Integrating time-series and end-use methods to forecast electricity sales

Two types of forecasting methods have been receiving increasing attention by electric utility forecasters. The first type, called end-use forecasting, is recognized as an approach which is well suited for forecasting during periods characterized by technological change. The method is straightforward. The stock levels of energy-consuming equipment are forecast, as well as the energy consumption characteristics of the equipment. The final forecast is the product of the stock and usage characteristics. This approach is well suited to forecasting long time periods when technological change, equipment depletion and replacement, and other structural changes are evident. For time periods of shorter duration, these factors are static and variations are more likely to result from shocks to the environment. The shocks influence the usage of the equipment. A second forecasting approach using time-series analysis has been demonstrated to be superior for these applications. This paper discusses the integration of the two methods into a unified system. The result is a time-series model whose parameter effects become dynamic in character. An example of the models being used at the Georgia Power Company is presented. It is demonstrated that a time-series model which incorporates end-use stock and usage information is superior—even in short-term forecasting situations—to a similar time-series model which excludes the information.     

State-space modelling of residential,commercial and peak demands

The potential use of state-space modelling is evaluated through comparison with the existing multivariate ARMA models currently in use at Georgia Power Company for forecasting its residential sales, commercial sales and peak demand.     

Ergonomic Evaluation on Taxi Drivers Compartment

Driving involves long hours of physical work within c onfined compartment. Taxi drivers usually work with prolonged working hours, add itional stress may likely be induced on particular body limbs. Occupational heal th may occur and working efficiency may potentially be affected resulting fr om fatigues, pains or diseases. These problems, however, could be remedied if mo re attention is paid on seating design, the workplace and driving postures adopt ed. Ergonomics design can provide better understanding...     

Free choice activates a decision circuit between frontal and parietal cortex

We often face alternatives that we are free to choose between. Planning movements to select an alternative involves several areas in frontal and parietal cortex that are anatomically connected into long-range circuits. These areas must coordinate their activity to select a common movement goal, but how neural circuits make decisions remains poorly understood. Here we simultaneously record from the dorsal premotor area (PMd) in frontal cortex and the parietal reach region (PRR) in parietal cortex to investigate neural circuit mechanisms for decision making. We find that correlations in spike and local field potential (LFP) activity between these areas are greater when monkeys are freely making choices than when they are following instructions. We propose that a decision circuit featuring a sub-population of cells in frontal and parietal cortex may exchange information to coordinate activity between these areas. Cells participating in this decision circuit may influence movement choices by providing a common bias to the selection of movement goals.     

Mutations in kelch-like 3 and cullin 3 cause hypertension and electrolyte abnormalities

Hypertension affects one billion people and is a principal reversible risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Pseudohypoaldosteronism type II (PHAII), a rare Mendelian syndrome featuring hypertension, hyperkalaemia and metabolic acidosis, has revealed previously unrecognized physiology orchestrating the balance between renal salt reabsorption and K(+) and H(+) excretion. Here we used exome sequencing to identify mutations in kelch-like 3 (KLHL3) or cullin 3 (CUL3) in PHAII patients from 41 unrelated families. KLHL3 mutations are either recessive or dominant, whereas CUL3 mutations are dominant and predominantly de novo. CUL3 and BTB-domain-containing kelch proteins such as KLHL3 are components of cullin-RING E3 ligase complexes that ubiquitinate substrates bound to kelch propeller domains. Dominant KLHL3 mutations are clustered in short segments within the kelch propeller and BTB domains implicated in substrate and cullin binding, respectively. Diverse CUL3 mutations all result in skipping of exon 9, producing an in-frame deletion. Because dominant KLHL3 and CUL3 mutations both phenocopy recessive loss-of-function KLHL3 mutations, they may abrogate ubiquitination of KLHL3 substrates. Disease features are reversed by thiazide diuretics, which inhibit the Na-Cl cotransporter in the distal nephron of the kidney; KLHL3 and CUL3 are expressed in this location, suggesting a mechanistic link between KLHL3 and CUL3 mutations, increased Na-Cl reabsorption, and disease pathogenesis. These findings demonstrate the utility of exome sequencing in disease gene identification despite the combined complexities of locus heterogeneity, mixed models of transmission and frequent de novo mutation, and establish a fundamental role for KLHL3 and CUL3 in blood pressure, K(+) and pH homeostasis.     

Melanomas acquire resistance to B-RAF(V600E) inhibition by RTK or N-RAS upregulation

Activating B-RAF(V600E) (also known as BRAF) kinase mutations occur in ～7% of human malignancies and ～60% of melanomas. Early clinical experience with a novel class I RAF-selective inhibitor, PLX4032, demonstrated an unprecedented 80% anti-tumour response rate among patients with B-RAF(V600E)-positive melanomas, but acquired drug resistance frequently develops after initial responses. Hypotheses for mechanisms of acquired resistance to B-RAF inhibition include secondary mutations in B-RAF(V600E), MAPK reactivation, and activation of alternative survival pathways. Here we show that acquired resistance to PLX4032 develops by mutually exclusive PDGFRβ (also known as PDGFRB) upregulation or N-RAS (also known as NRAS) mutations but not through secondary mutations in B-RAF(V600E). We used PLX4032-resistant sub-lines artificially derived from B-RAF(V600E)-positive melanoma cell lines and validated key findings in PLX4032-resistant tumours and tumour-matched, short-term cultures from clinical trial patients. Induction of PDGFRβ RNA, protein and tyrosine phosphorylation emerged as a dominant feature of acquired PLX4032 resistance in a subset of melanoma sub-lines, patient-derived biopsies and short-term cultures. PDGFRβ-upregulated tumour cells have low activated RAS levels and, when treated with PLX4032, do not reactivate the MAPK pathway significantly. In another subset, high levels of activated N-RAS resulting from mutations lead to significant MAPK pathway reactivation upon PLX4032 treatment. Knockdown of PDGFRβ or N-RAS reduced growth of the respective PLX4032-resistant subsets. Overexpression of PDGFRβ or N-RAS(Q61K) conferred PLX4032 resistance to PLX4032-sensitive parental cell lines. Importantly, MAPK reactivation predicts MEK inhibitor sensitivity. Thus, melanomas escape B-RAF(V600E) targeting not through secondary B-RAF(V600E) mutations but via receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK)-mediated activation of alternative survival pathway(s) or activated RAS-mediated reactivation of the MAPK pathway, suggesting additional therapeutic strategies.     

Primary structure of human T-cell receptor alpha-chain

The T-cell receptor has been studied intensely over the past 10 years in an effort to understand the molecular basis for major histocompatibility complex (MHC) restricted antigen recognition. The use of anti-receptor monoclonal antibodies to isolate and characterize the receptor from human and murine T-cell clones has shown that the protein consists of two disulphide-linked glycopeptides, alpha and beta, distinct from known immunoglobulin light and heavy chains. Like immunoglobulin light and heavy chains, however, both the alpha- and beta-chains are composed of variable and constant regions. Molecular cloning has revealed that the beta-chain is evolutionarily related to immunoglobulins, and is encoded in separate V (variable), D (diversity), J (joining) and C (constant) segments that are rearranged in T cells to produce a functional gene. We report here cDNA clones encoding the alpha-chain of the receptor of the human T-cell leukaemia line HPB-MLT. Using these cDNA probes, we find that expression of alpha-chain mRNA and rearrangement of an alpha-chain V-gene segment occur only in T cells. The protein sequence predicted by these cDNAs is homologous to T-cell receptor beta-chains and to immunoglobulin heavy and light chains, particularly in the V and J segments.