Quantile forecasting for credit risk management using possibly misspecified hidden Markov models

Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on misspecification in the dynamics and dimension of the HMM. We consider both discrete‐ and continuous‐state HMMs. The differences are substantial. Underestimating the number of discrete states has an economically significant impact on forecast quality. Generally speaking, discrete models underestimate the high‐quantile default rate forecasts. Continuous‐state HMMs, however, vastly overestimate high quantiles if the true HMM has a discrete state space. In the reverse setting the biases are much smaller, though still substantial in economic terms. We illustrate the empirical differences using US default data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between cheatgrass coverage and the relative abundance of snakes on Antelope Island, Utah

Cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) is an invasive annual known to negatively impact many shrub-dependent organisms; however, relatively little research has examined how it affects snake communities. Bromus tectorum is abundant at Antelope Island State Park, Davis County, Utah, and could be a possible threat to snake populations. Study sites representing different B. tectorum coverage percentages were established to measure relative abundance of snakes. Snakes were captured from June to September 2005 primarily by using funnel traps attached to drift-fence arrays. Linear regression revealed a negative relationship between B. tectorum coverage (%) and the relative abundance of the Great Basin gopher snake ( Pituophis catenifer deserticola ) and the western racer ( Coluber mormon ). These results (1) suggest that B. tectorum invasions result in reduced snake abundance in shrubsteppe habitat on Antelope Island and (2) add to our understanding of the relationships between B. tectorum and native fauna.     

Earth-like sand fluxes on Mars

Strong and sustained winds on Mars have been considered rare, on the basis of surface meteorology measurements and global circulation models, raising the question of whether the abundant dunes and evidence for wind erosion seen on the planet are a current process. Recent studies showed sand activity, but could not determine whether entire dunes were moving--implying large sand fluxes--or whether more localized and surficial changes had occurred. Here we present measurements of the migration rate of sand ripples and dune lee fronts at the Nili Patera dune field. We show that the dunes are near steady state, with their entire volumes composed of mobile sand. The dunes have unexpectedly high sand fluxes, similar, for example, to those in Victoria Valley, Antarctica, implying that rates of landscape modification on Mars and Earth are similar.     

Rauwolfia alkaloids XXXV. potent,fast-acting sedatives derived from methyl reserpate

Zusammenfassung Durch Umsetzung des Methyl-Reserpates (Ic) mit Diazomethan in Gegenwart von Fluoborsäure wird 18-O-Methylreserpsäure-methylester (Id) gewonnen. Reaktion des 18-O-p-Brombenzolsulfonylreserpsäure-methylesters (Ie) mit Methanol und Triäthylamin führt dagegen zum isomeren 18-epi-Methyläther (IIa). Diese Produkte, und besonders ihre wasserlöslichen Hydrochloride, besitzen ausgeprägte sedative Eigenschaften mit schnellem Wirkungseintritt; sie sind aber nicht hypotensiv wirksam.     

The gene encoding proline dehydrogenase modulates sensorimotor gating in mice

Hemizygous cryptic deletions of the q11 band of human chromosome 22 have been associated with a number of psychiatric and behavioural phenotypes, including schizophrenia. Here we report the isolation and characterization of PRODH, a human homologue of Drosophila melanogaster sluggish-A (slgA), which encodes proline dehydrogenase responsible for the behavioural phenotype of the slgA mutant. PRODH is localized at chromosome 22q11 in a region deleted in some psychiatric patients. We also isolated the mouse homologue of slgA (Prodh), identified a mutation in this gene in the Pro/Re hyperprolinaemic mouse strain and found that these mice have a deficit in sensorimotor gating accompanied by regional neurochemical alterations in the brain. Sensorimotor gating is a neural filtering process that allows attention to be focused on a given stimulus, and is affected in patients with neuropsychiatric disorders. Furthermore, several lines of evidence suggest that proline may serve as a modulator of synaptic transmission in the mammalian brain. Our observations, in conjunction with the chromosomal location of PRODH, suggest a potential involvement of this gene in the 22q11-associated psychiatric and behavioural phenotypes.     

Melanopsin and rod-cone photoreceptive systems account for all major accessory visual functions in mice

In the mammalian retina, besides the conventional rod-cone system, a melanopsin-associated photoreceptive system exists that conveys photic information for accessory visual functions such as pupillary light reflex and circadian photo-entrainment. On ablation of the melanopsin gene, retinal ganglion cells that normally express melanopsin are no longer intrinsically photosensitive. Furthermore, pupil reflex, light-induced phase delays of the circadian clock and period lengthening of the circadian rhythm in constant light are all partially impaired. Here, we investigated whether additional photoreceptive systems participate in these responses. Using mice lacking rods and cones, we measured the action spectrum for phase-shifting the circadian rhythm of locomotor behaviour. This spectrum matches that for the pupillary light reflex in mice of the same genotype, and that for the intrinsic photosensitivity of the melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells. We have also generated mice lacking melanopsin coupled with disabled rod and cone phototransduction mechanisms. These animals have an intact retina but fail to show any significant pupil reflex, to entrain to light/dark cycles, and to show any masking response to light. Thus, the rod-cone and melanopsin systems together seem to provide all of the photic input for these accessory visual functions.