Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Complex reorganization and predominant non-homologous repair following chromosomal breakage in karyotypically balanced germline rearrangements and transgenic integration

We defined the genetic landscape of balanced chromosomal rearrangements at nucleotide resolution by sequencing 141 breakpoints from cytogenetically interpreted translocations and inversions. We confirm that the recently described phenomenon of 'chromothripsis' (massive chromosomal shattering and reorganization) is not unique to cancer cells but also occurs in the germline, where it can resolve to a relatively balanced state with frequent inversions. We detected a high incidence of complex rearrangements (19.2%) and substantially less reliance on microhomology (31%) than previously observed in benign copy-number variants (CNVs). We compared these results to experimentally generated DNA breakage-repair by sequencing seven transgenic animals, revealing extensive rearrangement of the transgene and host genome with similar complexity to human germline alterations. Inversion was the most common rearrangement, suggesting that a combined mechanism involving template switching and non-homologous repair mediates the formation of balanced complex rearrangements that are viable, stably replicated and transmitted unaltered to subsequent generations.     

Polycomb-mediated methylation on Lys27 of histone H3 pre-marks genes for de novo methylation in cancer

Many genes associated with CpG islands undergo de novo methylation in cancer. Studies have suggested that the pattern of this modification may be partially determined by an instructive mechanism that recognizes specifically marked regions of the genome. Using chromatin immunoprecipitation analysis, here we show that genes methylated in cancer cells are specifically packaged with nucleosomes containing histone H3 trimethylated on Lys27. This chromatin mark is established on these unmethylated CpG island genes early in development and then maintained in differentiated cell types by the presence of an EZH2-containing Polycomb complex. In cancer cells, as opposed to normal cells, the presence of this complex brings about the recruitment of DNA methyl transferases, leading to de novo methylation. These results suggest that tumor-specific targeting of de novo methylation is pre-programmed by an established epigenetic system that normally has a role in marking embryonic genes for repression.     

Estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) gene amplification is frequent in breast cancer

Using an Affymetrix 10K SNP array to screen for gene copy number changes in breast cancer, we detected a single-gene amplification of the ESR1 gene, which encodes estrogen receptor alpha, at 6q25. A subsequent tissue microarray analysis of more than 2,000 clinical breast cancer samples showed ESR1 amplification in 20.6% of breast cancers. Ninety-nine percent of tumors with ESR1 amplification showed estrogen receptor protein overexpression, compared with 66.6% cancers without ESR1 amplification (P < 0.0001). In 175 women who had received adjuvant tamoxifen monotherapy, survival was significantly longer for women with cancer with ESR1 amplification than for women with estrogen receptor-expressing cancers without ESR1 amplification (P = 0.023). Notably, we also found ESR1 amplification in benign and precancerous breast diseases, suggesting that ESR1 amplification may be a common mechanism in proliferative breast disease and a very early genetic alteration in a large subset of breast cancers.     

A genome-wide association study for celiac disease identifies risk variants in the region harboring IL2 and IL21

We tested 310,605 SNPs for association in 778 individuals with celiac disease and 1,422 controls. Outside the HLA region, the most significant finding (rs13119723; P = 2.0 x 10(-7)) was in the KIAA1109-TENR-IL2-IL21 linkage disequilibrium block. We independently confirmed association in two further collections (strongest association at rs6822844, 24 kb 5' of IL21; meta-analysis P = 1.3 x 10(-14), odds ratio = 0.63), suggesting that genetic variation in this region predisposes to celiac disease.     

Loss of ACTN3 gene function alters mouse muscle metabolism and shows evidence of positive selection in humans

More than a billion humans worldwide are predicted to be completely deficient in the fast skeletal muscle fiber protein alpha-actinin-3 owing to homozygosity for a premature stop codon polymorphism, R577X, in the ACTN3 gene. The R577X polymorphism is associated with elite athlete status and human muscle performance, suggesting that alpha-actinin-3 deficiency influences the function of fast muscle fibers. Here we show that loss of alpha-actinin-3 expression in a knockout mouse model results in a shift in muscle metabolism toward the more efficient aerobic pathway and an increase in intrinsic endurance performance. In addition, we demonstrate that the genomic region surrounding the 577X null allele shows low levels of genetic variation and recombination in individuals of European and East Asian descent, consistent with strong, recent positive selection. We propose that the 577X allele has been positively selected in some human populations owing to its effect on skeletal muscle metabolism.     

