Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The NOX toolbox: validating the role of NADPH oxidases in physiology and disease

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are cellular signals but also disease triggers; their relative excess (oxidative stress) or shortage (reductive stress) compared to reducing equivalents are potentially deleterious. This may explain why antioxidants fail to combat diseases that correlate with oxidative stress. Instead, targeting of disease-relevant enzymatic ROS sources that leaves physiological ROS signaling unaffected may be more beneficial. NADPH oxidases are the only known enzyme family with the sole function to produce ROS. Of the catalytic NADPH oxidase subunits (NOX), NOX4 is the most widely distributed isoform. We provide here a critical review of the currently available experimental tools to assess the role of NOX and especially NOX4, i.e. knock-out mice, siRNAs, antibodies, and pharmacological inhibitors. We then focus on the characterization of the small molecule NADPH oxidase inhibitor, VAS2870, in vitro and in vivo, its specificity, selectivity, and possible mechanism of action. Finally, we discuss the validation of NOX4 as a potential therapeutic target for indications including stroke, heart failure, and fibrosis.     

Multispecies-compatible antitumor effects of a cross-species small-interfering RNA against mammalian target of rapamycin

Successful development of sequence-specific siRNA (small interfering RNA)-based drugs requires an siRNA design that functions consistently in different organisms. Utilizing the CAPSID program previously developed by our group, we here designed siRNAs against mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) that are entirely complementary among various species and investigated their multispecies-compatible gene-silencing properties. The mTOR siRNAs markedly reduced mTOR expression at both the mRNA and protein levels in human, mouse, and monkey cell lines. The reduction in mTOR expression resulted in inactivation of both mTOR complex I and II signaling pathways, as confirmed by reduced phosphorylation of p70S6K (70-kDa ribosomal protein S6 kinase), 4EBP1 (eIF4E-binding protein 1), and AKT, and nuclear accumulation of FOXO1 (forkhead box O1), with consequent cell-cycle arrest, proliferation inhibition, and autophagy activation. Moreover, interfering with mTOR activity in vivo using mTOR small-hairpin RNA-expressing recombinant adeno-associated virus led to significant antitumor effects in xenograft and allograft models. Thus, the present study demonstrates that cross-species siRNA successfully silences its target and readily produces multispecies-compatible phenotypic alterations-antitumor effects in the case of mTOR siRNA. Application of cross-species siRNA should greatly facilitate the development of siRNA-based therapeutic agents.     

Mutations in the RNA exosome component gene EXOSC3 cause pontocerebellar hypoplasia and spinal motor neuron degeneration

RNA exosomes are multi-subunit complexes conserved throughout evolution and are emerging as the major cellular machinery for processing, surveillance and turnover of a diverse spectrum of coding and noncoding RNA substrates essential for viability. By exome sequencing, we discovered recessive mutations in EXOSC3 (encoding exosome component 3) in four siblings with infantile spinal motor neuron disease, cerebellar atrophy, progressive microcephaly and profound global developmental delay, consistent with pontocerebellar hypoplasia type 1 (PCH1; MIM 607596). We identified mutations in EXOSC3 in an additional 8 of 12 families with PCH1. Morpholino knockdown of exosc3 in zebrafish embryos caused embryonic maldevelopment, resulting in small brain size and poor motility, reminiscent of human clinical features, and these defects were largely rescued by co-injection with wild-type but not mutant exosc3 mRNA. These findings represent the first example of an RNA exosome core component gene that is responsible for a human disease and further implicate dysregulation of RNA processing in cerebellar and spinal motor neuron maldevelopment and degeneration.     

Activation of the AXL kinase causes resistance to EGFR-targeted therapy in lung cancer

Human non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLCs) with activating mutations in EGFR frequently respond to treatment with EGFR-targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), such as erlotinib, but responses are not durable, as tumors acquire resistance. Secondary mutations in EGFR (such as T790M) or upregulation of the MET kinase are found in over 50% of resistant tumors. Here, we report increased activation of AXL and evidence for epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in multiple in vitro and in vivo EGFR-mutant lung cancer models with acquired resistance to erlotinib in the absence of the EGFR p.Thr790Met alteration or MET activation. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of AXL restored sensitivity to erlotinib in these tumor models. Increased expression of AXL and, in some cases, of its ligand GAS6 was found in EGFR-mutant lung cancers obtained from individuals with acquired resistance to TKIs. These data identify AXL as a promising therapeutic target whose inhibition could prevent or overcome acquired resistance to EGFR TKIs in individuals with EGFR-mutant lung cancer.     

Genome-wide copy number variation study associates metabotropic glutamate receptor gene networks with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, heritable neuropsychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. We performed a whole-genome copy number variation (CNV) study on 1,013 cases with ADHD and 4,105 healthy children of European ancestry using 550,000 SNPs. We evaluated statistically significant findings in multiple independent cohorts, with a total of 2,493 cases with ADHD and 9,222 controls of European ancestry, using matched platforms. CNVs affecting metabotropic glutamate receptor genes were enriched across all cohorts (P = 2.1 × 10(-9)). We saw GRM5 (encoding glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5) deletions in ten cases and one control (P = 1.36 × 10(-6)). We saw GRM7 deletions in six cases, and we saw GRM8 deletions in eight cases and no controls. GRM1 was duplicated in eight cases. We experimentally validated the observed variants using quantitative RT-PCR. A gene network analysis showed that genes interacting with the genes in the GRM family are enriched for CNVs in ～10% of the cases (P = 4.38 × 10(-10)) after correction for occurrence in the controls. We identified rare recurrent CNVs affecting glutamatergic neurotransmission genes that were overrepresented in multiple ADHD cohorts.     

PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans

Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family.     

The coiled-coil domain containing protein CCDC40 is essential for motile cilia function and left-right axis formation

Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is a genetically heterogeneous autosomal recessive disorder characterized by recurrent infections of the respiratory tract associated with the abnormal function of motile cilia. Approximately half of individuals with PCD also have alterations in the left-right organization of their internal organ positioning, including situs inversus and situs ambiguous (Kartagener's syndrome). Here, we identify an uncharacterized coiled-coil domain containing a protein, CCDC40, essential for correct left-right patterning in mouse, zebrafish and human. In mouse and zebrafish, Ccdc40 is expressed in tissues that contain motile cilia, and mutations in Ccdc40 result in cilia with reduced ranges of motility. We further show that CCDC40 mutations in humans result in a variant of PCD characterized by misplacement of the central pair of microtubules and defective assembly of inner dynein arms and dynein regulatory complexes. CCDC40 localizes to motile cilia and the apical cytoplasm and is required for axonemal recruitment of CCDC39, disruption of which underlies a similar variant of PCD.