银杏叶部病害的发生与防治研究

调查了鄂北地区银杏集中产区的安陆、随州等市的银杏苗圃、叶用林和果用林的银杏叶部病害的种类和危害状况.结果表明,危害银杏叶片的病害主要有黑斑病、炭疽病、叶斑病和轮纹病等4种.果用林发病较重,叶用林次之,苗圃较轻.针对病害的发生原因,提出了相应的防治措施.     

Changes in the distribution and status of sage-grouse in Utah

Sage-grouse ( Centrocercus spp.) were abundant in all of Utah's 29 counties at the time of European settlement wherever sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) occurred. Greater Sage-Grouse ( C. urophasianus ) inhabited areas north and west of the Colorado River, and Gunnison Sage-Grouse ( C. minimus ) occupied suitable habitat south and east of the Colorado River. The largest Greater Sage-Grouse populations in Utah are currently restricted to suitable habitats in Box Elder, Garfield, Rich, Uintah, and Wayne Counties. A remnant breeding population of Gunnison Sage-Grouse occurs in eastern San Juan County. We stratified Greater Sage-Grouse populations (1971-2000) by counties where the 1996 to 2000 moving average for estimated spring breeding populations was > 500 (GT500) or < 500 (LT500). Males per lek declined in all populations from 1971 to 2000; however, there were consistently more males observed on GT500 than on LT500 leks. Juveniles per adult hen (including yearling hens) Greater Sage-Grouse in the 1973-2000 fall harvest in Box Elder, Rich, and Wayne Counties did not differ from 2.25, a ratio suggesting sustainable or increasing sage-grouse populations. Declines are attributed to loss, fragmentation, and degradation of sagebrush habitat. Sage-grouse conservation ultimately depends on management and enhancement of remaining sagebrush rangelands in Utah.     

Nighttime aboveground movements by prairie dogs on colonies inhabited by black-footed ferrets

We describe observations of black-tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys ludovicianus ) emerging aboveground at night, apparently in response to wild-born and captive-born black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ) in South Dakota and New Mexico, respectively. We also discuss other similar observations accumulated on black-tailed prairie dog colonies as well as observations of white-tailed prairie dogs ( Cynomys leucurus ) making nighttime movements, apparently in response to pre-reintroduction ferrets in Wyoming. Our observations suggest that, in addition to documented daytime defenses against ferrets, prairie dogs reduce vulnerability to predation by ferrets by using evasive movements at night.     

Local migration promotes competitive restraint in a host-pathogen 'tragedy of the commons'

Fragmented populations possess an intriguing duplicity: even if subpopulations are reliably extinction-prone, asynchrony in local extinctions and recolonizations makes global persistence possible. Migration is a double-edged sword in such cases: too little migration prevents recolonization of extinct patches, whereas too much synchronizes subpopulations, raising the likelihood of global extinction. Both edges of this proverbial sword have been explored by manipulating the rate of migration within experimental populations. However, few experiments have examined how the evolutionary ecology of fragmented populations depends on the pattern of migration. Here, we show that the migration pattern affects both coexistence and evolution within a community of bacterial hosts (Escherichia coli) and viral pathogens (T4 coliphage) distributed across a large network of subpopulations. In particular, different patterns of migration select for distinct pathogen strategies, which we term 'rapacious' and 'prudent'. These strategies define a 'tragedy of the commons': rapacious phage displace prudent variants for shared host resources, but prudent phage are more productive when alone. We find that prudent phage dominate when migration is spatially restricted, while rapacious phage evolve under unrestricted migration. Thus, migration pattern alone can determine whether a de novo tragedy of the commons is resolved in favour of restraint.     

Space geodesy: subsidence and flooding in New Orleans

It has long been recognized that New Orleans is subsiding and is therefore susceptible to catastrophic flooding. Here we present a new subsidence map for the city, generated from space-based synthetic-aperture radar measurements, which reveals that parts of New Orleans underwent rapid subsidence in the three years before Hurricane Katrina struck in August 2005. One such area is next to the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MRGO) canal, where levees failed during the peak storm surge: the map indicates that this weakness could be explained by subsidence of a metre or more since their construction.     

Evaluating forecasts: a look at aggregate bias and accuracy measures

In this paper an investigation is made of the properties and use of two aggregate measures of forecast bias and accuracy. These are metrics used in business to calculate aggregate forecasting performance for a family (group) of products. We find that the aggregate measures are not particularly informative if some of the one‐step‐ahead forecasts are biased. This is likely to be the case in practice if frequently employed forecasting methods are used to generate a large number of individual forecasts. In the paper, examples are constructed to illustrate some potential problems in the use of the metrics. We propose a simple graphical display of forecast bias and accuracy to supplement the information yielded by the accuracy measures. This support includes relevant boxplots of measures of individual forecasting success. This tool is simple but helpful as the graphic display has the potential to indicate forecast deterioration that can be masked by one or both of the aggregate metrics. The procedures are illustrated with data representing sales of food items. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.