A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

This paper is concerned primarily with the evaluation and comparison of objective and subjective weather forecasts. Operational forecasts of three weather elements are considered: (1) probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence, (2) categorical (i.e. non-probabilistic) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures and (3) categorical forecasts of cloud amount. The objective forecasts are prepared by numerical-statistical procedures, whereas the subjective forecasts are based on the judgements of individual forecasters. In formulating the latter, the forecasters consult information from a variety of sources, including the objective forecasts themselves. The precipitation probability forecasts are found to be both reliable and skilful, and evaluation of the temperature/cloud amount forecasts reveals that they are quite accurate/skilful. Comparison of the objective and subjective forecasts of precipitation occurrence indicates that the latter are generally more skilful than the former for shorter lead times (e.g. 12–24 hours), whereas the two types of forecasts are of approximately equal skill for longer lead times (e.g. 36–48 hours). Similar results are obtained for the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Objective cloud amount forecasts are more skilful than subjective cloud amount forecasts for all lead times. Examination of trends in performance over the last decade reveals that both types of forecasts for all three elements increased in skill (or accuracy) over the period, with improvements in objective forecasts equalling or exceeding improvements in subjective forecasts. The role and impact of the objective forecasts in the subjective weather forecasting process are discussed in some detail. The need to conduct controlled experiments and other studies of this process, with particular reference to the assimilation of information from different sources, is emphasized. Important characteristics of the forecasting system in meteorology are identified, and they are used to describe similarities and differences between weather forecasting and forecasting in other fields. Acquisition of some of these characteristics may be beneficial to other forecasting systems.     

Dissociation of obesity,hypercholesterolemia and diabetes from atherosclerosis in ob/ob mice

Summary Genetically obese, diabetic and hypercholesterolemic C57BL/6J-ob/ob mice were placed on Purina Laboratory Chow containing 2% cholesterol for up to 4 months. They developed higher plasma cholesterol levels and accumulated an increased quantity of cholesterol in the liver but failed to develop atherosclerotic lesions in the aorta as would be expected in an obese, diabetic and hypercholesterolemic human adult.Acknowledgments. We wish to thank Mr. Willis M. Overton for his excellent technical assistance.     

Promotion of Hras-induced squamous carcinomas by a polymorphic variant of the Patched gene in FVB mice

Mice of the C57BL/6 strain are resistant to the development of skin squamous carcinomas (SCCs) induced by an activated Ras oncogene, whereas FVB/N mice are highly susceptible. The genetic basis of this difference in phenotype is unknown. Here we show that susceptibility to SCC is under the control of a carboxy-terminal polymorphism in the mouse Ptch gene. F1 hybrids between C57BL/6 and FVB/N strains ((B6FVB)F1) are resistant to Ras-induced SCCs, but resistance can be overcome either by elimination of the C57BL/6 Ptch allele (Ptch(B6)) or by overexpression of the FVB/N Ptch allele (Ptch(FVB)) in the epidermis of K5Hras-transgenic (B6FVB)F1 hybrid mice. The human Patched (PTCH) gene is a classical tumour suppressor gene for basal cell carcinomas and medulloblastomas, the loss of which causes increased signalling through the Sonic Hedgehog (SHH) pathway. SCCs that develop in PtchB6+/- mice do not lose the wild-type Ptch gene or show evidence of increased SHH signalling. Although Ptch(FVB) overexpression can promote SCC formation, continued expression is not required for tumour maintenance, suggesting a role at an early stage of tumour cell lineage commitment. The Ptch polymorphism affects Hras-induced apoptosis, and binding to Tid1, the mouse homologue of the Drosophila l(2)tid tumour suppressor gene. We propose that Ptch occupies a critical niche in determining basal or squamous cell lineage, and that both tumour types can arise from the same target cell depending on carcinogen exposure and host genetic background.     

Tycho brahe in china: the Jesuit mission to Peking and the iconography of European instrument-making processes

In the late 1660s, Ferdinand Verbiest, a Flemish Jesuit missionary in Peking, was instructed to re-equip the Imperial Observatory. The new instruments which he caused to be built were modelled neither upon contemporary European prototypes, nor those of traditional Chinese astronomy, but on the pieces in Tycho Brahe's Mechanica, of eighty years before. The Chinese instruments were lavishly illustrated, moreover, in 105 woodcuts that contained detailed representations of their processes of construction. It is argued that these illustrations not only give us valuable insights into what the technical Jesuits did in Peking, but show how sixteenth- and seventeenth-century European craftsmen constructed their instruments, for while the location was Oriental, the technology was Western. They can also give important insights into how Tycho's prototypes had been built, and provide us with useful information regarding European instrument-making technology.     

A variant of the gene encoding leukotriene A4 hydrolase confers ethnicity-specific risk of myocardial infarction

Variants of the gene ALOX5AP (also known as FLAP) encoding arachidonate 5-lipoxygenase activating protein are known to be associated with risk of myocardial infarction. Here we show that a haplotype (HapK) spanning the LTA4H gene encoding leukotriene A4 hydrolase, a protein in the same biochemical pathway as ALOX5AP, confers modest risk of myocardial infarction in an Icelandic cohort. Measurements of leukotriene B4 (LTB4) production suggest that this risk is mediated through upregulation of the leukotriene pathway. Three cohorts from the United States also show that HapK confers a modest relative risk (1.16) in European Americans, but it confers a threefold larger risk in African Americans. About 27% of the European American controls carried at least one copy of HapK, as compared with only 6% of African American controls. Our analyses indicate that HapK is very rare in Africa and that its occurrence in African Americans is due to European admixture. Interactions with other genetic or environmental risk factors that are more common in African Americans are likely to account for the greater relative risk conferred by HapK in this group.     

Admixture mapping for hypertension loci with genome-scan markers

Identification of genetic variants that contribute to risk of hypertension is challenging. As a complement to linkage and candidate gene association studies, we carried out admixture mapping using genome-scan microsatellite markers among the African American participants in the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Family Blood Pressure Program. This population was assumed to have experienced recent admixture from ancestral groups originating in Africa and Europe. We used a set of unrelated individuals from Nigeria to represent the African ancestral population and used the European Americans in the Family Blood Pressure Program to provide estimates of allele frequencies for the European ancestors. We genotyped a common set of 269 microsatellite markers in the three groups at the same laboratory. The distribution of marker location-specific African ancestry, based on multipoint analysis, was shifted upward in hypertensive cases versus normotensive controls, consistent with linkage to genes conferring susceptibility. This shift was largely due to a small number of loci, including five adjacent markers on chromosome 6q and two on chromosome 21q. These results suggest that chromosome 6q24 and 21q21 may contain genes influencing risk of hypertension in African Americans.