Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chromosomal localization of a unique gene by non-autoradiographic in situ hybridization

During the past few years, several methods have been developed for the detection of specific nucleic acid sequences by in situ hybridization using non-radioactive labels such as fluorochromes, cytochemically detectable enzymes and electron-dense markers. These methods are preferable to autoradiography in terms of speed of performance and topological resolution. Their limited sensitivity, however, has so far restricted their use to the detection of repeated sequences. Here we report single gene detection with a procedure using 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF)-modified probes, immunoperoxidase cytochemistry and reflection-contrast microscopy. We confirmed the autoradiographic data on the localization of the human thyroglobulin (Tg) gene to the distal end of the long arm of chromosome 8. A mixture of cosmid cHT2-derived subclones of the 3' part of the Tg gene, 22.3 kilobase pairs (kbp) in total, was used as a hybridization probe. This procedure can be used to map other unique sequences, if genomic clones are available from which clones with an appropriate amount of inserts can be isolated.     

Karyotypes of seven species of bats from Thailand (Chiroptera,Mammalia)

Summary Karyotypes ofMyotis siligorensis, Myotis mystacinus, Pipistrellus pulveratus, Tylonycteris robustula, Miniopterus schreibersi fuliginosus, Hipposideros fulvus andAselliscus stoliczkanus from Thailand are investigated.Acknowledgment. The authors are very grateful to Dr N. Ratanawarabhan, Mrs S. Sittilert, P. Noonpakdee and S. Kuanchalern of Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technological Research for their valuable advice and assistance during our field survey in Thailand.     

Acquired immunity and epidemiology of Schistosoma haematobium

Human immune responses to schistosome infection have been characterized in detail. But there has been controversy over the relative importance of ecological factors (variation in exposure to infection) and immunological factors (acquired immunity) in determining the relationships between levels of infection and age typically found in areas where infection is endemic. Independent effects of exposure and age on the rates of reinfection with Schistosoma haematobium after chemotherapy have been demonstrated in the Gambia and Zimbabwe. This age effect could be the result of acquired immunity to infection. Indeed, allowing for variation in exposure and age, low rates of reinfection in the Gambia are correlated with high amounts of specific IgE antibodies--human IgE can kill S. mansoni schistosomulae in vitro. Further, animals can acquire immunologically mediated resistance to S. mansoni infection, although nonimmunological factors could also be involved. Acquisition of this immunity seems to be related to the cumulative effects of repeated infection and provides only partial protection. These characteristics are consistent with immuno-epidemiological data for both S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections of humans. We have now analysed age-prevalence data for human infection with S. haematobium, and find patterns of variation that are indeed consistent with the epidemiological effects of acquired immunity predicted by mathematical models.