60874119, Innovation Funds of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences in colleges under Grant No. 06BJY102, Key project in Jiangxi Soft Science Project under Grant No. [2006]188, Jiangxi Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences in colleges under Grant No. 03JJ01, and Henan Research Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences in colleges under Grant No. 2008-ZD-002.     

湖北作物气候生产力演变及其对气候变化的响应

利用湖北省76个气象台站1960～2005年逐年年平均气温、降水资料,应用Miami模型、Thomthwaite Memorial模型对湖北省气温气候生产力（TSPt）、降水气候生产力（TSPn）和蒸散量气候生产力（TSPv）进行了估算,并采用EOF、RE．OF、EEOF、Mann—Kendall检验、小波分析等方法研究了湖北省TSPv的演变及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：降水是大部分地区作物产量的限制因素;TSPv在时间上波动明显,在空间上受地形、降水、人类活动等因素影响,西部山地区震荡特征明显,东部平原丘陵区具有稳定的上升趋势,西北山地区是震荡的敏感区;未来“暖湿型”气候对作物生长最有利,“冷干型”气候对作物生长最不利,北部地区是气候变化的敏感区。图4,表2,参11。