Towards a taxonomy of forecast error measures a factor-comparative investigation of forecast error dimensions

This study explores the nature of information conveyed by 14 error measures drawn from the literature, using real-life forecasting data from 691 individual product items over six quarterly periods. Principal components analysis is used to derive factor solutions that are subsequently compared for two forecasting methods, a version of Holt's exponential smoothing, and the random walk model (Naive 1). The results reveal four underlying forecast error dimensions that are stable across the two factor solutions. The potentially confounding influence of sales volume on the derived error dimensions is also explored via correlation analysis.     

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection

When managers make revisions to sales forecasts initially generated by a rational quantitative model it is important that the particular forecasts selected for adjustment are those which would benefit most from the adjustment process (i.e. realize high errors). This study reports an empirical investigation on this issue, spanning six quarterly forecasting periods and incorporating forecasting data on over 850 products. The results show that the errors of the forecasts chosen for revision are, in general, higher than those which were not chosen. In addition, it is shown that managesrs tend to revise forecasts which are initially low, hence possibily introducing some degree of bias into the overall forecasts.     

Identity of the proliferating cell nuclear antigen and cyclin

Studies of growth regulation and cellular transformation will be assisted by the identification of proteins that are preferentially synthesized in dividing cells. The 'proliferating cell nuclear antigen' ( PCNA ), distinguished by its apparent association with cell division, is defined by reaction with an antibody found in the autoimmune disease systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This antibody reacts with proliferating cells including tumour cells but gives weak or undetectable immunofluorescence with resting cells of normal tissues. Peripheral blood lymphocytes are devoid of PCNA until activated by mitogen in vitro. In synchronized cultures its level and distribution fluctuate through the cell cycle, with a striking accumulation in the nucleolus late in the G1 phase and early in the S phase. Many of these properties are shared by ' cyclin '. This nuclear protein, identified by its position in a two-dimensional separation of cell proteins, is also transformation-sensitive and is preferentially synthesized in the S phase. We establish here that PCNA and cyclin are identical, and show that PCNA is an acidic nuclear protein of apparent molecular weight 35,000.     

Observation of interstellar lithium in the low-metallicity Small Magellanic Cloud

The primordial abundances of light elements produced in the standard theory of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) depend only on the cosmic ratio of baryons to photons, a quantity inferred from observations of the microwave background. The predicted primordial (7)Li abundance is four times that measured in the atmospheres of Galactic halo stars. This discrepancy could be caused by modification of surface lithium abundances during the stars' lifetimes or by physics beyond the Standard Model that affects early nucleosynthesis. The lithium abundance of low-metallicity gas provides an alternative constraint on the primordial abundance and cosmic evolution of lithium that is not susceptible to the in situ modifications that may affect stellar atmospheres. Here we report observations of interstellar (7)Li in the low-metallicity gas of the Small Magellanic Cloud, a nearby galaxy with a quarter the Sun's metallicity. The present-day (7)Li abundance of the Small Magellanic Cloud is nearly equal to the BBN predictions, severely constraining the amount of possible subsequent enrichment of the gas by stellar and cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis. Our measurements can be reconciled with standard BBN with an extremely fine-tuned depletion of stellar Li with metallicity. They are also consistent with non-standard BBN.     

Functional identity of proliferating cell nuclear antigen and a DNA polymerase-delta auxiliary protein

The mechanism of replication of the simian virus 40 (SV40) genome closely resembles that of cellular chromosomes, thereby providing an excellent model system for examining the enzymatic requirements for DNA replication. Only one viral gene product, the large tumour antigen (large-T antigen), is required for viral replication, so the majority of replication enzymes must be cellular. Indeed, a number of enzymatic activities associated with replication and the S phase of the cell cycle are induced upon SV40 infection. Cell-free extracts derived from human cells, when supplemented with immunopurified SV40 large-T antigen support efficient replication of plasmids that contain the SV40 origin of DNA replication. Using this system, a cellular protein of relative molecular mass 36,000 (Mr = 36K) that is required for the elongation stage of SV40 DNA replication in vitro has been purified and identified as a known cell-cycle regulated protein, alternatively called the proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) or cyclin. It was noticed that, in its physical characteristics, PCNA closely resembles a protein that regulates the activity of calf thymus DNA polymerase-delta. Here we show that PCNA and the polymerase-delta auxiliary protein have similar electrophoretic behaviour and are both recognized by anti-PCNA human autoantibodies. More importantly, both proteins are functionally equivalent; they stimulate SV40 DNA replication in vitro and increase the processivity of calf thymus DNA polymerase-delta. These results implicate a novel animal cell DNA polymerase, DNA polymerase-delta, in the elongation stage of replicative DNA synthesis in vitro.