Epidemiological parameters of HIV transmission

Epidemiological data on the main determinants of the transmission potential of HIV-1 in specific at risk groups in slowly accumulating, but many uncertainties remain.     

Possible demographic consequences of AIDS in developing countries

Simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV that incorporate demographic and epidemiological processes to assess the potential impact of AIDS on human population growth and structure in developing countries suggest that AIDS is capable of changing population growth rates from positive to negative values over timescales of a few decades. The disease is predicted to have little if any impact on the dependency ratio of a population, defined as the number of children below age 15 years and elderly people over 64 years, divided by the number of adults between 15 to 64 years.     

Potential of community-wide chemotherapy or immunotherapy to control the spread of HIV-1

Whether zidovudine (3'-azido-3'-deoxythymidine, AZT) should be offered to symptomless individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1), in the hope of delaying or even preventing progression to AIDS, has been much debated. The discussion has focused on the efficacy of the drug in delaying progression to disease, the severity of its side-effects, and the likelihood of its prolonged and widespread use resulting in zidovudine-resistant strains of the virus. Little attention has been given to the degree to which treatment reduces the infectiousness of symptomless patients, and to the concomitant implications for the overall transmission rate of HIV-1 in the community. Here we use simple mathematical models to show that community treatment with antiviral drugs or immunotherapies that lengthen the incubation period of AIDS without significantly reducing the infectiousness of treated individuals, can increase the rate at which HIV-1 infection spreads (which is fairly obvious) and can even, under certain circumstances, increase the AIDS-related death rate in the community (which is less obvious).     

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Ambivalent effect of protein binding on computed distributions of metal ions complexed by ligands in blood plasma.

Although the absolute concentrations of metal complexes in blood plasma are controlled by protein binding, the percentage distribution of transition metal ions amongst low molecular weight ligands is not. Thus, computer simulations which omit protein equilibria can nevertheless afford reliable information about such metals in the biofluid.