Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈如何做好群众工作

通过回顾党的历史上关于群众工作的一系列决策决定,指出领导干部要进一步提高对做好群众工作重要性的认识;对做好群众工作中领导干部的要求做出阐述。     

Genetic and photoperiodic control of an avian reproductive cycle

European blackcaps,Sylvia atricapilla, with one breeding season per year, have a single-peaked annual testes cycle. However, African conspecifics from the Cape Verde Islands with two breeding seasons per annum demonstrate a two-peaked cycle. Both population-specific cycles reflect differences in the respective endogenous circannual rhythms. Experimental hybridization of birds of the two populations resulted in an intermediate pattern of testes cycle, thus demonstrating that there are genetic components for some temporal aspects in an avian reproductive cycle. Another characteristic of the African birds, their extremely rapid juvenile development and early sexual maturity (at an age of 5–6 months) proved largely to be a photoperiodic (short-day) effect in birds hatched in autumn. The same effect could also be induced in European conspecifics exposed to correspondingly short day-lengths.     

HPM合成及其在苯乙烯阳离子聚合体系中作用

通过利用与金属多氧络合物的相互作用,合成了具有特殊结构与功能的金属多氧络合物催化剂。经过红外表征,说明新合成的催化剂具有典型的金属多氧络合物晶体结构,同时其活性质子也得到了很好的稳定化保护。经过在苯乙烯体系中的聚合实验,发现合成的新型催化剂在引发聚合的同时,也能很好地实现聚合反应的稳定化,便于聚合操作的进行。