Are Analysts' Loss Functions Asymmetric?

Despite displaying a statistically significant optimism bias, analysts' earnings forecasts are an important input to investors’ valuation models. Understanding the possible reasons for any bias is important if information is to be extracted from earnings forecasts and used optimally by investors. Extant research into the shape of analysts' loss functions explains optimism bias as resulting from analysts minimizing the mean absolute forecast error under symmetric, linear loss functions. When the distribution of earnings outcomes is skewed, optimalforecasts can appear biased. In contrast, research into analysts' economic incentives suggests that positive and negative earnings forecast errors made by analysts are not penalized or rewarded symmetrically, suggesting that asymmetric loss functions are an appropriate characterization. To reconcile these findings, we exploit results from economic theory relating to the Linex loss function to discriminate between the symmetric linear loss and the asymmetric loss explanations of analyst forecast bias. Under asymmetric loss functions optimal forecasts will appear biased even if earnings outcomes are symmetric. Our empirical results support the asymmetric loss function explanation. Further analysis also reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across firm characteristics that capture systematic variation in the earnings forecast error distribution. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bee visitors of sweetvetch, Hedysarum boreale boreale (Leguminosae), and their pollen-collecting activities

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} The native bee fauna visiting and pollinating a population of sweetvetch in Grand Teton National Park was surveyed. The papilionaceous flowers were exploited by 37 bee species, most of which had long mouthparts. Most species collected pollen as well as nectar. Bees foraged most heavily in early afternoon when pollen was most abundant. However, there was no indication that bee species were competing for limited pollen resources: there was no difference among three time periods in percent sweetvetch pollen carried in the scopal pollen loads of bees nor was there any evidence that some species were displacing the foraging times of others. The advantages of developing a native species as a commercial pollinator of sweetvetch are discussed and several potential candidates are mentioned.     

Comparing strategies to fine-map the association of common SNPs at chromosome 9p21 with type 2 diabetes and myocardial infarction

Noncoding variants at human chromosome 9p21 near CDKN2A and CDKN2B are associated with type 2 diabetes, myocardial infarction, aneurysm, vertical cup disc ratio and at least five cancers. Here we compare approaches to more comprehensively assess genetic variation in the region. We carried out targeted sequencing at high coverage in 47 individuals and compared the results to pilot data from the 1000 Genomes Project. We imputed variants into type 2 diabetes and myocardial infarction cohorts directly from targeted sequencing, from a genotyped reference panel derived from sequencing and from 1000 Genomes Project low-coverage data. Polymorphisms with frequency >5% were captured well by all strategies. Imputation of intermediate-frequency polymorphisms required a higher density of tag SNPs in disease samples than is available on first-generation genome-wide association study (GWAS) arrays. Our association analyses identified more comprehensive sets of variants showing equivalent statistical association with type 2 diabetes or myocardial infarction, but did not identify stronger associations than the original GWAS signals.     

Identification of common variants influencing risk of the tauopathy progressive supranuclear palsy

Progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) is a movement disorder with prominent tau neuropathology. Brain diseases with abnormal tau deposits are called tauopathies, the most common of which is Alzheimer's disease. Environmental causes of tauopathies include repetitive head trauma associated with some sports. To identify common genetic variation contributing to risk for tauopathies, we carried out a genome-wide association study of 1,114 individuals with PSP (cases) and 3,247 controls (stage 1) followed by a second stage in which we genotyped 1,051 cases and 3,560 controls for the stage 1 SNPs that yielded P ≤ 10(-3). We found significant previously unidentified signals (P < 5 × 10(-8)) associated with PSP risk at STX6, EIF2AK3 and MOBP. We confirmed two independent variants in MAPT affecting risk for PSP, one of which influences MAPT brain expression. The genes implicated encode proteins for vesicle-membrane fusion at the Golgi-endosomal interface, for the endoplasmic reticulum unfolded protein response and for a myelin structural component.     

Exome sequencing in sporadic autism spectrum disorders identifies severe de novo mutations

Evidence for the etiology of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) has consistently pointed to a strong genetic component complicated by substantial locus heterogeneity. We sequenced the exomes of 20 individuals with sporadic ASD (cases) and their parents, reasoning that these families would be enriched for de novo mutations of major effect. We identified 21 de novo mutations, 11 of which were protein altering. Protein-altering mutations were significantly enriched for changes at highly conserved residues. We identified potentially causative de novo events in 4 out of 20 probands, particularly among more severely affected individuals, in FOXP1, GRIN2B, SCN1A and LAMC3. In the FOXP1 mutation carrier, we also observed a rare inherited CNTNAP2 missense variant, and we provide functional support for a multi-hit model for disease risk. Our results show that trio-based exome sequencing is a powerful approach for identifying new candidate genes for ASDs and suggest that de novo mutations may contribute substantially to the genetic etiology of ASDs.     

Resequencing of positional candidates identifies low frequency IL23R coding variants protecting against inflammatory bowel disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified dozens of risk loci for many complex disorders, including Crohn's disease. However, common disease-associated SNPs explain at most ～20% of the genetic variance for Crohn's disease. Several factors may account for this unexplained heritability, including rare risk variants not adequately tagged thus far in GWAS. That rare susceptibility variants indeed contribute to variation in multifactorial phenotypes has been demonstrated for colorectal cancer, plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, blood pressure, type 1 diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia and, in the case of Crohn's disease, for NOD2 (refs. 14,15). Here we describe the use of high-throughput resequencing of DNA pools to search for rare coding variants influencing susceptibility to Crohn's disease in 63 GWAS-identified positional candidate genes. We identify low frequency coding variants conferring protection against inflammatory bowel disease in IL23R, but we conclude that rare coding variants in positional candidates do not make a large contribution to inherited predisposition to Crohn's disease.     

Genome-wide association defines more than 30 distinct susceptibility loci for Crohn's disease

Several risk factors for Crohn's disease have been identified in recent genome-wide association studies. To advance gene discovery further, we combined data from three studies on Crohn's disease (a total of 3,230 cases and 4,829 controls) and carried out replication in 3,664 independent cases with a mixture of population-based and family-based controls. The results strongly confirm 11 previously reported loci and provide genome-wide significant evidence for 21 additional loci, including the regions containing STAT3, JAK2, ICOSLG, CDKAL1 and ITLN1. The expanded molecular understanding of the basis of this disease offers promise for informed therapeutic development.     

X-linked protocadherin 19 mutations cause female-limited epilepsy and cognitive impairment

Epilepsy and mental retardation limited to females (EFMR) is a disorder with an X-linked mode of inheritance and an unusual expression pattern. Disorders arising from mutations on the X chromosome are typically characterized by affected males and unaffected carrier females. In contrast, EFMR spares transmitting males and affects only carrier females. Aided by systematic resequencing of 737 X chromosome genes, we identified different protocadherin 19 (PCDH19) gene mutations in seven families with EFMR. Five mutations resulted in the introduction of a premature termination codon. Study of two of these demonstrated nonsense-mediated decay of PCDH19 mRNA. The two missense mutations were predicted to affect adhesiveness of PCDH19 through impaired calcium binding. PCDH19 is expressed in developing brains of human and mouse and is the first member of the cadherin superfamily to be directly implicated in epilepsy or mental retardation.