关于Gibbs算法的NHPP软件可信模型的Bayesian接近方法

研究了软件可信成长模型的bayesian推论和模型选择方法。如果用内在错误和错误之间的时间间隔来模化成长模型,在软件开发阶段,可以非常有效的利用其成长模型。本文在解决多重积分问题时利用Gibbs抽样方法来计算出算后分布。一般顺序统计量模型依赖具有扩散算前分布特性的软件。对一般顺序统计量模型依实行了bayesian总体参数的推断,还实行了有效的模型选择方法。模型的设定和判断标准可用于利用方差相乘和的适合度鉴定和趋势鉴定。为了取得相应的值例,本文在分析错误资料时利用了AllenP.NikoraandMichaelR.Lyu[13]提出的SYS2软件错误资料。     

‘Public’ Science: Hydrogen Balloons and Lavoisier's Decomposition of Water

The balloon mania between 1783 and 1785 put an extraordinary strain on the Paris Academy of Sciences, threatening its status as the highest tribunal of European science. Faced with repeated royal directives and public frenzy, the Academy manoeuvred carefully to steer the research toward the hydrogen balloon and thereby to maintain its scientific superiority. Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier seized this moment when the promise of ‘the empire of airs’ brought science to the centre of public attention to push his theoretical reform for chemistry. He utilized the established protocol of the Academy and the resources of the Republic of Letters to broadly publicize his first decomposition of water in April 1784. Once he attained the publicity and the balloon fever began to cool, he staged a much more elaborate experiment for the experts in February 1785. Although this second, large-scale experiment cost much expense and effort, Lavoisier never published a full account. The differential care given to the two experiments can only be understood in their divergent rhetorical contexts. The written accounts in 1784 addressed the court of public opinion, while the exclusive performance in 1785 aimed at the court of experts to inaugurate the collaborative phase of the Chemical Revolution.     

Mapping mammalian synaptic connectivity

Mapping mammalian synaptic connectivity has long been an important goal of neuroscientists since it is considered crucial for explaining human perception and behavior. Yet, despite enormous efforts, the overwhelming complexity of the neural circuitry and the lack of appropriate techniques to unravel it have limited the success of efforts to map connectivity. However, recent technological advances designed to overcome the limitations of conventional methods for connectivity mapping may bring about a turning point. Here, we address the promises and pitfalls of these new mapping technologies.     

Diversity of IL-17-producing T lymphocytes

Interleukin (IL)-17 is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that plays critical roles in host defense against extracellular bacteria and fungi and also in the pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases. While CD4+ TCRαβ+ T helper (Th) 17 cells are the best-described cellular source of IL-17, many innate-like T cells are in fact potent producers of IL-17. Given the increasing interest in therapeutic modulation of the IL-17 axis, it is crucial to better understand the cellular origins of IL-17 in various infection and diseases settings. While the diverse population of IL-17-producing T cells share many common characteristics, notable differences also exist. In this review, we discuss the heterogeneity of IL-17-producing T cell types focusing on their development, regulation, and function.     

Faithful after break-up: suppression of chromosomal translocations

Chromosome integrity in response to chemically or radiation-induced chromosome breaks and the perturbation of ongoing replication forks relies on multiple DNA repair mechanisms. However, repair of these lesions may lead to unwanted chromosome rearrangement if not properly executed or regulated. As these types of chromosomal alterations threaten the cell’s and the organism’s very own survival, multiple systems are developed to avoid or at least limit break-induced chromosomal rearrangements. In this review, we highlight cellular strategies for repressing DNA break-induced chromosomal translocations in multiple model systems including yeast, mouse, and human. These pathways select proper homologous templates or broken DNA ends for the faithful repair of DNA breaks to avoid undesirable chromosomal translocations.     

Forecasting Hourly Peak Call Volume for a Rural Electric Cooperative Call Center

This research forecasts peak call volume of a centralized after‐hours call center for rural electric cooperatives to help the call center determine staffing levels. A Gaussian copula is used to capture the dependence among non‐normal distributions. Using a centralized call center reduces costs by approximately 75% compared to having individual call centers at each cooperative. Adding cooperatives to the centralized call center is projected to further decrease costs per member. An out‐of‐sample forecasting exercise after the call center expanded validated the model's forecast that additional cooperatives could be added without a proportional increase in the peak number of calls. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.