The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors

A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in (1) the method of estimating the model parameters, (2) the period between re-estimations, (3) the growth curve fitted and (4) the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The response to variation of the parameter review period was found to behave surprisingly, in that it exhibited different signs for two different estimation methods. Changes in re-estimation period explained somewhat more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal improved performance.     

Relativistic ejecta from X-ray flash XRF 060218 and the rate of cosmic explosions

Over the past decade, long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs)--including the subclass of X-ray flashes (XRFs)--have been revealed to be a rare variety of type Ibc supernova. Although all these events result from the death of massive stars, the electromagnetic luminosities of GRBs and XRFs exceed those of ordinary type Ibc supernovae by many orders of magnitude. The essential physical process that causes a dying star to produce a GRB or XRF, and not just a supernova, is still unknown. Here we report radio and X-ray observations of XRF 060218 (associated with supernova SN 2006aj), the second-nearest GRB identified until now. We show that this event is a hundred times less energetic but ten times more common than cosmological GRBs. Moreover, it is distinguished from ordinary type Ibc supernovae by the presence of 10(48) erg coupled to mildly relativistic ejecta, along with a central engine (an accretion-fed, rapidly rotating compact source) that produces X-rays for weeks after the explosion. This suggests that the production of relativistic ejecta is the key physical distinction between GRBs or XRFs and ordinary supernovae, while the nature of the central engine (black hole or magnetar) may distinguish typical bursts from low-luminosity, spherical events like XRF 060218.     

Early optical emission from the gamma-ray burst of 4 October 2002

Observations of the long-lived emission--or 'afterglow'--of long-duration gamma-ray bursts place them at cosmological distances, but the origin of these energetic explosions remains a mystery. Observations of optical emission contemporaneous with the burst of gamma-rays should provide insight into the details of the explosion, as well as into the structure of the surrounding environment. One bright optical flash was detected during a burst, but other efforts have produced negative results. Here we report the discovery of the optical counterpart of GRB021004 only 193 seconds after the event. The initial decline is unexpectedly slow and requires varying energy content in the gamma-ray burst blastwave over the course of the first hour. Further analysis of the X-ray and optical afterglow suggests additional energy variations over the first few days.     

Evidence for a link between global lightning activity and upper tropospheric water vapour

Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.     

The mammalian sodium channel BNC1 is required for normal touch sensation

Of the vertebrate senses, touch is the least understood at the molecular level The ion channels that form the core of the mechanosensory complex and confer touch sensitivity remain unknown. However, the similarity of the brain sodium channel 1 (BNC1) to nematode proteins involved in mechanotransduction indicated that it might be a part of such a mechanosensor. Here we show that disrupting the mouse BNC1 gene markedly reduces the sensitivity of a specific component of mechanosensation: low-threshold rapidly adapting mechanoreceptors. In rodent hairy skin these mechanoreceptors are excited by hair movement. Consistent with this function, we found BNC1 in the lanceolate nerve endings that lie adjacent to and surround the hair follicle. Although BNC1 has been proposed to have a role in pH sensing, the acid-evoked current in cultured sensory neurons and the response of acid-stimulated nociceptors were normal in BNC1 null mice. These data identify the BNC1 channel as essential for the normal detection of light touch and indicate that BNC1 may be a central component of a mechanosensory complex.     

HIV preferentially infects HIV-specific CD4+ T cells

HIV infection is associated with the progressive loss of CD4(+) T cells through their destruction or decreased production. A central, yet unresolved issue of HIV disease is the mechanism for this loss, and in particular whether HIV-specific CD4(+) T cells are preferentially affected. Here we show that HIV-specific memory CD4(+) T cells in infected individuals contain more HIV viral DNA than other memory CD4(+) T cells, at all stages of HIV disease. Additionally, following viral rebound during interruption of antiretroviral therapy, the frequency of HIV viral DNA in the HIV-specific pool of memory CD4(+) T cells increases to a greater extent than in memory CD4(+) T cells of other specificities. These findings show that HIV-specific CD4(+) T cells are preferentially infected by HIV in vivo. This provides a potential mechanism to explain the loss of HIV-specific CD4(+) T-cell responses, and consequently the loss of immunological control of HIV replication. Furthermore, the phenomenon of HIV specifically infecting the very cells that respond to it adds a cautionary note to the practice of structured therapy interruption.     

Neurolinguistics: structural plasticity in the bilingual brain

Humans have a unique ability to learn more than one language--a skill that is thought to be mediated by functional (rather than structural) plastic changes in the brain. Here we show that learning a second language increases the density of grey matter in the left inferior parietal cortex and that the degree of structural reorganization in this region is modulated by the proficiency attained and the age at acquisition. This relation between grey-matter density and performance may represent a general principle of brain organization.