Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov‐switching autoregressive models

Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibit successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime‐switching behaviour with an approach relying on Markov‐switching autoregressive (MSAR) models. An appropriate parameterization of the model coefficients is introduced, along with an adaptive estimation method allowing accommodation of long‐term variations in the process characteristics. The objective criterion to be recursively optimized is based on penalized maximum likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for one‐step‐ahead point forecasting of 10 min resolution time series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence and autoregressive models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ultrathin compound semiconductor on insulator layers for high-performance nanoscale transistors

Over the past several years, the inherent scaling limitations of silicon (Si) electron devices have fuelled the exploration of alternative semiconductors, with high carrier mobility, to further enhance device performance. In particular, compound semiconductors heterogeneously integrated on Si substrates have been actively studied: such devices combine the high mobility of III-V semiconductors and the well established, low-cost processing of Si technology. This integration, however, presents significant challenges. Conventionally, heteroepitaxial growth of complex multilayers on Si has been explored-but besides complexity, high defect densities and junction leakage currents present limitations in this approach. Motivated by this challenge, here we use an epitaxial transfer method for the integration of ultrathin layers of single-crystal InAs on Si/SiO(2) substrates. As a parallel with silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology, we use 'XOI' to represent our compound semiconductor-on-insulator platform. Through experiments and simulation, the electrical properties of InAs XOI transistors are explored, elucidating the critical role of quantum confinement in the transport properties of ultrathin XOI layers. Importantly, a high-quality InAs/dielectric interface is obtained by the use of a novel thermally grown interfacial InAsO(x) layer (~1?nm thick). The fabricated field-effect transistors exhibit a peak transconductance of ~1.6?mS?μm(-1) at a drain-source voltage of 0.5?V, with an on/off current ratio of greater than 10,000.     

Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Power Generation by Stochastic Differential Equation Models

The increasing penetration of wind power has resulted in larger shares of volatile sources of supply in power systems worldwide. In order to operate such systems efficiently, methods for reliable probabilistic forecasts of future wind power production are essential. It is well known that the conditional density of wind power production is highly dependent on the level of predicted wind power and prediction horizon. This paper describes a new approach for wind power forecasting based on logistic‐type stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The SDE formulation allows us to calculate both state‐dependent conditional uncertainties as well as correlation structures. Model estimation is performed by maximizing the likelihood of a multidimensional random vector while accounting for the correlation structure defined by the SDE formulation. We use non‐parametric modelling to explore conditional correlation structures, and skewness of the predictive distributions as a function of explanatory variables. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occurrence of the musk ox, Symbos cavifrons, from southeastern Idaho and comments on the genus Bootherium

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} A set of ovibovine horn cores collected from Pleistocene sediments in southeastern Idaho provides additional evidence for sexual dimorphism in the helmeted musk ox, Symbos cavifrons. Specimens previously assigned to Bootherium sargenti are placed in synonomy with Symbos cavifrons as sexual dimorphs (females). Bootherium bombifrons is a valid taxon and is probably not closely related to Symbos.     

Deregulation of a Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent kinase leads to spontaneous nodule development

Induced development of a new plant organ in response to rhizobia is the most prominent manifestation of legume root-nodule symbiosis with nitrogen-fixing bacteria. Here we show that the complex root-nodule organogenic programme can be genetically deregulated to trigger de novo nodule formation in the absence of rhizobia or exogenous rhizobial signals. In an ethylmethane sulphonate-induced snf1 (spontaneous nodule formation) mutant of Lotus japonicus, a single amino-acid replacement in a Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase (CCaMK) is sufficient to turn fully differentiated root cortical cells into meristematic founder cells of root nodule primordia. These spontaneous nodules are genuine nodules with an ontogeny similar to that of rhizobial-induced root nodules, corroborating previous physiological studies. Using two receptor-deficient genetic backgrounds we provide evidence for a developmentally integrated spontaneous nodulation process that is independent of lipochitin-oligosaccharide signal perception and oscillations in Ca2+ second messenger levels. Our results reveal a key regulatory position of CCaMK upstream of all components required for cell-cycle activation, and a phenotypically divergent series of mutant alleles demonstrates positive and negative regulation of the process.     

Trapped antihydrogen

Antimatter was first predicted in 1931, by Dirac. Work with high-energy antiparticles is now commonplace, and anti-electrons are used regularly in the medical technique of positron emission tomography scanning. Antihydrogen, the bound state of an antiproton and a positron, has been produced at low energies at CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research) since 2002. Antihydrogen is of interest for use in a precision test of nature's fundamental symmetries. The charge conjugation/parity/time reversal (CPT) theorem, a crucial part of the foundation of the standard model of elementary particles and interactions, demands that hydrogen and antihydrogen have the same spectrum. Given the current experimental precision of measurements on the hydrogen atom (about two parts in 10(14) for the frequency of the 1s-to-2s transition), subjecting antihydrogen to rigorous spectroscopic examination would constitute a compelling, model-independent test of CPT. Antihydrogen could also be used to study the gravitational behaviour of antimatter. However, so far experiments have produced antihydrogen that is not confined, precluding detailed study of its structure. Here we demonstrate trapping of antihydrogen atoms. From the interaction of about 10(7) antiprotons and 7?×?10(8) positrons, we observed 38 annihilation events consistent with the controlled release of trapped antihydrogen from our magnetic trap; the measured background is 1.4?±?1.4 events. This result opens the door to precision measurements on anti-atoms, which can soon be subjected to the same techniques as developed for hydrogen.     

Indication of drier periods on Mars from the chemistry and mineralogy of atmospheric dust

The ubiquitous atmospheric dust on Mars is well mixed by periodic global dust storms, and such dust carries information about the environment in which it once formed and hence about the history of water on Mars. The Mars Exploration Rovers have permanent magnets to collect atmospheric dust for investigation by instruments on the rovers. Here we report results from M?ssbauer spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence of dust particles captured from the martian atmosphere by the magnets. The dust on the magnets contains magnetite and olivine; this indicates a basaltic origin of the dust and shows that magnetite, not maghemite, is the mineral mainly responsible for the magnetic properties of the dust. Furthermore, the dust on the magnets contains some ferric oxides, probably including nanocrystalline phases, so some alteration or oxidation of the basaltic dust seems to have occurred. The presence of olivine indicates that liquid water did not play a dominant role in the processes that formed the atmospheric dust.     

Production and detection of cold antihydrogen atoms

A theoretical underpinning of the standard model of fundamental particles and interactions is CPT invariance, which requires that the laws of physics be invariant under the combined discrete operations of charge conjugation, parity and time reversal. Antimatter, the existence of which was predicted by Dirac, can be used to test the CPT theorem-experimental investigations involving comparisons of particles with antiparticles are numerous. Cold atoms and anti-atoms, such as hydrogen and antihydrogen, could form the basis of a new precise test, as CPT invariance implies that they must have the same spectrum. Observations of antihydrogen in small quantities and at high energies have been reported at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) and at Fermilab, but these experiments were not suited to precision comparison measurements. Here we demonstrate the production of antihydrogen atoms at very low energy by mixing trapped antiprotons and positrons in a cryogenic environment. The neutral anti-atoms have been detected directly when they escape the trap and annihilate, producing a characteristic signature in an imaging particle detector.