Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transgenesis in fish

Gene transfer into fish embryo is being performed in several species (trout, salmon, carps, tilapia, medaka, goldfish, zebrafish, loach, catfish, etc.). In most cases, pronuclei are not visible and microinjection must be done into the cytoplasm of early embryos. Several million copies of the gene are generally injected. In medaka, transgenesis was attempted by injection of the foreign gene into the nucleus of oocyte. Several reports indicate that the injected DNA was rapidly replicated in the early phase of embryo development, regardless of the origin and the sequence of the foreign DNA. The survival of the injected embryos was reasonably good and a large number reached maturity. The proportion of transgenic animals ranged from 1 to 50% or more, according to species and to experimentators. The reasons for this discrepancy have not been elucidated. In all species, the transgenic animals were mosaic. The copy number of the foreign DNA was different in the various tissues of an animal and a proportion lower than 50% of F1 offsprings received the gene from their parents. This suggests that the foreign DNA was integrated into the fish genome at the two cells stage or later. An examination of the integrated DNA in different cell types of an animal revealed that integration occurred mainly during early development. The transgene was found essentially unrearranged in the fish genome of the founders and offsprings. The transgenes were therefore stably transmitted to progeny in a Mendelian fashion. Southern blot analysis revealed the presence of possible junction fragments and also of minor bands which may result from a rearrangement of the injected DNA. In all species, the integrated DNA appeared mainly as random end-to-end concatemers. In adult trout blood cells, a small proportion of the foreign DNA was maintained in the form of non-integrated concatemers, as judged by the existence of end fragments. The transgenes were generally only poorly expressed. The majority of the injected gene constructs contained essentially mammalian or higher vertebrates sequences. The comparison of the expression efficiency of these constructs in transfected fish and mammalian cells indicates that some of the mammalian DNA sequences are most efficiently understood by the fish cell machinery. Chloramphenicol acetyl transferase gene under the control of promoters from Rous sarcoma virus, and human cytomegalovirus, was expressed in several tissues of transgenic fish. Chicken delta-crystallin gene was expressed in several tissues of transgenic fish.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Chromosomal localization of a unique gene by non-autoradiographic in situ hybridization

During the past few years, several methods have been developed for the detection of specific nucleic acid sequences by in situ hybridization using non-radioactive labels such as fluorochromes, cytochemically detectable enzymes and electron-dense markers. These methods are preferable to autoradiography in terms of speed of performance and topological resolution. Their limited sensitivity, however, has so far restricted their use to the detection of repeated sequences. Here we report single gene detection with a procedure using 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF)-modified probes, immunoperoxidase cytochemistry and reflection-contrast microscopy. We confirmed the autoradiographic data on the localization of the human thyroglobulin (Tg) gene to the distal end of the long arm of chromosome 8. A mixture of cosmid cHT2-derived subclones of the 3' part of the Tg gene, 22.3 kilobase pairs (kbp) in total, was used as a hybridization probe. This procedure can be used to map other unique sequences, if genomic clones are available from which clones with an appropriate amount of inserts can be isolated.     

Karyotypes of seven species of bats from Thailand (Chiroptera,Mammalia)

Summary Karyotypes ofMyotis siligorensis, Myotis mystacinus, Pipistrellus pulveratus, Tylonycteris robustula, Miniopterus schreibersi fuliginosus, Hipposideros fulvus andAselliscus stoliczkanus from Thailand are investigated.Acknowledgment. The authors are very grateful to Dr N. Ratanawarabhan, Mrs S. Sittilert, P. Noonpakdee and S. Kuanchalern of Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technological Research for their valuable advice and assistance during our field survey in Thailand.     

Acquired immunity and epidemiology of Schistosoma haematobium

Human immune responses to schistosome infection have been characterized in detail. But there has been controversy over the relative importance of ecological factors (variation in exposure to infection) and immunological factors (acquired immunity) in determining the relationships between levels of infection and age typically found in areas where infection is endemic. Independent effects of exposure and age on the rates of reinfection with Schistosoma haematobium after chemotherapy have been demonstrated in the Gambia and Zimbabwe. This age effect could be the result of acquired immunity to infection. Indeed, allowing for variation in exposure and age, low rates of reinfection in the Gambia are correlated with high amounts of specific IgE antibodies--human IgE can kill S. mansoni schistosomulae in vitro. Further, animals can acquire immunologically mediated resistance to S. mansoni infection, although nonimmunological factors could also be involved. Acquisition of this immunity seems to be related to the cumulative effects of repeated infection and provides only partial protection. These characteristics are consistent with immuno-epidemiological data for both S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections of humans. We have now analysed age-prevalence data for human infection with S. haematobium, and find patterns of variation that are indeed consistent with the epidemiological effects of acquired immunity predicted by mathematical models.     

Mutation of the matrix metalloproteinase 2 gene (MMP2) causes a multicentric osteolysis and arthritis syndrome.

The inherited osteolyses or 'vanishing bone' syndromes are a group of rare disorders of unknown etiology characterized by destruction and resorption of affected bones. The multicentric osteolyses are notable for interphalangeal joint erosions that mimic severe juvenile rheumatoid arthritis (OMIMs 166300, 259600, 259610 and 277950). We recently described an autosomal recessive form of multicentric osteolysis with carpal and tarsal resorption, crippling arthritic changes, marked osteoporosis, palmar and plantar subcutaneous nodules and distinctive facies in a number of consanguineous Saudi Arabian families. We localized the disease gene to 16q12-21 by using members of these families for a genome-wide search for homozygous-by-descent microsatellite markers. Haplotype analysis narrowed the critical region to a 1.2-cM region that spans the gene encoding MMP-2 (gelatinase A, collagenase type IV; (ref. 3). We detected no MMP2 enzymatic activity in the serum or fibroblasts of affected family members. We identified two family-specific homoallelic MMP2 mutations: R101H and Y244X. The nonsense mutation effects a deletion of the substrate-binding and catalytic sites and the fibronectin type II-like and hemopexin/TIMP2 binding domains. Based on molecular modeling, the missense mutation disrupts hydrogen bond formation within the highly conserved prodomain adjacent to the catalytic zinc ion.     

分子间作用力对制备含有机废弃之水泥浆体影响研究

研究以水泥处理固体有机物时，有机物对水泥水化的影响。以膜流模式说明水份在水泥浆体内传输的现象。水膜存在半干之水泥浆体，其厚度小于100nm，膜流由离分压所驱动，而离分压来自分子间作用力。膜拟结果发现，水泥浆体内局部位置可用以进行水化之水量为Q=-Aslv／6vπ。当有机物添加在水泥浆体内时，会影响Hamaker常数，Aslv因此可能使膜流不稳定或完全抑制膜流，因而使水泥浆体内局部缺水，影响水化进行，造成成品强度降低，影响品质。