Bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive model: new alternatives with applications to tourism forecasting

This paper proposes the use of the bias‐corrected bootstrap for interval forecasting of an autoregressive time series with an arbitrary number of deterministic components. We use the bias‐corrected bootstrap based on two alternative bias‐correction methods: the bootstrap and an analytic formula based on asymptotic expansion. We also propose a new stationarity‐correction method, based on stable spectral factorization, as an alternative to Kilian's method exclusively used in past studies. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare small‐sample properties of prediction intervals. The results show that the bias‐corrected bootstrap prediction intervals proposed in this paper exhibit desirable small‐sample properties. It is also found that the bootstrap bias‐corrected prediction intervals based on stable spectral factorization are tighter and more stable than those based on Kilian's stationarity‐correction. The proposed methods are applied to interval forecasting for the number of tourist arrivals in Hong Kong. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

s-单式环的交换性定理(英文)

本文将文献[3]的引理1推广到s-单式环上,并用迭代技术给出文献[4]的定理2一个简易的证明,将若干有1环的交换性定理推广到s-单式环上。     

添加剂对AN多变晶型影响研究

本文运用热分析的方法对四十余种无机、有机添加剂和几种表面活性剂及水分对硝酸铵(AN)晶型转变的影响进行了研究。结果表明这些添加剂对AN的影响应为多种因素的综合结果。     

Localization of the X inactivation centre on the human X chromosome in Xq13

X-chromosome inactivation results in the strictly cis-limited inactivation of many but not all genes on one of the two X chromosomes during early development in somatic cells of mammalian females. One feature of virtually all models of X inactivation is the existence of an X-inactivation centre (XIC) required in cis for inactivation to occur. This concept predicts that all structurally abnormal X chromosomes capable of being inactivated have in common a defineable region of the X chromosome. Here we report an analysis of several such rearranged human X chromosomes and define a minimal region of overlap. The results are consistent with models invoking a single XIC and provide a molecular foothold for cloning and analysing the XIC region. One of the markers that defines this region is the XIST gene, which is expressed specifically from inactive, but not active, X chromosomes. The localization of the XIST gene to the XIC region on the human X chromosome implicates XIST in some aspect of X inactivation.     

Fringe is a glycosyltransferase that modifies Notch

Notch receptors function in highly conserved intercellular signalling pathways that direct cell-fate decisions, proliferation and apoptosis in metazoans. Fringe proteins can positively and negatively modulate the ability of Notch ligands to activate the Notch receptor. Here we establish the biochemical mechanism of Fringe action. Drosophila and mammalian Fringe proteins possess a fucose-specific beta1,3 N-acetylglucosaminyltransferase activity that initiates elongation of O-linked fucose residues attached to epidermal growth factor-like sequence repeats of Notch. We obtained biological evidence that Fringe-dependent elongation of O-linked fucose on Notch modulates Notch signalling by using co-culture assays in mammalian cells and by expression of an enzymatically inactive Fringe mutant in Drosophila. The post-translational modification of Notch by Fringe represents a striking example of modulation of a signalling event by differential receptor glycosylation and identifies a mechanism that is likely to be relevant to other signalling pathways.     

Uptake of dissolved organic carbon and trace elements by zebra mussels

Zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) are widespread and abundant in major freshwater ecosystems in North America, even though the phytoplankton food resources in some of these systems seem to be too low to sustain them. Because phytoplankton biomass is greatly depleted in ecosystems with large D. polymorpha populations and bacteria do not seem to be an important food source for this species, exploitation of alternative carbon sources may explain the unexpected success of D. polymorpha in such environments. Here we examine the possibility that absorption of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from water could provide a nutritional supplement to zebra mussels. We find that mussels absorb 14C-labelled DOC produced by cultured diatoms with an efficiency of 0.23%; this indicates that DOC in natural waters could contribute up to 50% of the carbon demand of zebra mussels. We also find that zebra mussels absorb some dissolved metals that have been complexed by the DOM; although absorption of dissolved selenium was unaffected by DOC, absorption of dissolved cadmium, silver and mercury by the mussels increased 32-, 8.7- and 3.6-fold, respectively, in the presence of high-molecular-weight DOC.     

Cloned pigs produced by nuclear transfer from adult somatic cells

Since the first report of live mammals produced by nuclear transfer from a cultured differentiated cell population in 1995 (ref. 1), successful development has been obtained in sheep, cattle, mice and goats using a variety of somatic cell types as nuclear donors. The methodology used for embryo reconstruction in each of these species is essentially similar: diploid donor nuclei have been transplanted into enucleated MII oocytes that are activated on, or after transfer. In sheep and goat pre-activated oocytes have also proved successful as cytoplast recipients. The reconstructed embryos are then cultured and selected embryos transferred to surrogate recipients for development to term. In pigs, nuclear transfer has been significantly less successful; a single piglet was reported after transfer of a blastomere nucleus from a four-cell embryo to an enucleated oocyte; however, no live offspring were obtained in studies using somatic cells such as diploid or mitotic fetal fibroblasts as nuclear donors. The development of embryos reconstructed by nuclear transfer is dependent upon a range of factors. Here we investigate some of these factors and report the successful production of cloned piglets from a cultured adult somatic cell population using a new nuclear transfer procedure.     

The crystal structure of DNA mismatch repair protein MutS binding to a G x T mismatch

DNA mismatch repair ensures genomic integrity on DNA replication. Recognition of a DNA mismatch by a dimeric MutS protein initiates a cascade of reactions and results in repair of the newly synthesized strand; however, details of the molecular mechanism remain controversial. Here we present the crystal structure at 2.2 A of MutS from Escherichia coli bound to a G x T mismatch. The two MutS monomers have different conformations and form a heterodimer at the structural level. Only one monomer recognizes the mismatch specifically and has ADP bound. Mismatch recognition occurs by extensive minor groove interactions causing unusual base pairing and kinking of the DNA. Nonspecific major groove DNA-binding domains from both monomers embrace the DNA in a clamp-like structure. The interleaved nucleotide-binding sites are located far from the DNA. Mutations in human MutS alpha (MSH2/MSH6) that lead to hereditary predisposition for cancer, such as hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer, can be mapped to this crystal structure.     

The mouse Dreher gene Lmx1a controls formation of the roof plate in the vertebrate CNS

In the vertebrate central nervous system (CNS), a cascade of signals that originates in the ectoderm adjacent to the neural tube is propagated by the roof plate to dorsalize the neural tube. Here we report that the phenotype of the spontaneous neurological mutant mouse dreher (dr) results from a failure of the roof plate to develop. Dorsalization of the neural tube is consequently affected: dorsal interneurons in the spinal cord and granule neurons in the cerebellar cortex are lost, and the dorsal vertebral neural arches fail to form. Positional cloning of dreher indicates that the LIM homeodomain protein, Lmx1a, is affected in three different alleles of dreher. Lmx1a is expressed in the roof plate along the neuraxis during development of the CNS. Thus, Lmx1a is required for development of the roof plate and, in turn, for specification of dorsal cell fates in the CNS and developing vertebrae.