A Pluto-like radius and a high albedo for the dwarf planet Eris from an occultation

The dwarf planet Eris is a trans-Neptunian object with an orbital eccentricity of 0.44, an inclination of 44 degrees and a surface composition very similar to that of Pluto. It resides at present at 95.7 astronomical units (1?AU is the Earth-Sun distance) from Earth, near its aphelion and more than three times farther than Pluto. Owing to this great distance, measuring its size or detecting a putative atmosphere is difficult. Here we report the observation of a multi-chord stellar occultation by Eris on 6 November 2010 UT. The event is consistent with a spherical shape for Eris, with radius 1,163?±?6?kilometres, density 2.52?±?0.05 grams per cm(3) and a high visible geometric albedo, Pv = 0.96(+0.09)(-0.04). No nitrogen, argon or methane atmospheres are detected with surface pressure larger than ～1?nanobar, about 10,000 times more tenuous than Pluto's present atmosphere. As Pluto's radius is estimated to be between 1,150 and 1,200 kilometres, Eris appears as a Pluto twin, with a bright surface possibly caused by a collapsed atmosphere, owing to its cold environment. We anticipate that this atmosphere may periodically sublimate as Eris approaches its perihelion, at 37.8 astronomical units from the Sun.     

Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation

Atmospheric aerosols exert an important influence on climate through their effects on stratiform cloud albedo and lifetime and the invigoration of convective storms. Model calculations suggest that almost half of the global cloud condensation nuclei in the atmospheric boundary layer may originate from the nucleation of aerosols from trace condensable vapours, although the sensitivity of the number of cloud condensation nuclei to changes of nucleation rate may be small. Despite extensive research, fundamental questions remain about the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles and the mechanisms responsible, including the roles of galactic cosmic rays and other chemical species such as ammonia. Here we present the first results from the CLOUD experiment at CERN. We find that atmospherically relevant ammonia mixing ratios of 100 parts per trillion by volume, or less, increase the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles more than 100-1,000-fold. Time-resolved molecular measurements reveal that nucleation proceeds by a base-stabilization mechanism involving the stepwise accretion of ammonia molecules. Ions increase the nucleation rate by an additional factor of between two and more than ten at ground-level galactic-cosmic-ray intensities, provided that the nucleation rate lies below the limiting ion-pair production rate. We find that ion-induced binary nucleation of H(2)SO(4)-H(2)O can occur in the mid-troposphere but is negligible in the boundary layer. However, even with the large enhancements in rate due to ammonia and ions, atmospheric concentrations of ammonia and sulphuric acid are insufficient to account for observed boundary-layer nucleation.     

Randomized unit root processes for modelling and forecasting financial time series: Theory and applications

This paper considers the problems of statistically analysing the levels of financial time series rather than their differences, which are often equivalent to returns and which are traditionally analysed in econometric modelling. This focus on differences is a consequence of the inherent nonstationarity of the levels, and hence analysing the latter requires introducing an alternative framework for modelling nonstationary behaviour. We do this by considering randomized unit root processes, arguing that these can have a natural interpretation in the financial context. The paper thus develops methods for testing for randomized unit roots and for modelling such processes. It then applies these techniques to various financial time series, so as to ascertain their potential usefulness, particularly for forecasting.     

Forecasting and analyzing economic activity with coincident and leading indexes: The case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, non-farm employment, and the unemployment rate.     

Forecasting and nowcasting emerging market GDP growth rates: The role of latent global economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic data surprise factors

In this paper, we assess the predictive content of latent economic policy uncertainty and data surprise factors for forecasting and nowcasting gross domestic product (GDP) using factor-type econometric models. Our analysis focuses on five emerging market economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey; and we carry out a forecasting horse race in which predictions from various different models are compared. These models may (or may not) contain latent uncertainty and surprise factors constructed using both local and global economic datasets. The set of models that we examine in our experiments includes both simple benchmark linear econometric models as well as dynamic factor models that are estimated using a variety of frequentist and Bayesian data shrinkage methods based on the least absolute shrinkage operator (LASSO). We find that the inclusion of our new uncertainty and surprise factors leads to superior predictions of GDP growth, particularly when these latent factors are constructed using Bayesian variants of the LASSO. Overall, our findings point to the importance of spillover effects from global uncertainty and data surprises, when predicting GDP growth in emerging market economies.     

2(5H)-呋喃酮的水相Diels-Alder反应

研究了2(5H)-呋喃酮、5-羟基-2(5H)-呋喃酮与环戊二烯发生Diels-Alder反应,产物用FT-IR、1HNMR、MS进行了表征。该反应在水相中进行时,反应时间为0.5 h,比在有机相反应的时间大大缩短。     

页岩结构完整性评价的热-流体-变形耦合理论与方法

该文应用连续介质力学理论建立了与蒸汽注入过程相关的热-流-变形耦合问题的基本数学模型;应用全隐式顺序Galerkin有限元数值解方案,对注蒸汽井的热-流体-变形耦合过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,由于低渗透页岩地层流体高温膨胀导致的超高孔隙压力,有可能产生拉张应力,严重时会导致地层破裂。