Triple Task Method: Systemic, Reflective Action Research

This brief article introduces a new methodology for systemic action research—Triple Task (TT)—and sets out its rationale and initial progress in becoming an embedded method for group working. Arising from the authors previous work with soft systems approaches, the Imagine method for sustainable development assessment and action research in a variety of global locations, TT provides a means for groups to engage together in purposive work and, at the same time, for facilitators to understand how the dynamic of the group influences the groups output. TT is based on an ambitious concept and at the time of writing the results of TT applied in the context of an EU Framework 7 funded project are in their early stages but importantly, significant insights are already arising including the answers to some puzzling questions:

• Do purposeful groups always produce the most insightful outcomes?
• Do conflictual groups produce incoherent results?
• What makes a ‘good’ group?

     

The complement system in age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a chronic and progressive degenerative disease of the retina, which culminates in blindness and affects mainly the elderly population. AMD pathogenesis and pathophysiology are incredibly complex due to the structural and cellular complexity of the retina, and the variety of risk factors and molecular mechanisms that contribute to disease onset and progression. AMD is driven by a combination of genetic predisposition, natural ageing changes and lifestyle factors, such as smoking or nutritional intake. The mechanism by which these risk factors interact and converge towards AMD are not fully understood and therefore drug discovery is challenging, where no therapeutic attempt has been fully effective thus far. Genetic and molecular studies have identified the complement system as an important player in AMD. Indeed, many of the genetic risk variants cluster in genes of the alternative pathway of the complement system and complement activation products are elevated in AMD patients. Nevertheless, attempts in treating AMD via complement regulators have not yet been successful, suggesting a level of complexity that could not be predicted only from a genetic point of view. In this review, we will explore the role of complement system in AMD development and in the main molecular and cellular features of AMD, including complement activation itself, inflammation, ECM stability, energy metabolism and oxidative stress.

     

Prion protein cleavage fragments regulate adult neural stem cell quiescence through redox modulation of mitochondrial fission and SOD2 expression

Neurogenesis continues in the post-developmental brain throughout life. The ability to stimulate the production of new neurones requires both quiescent and actively proliferating pools of neural stem cells (NSCs). Actively proliferating NSCs ensure that neurogenic demand can be met, whilst the quiescent pool makes certain NSC reserves do not become depleted. The processes preserving the NSC quiescent pool are only just beginning to be defined. Herein, we identify a switch between NSC proliferation and quiescence through changing intracellular redox signalling. We show that N-terminal post-translational cleavage products of the prion protein (PrP) induce a quiescent state, halting NSC cellular growth, migration, and neurite outgrowth. Quiescence is initiated by the PrP cleavage products through reducing intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species. First, inhibition of redox signalling results in increased mitochondrial fission, which rapidly signals quiescence. Thereafter, quiescence is maintained through downstream increases in the expression and activity of superoxide dismutase-2 that reduces mitochondrial superoxide. We further observe that PrP is predominantly cleaved in quiescent NSCs indicating a homeostatic role for this cascade. Our findings provide new insight into the regulation of NSC quiescence, which potentially could influence brain health throughout adult life.     

Rediscovery of Disepyris semiruber (Kieffer) (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae) in Southern Africa,with first description of the male

Holepyris semiruber Kieffer is redescribed and illustrated based on freshly collected specimens. Holepyris semiruber var. striatipleura Kieffer is considered a colour variant of this species and therefore a junior synonym of H. semiruber syn. nov. This species is transferred to Disepyris, D. semiruber (Kieffer) comb. nov., based on the possession of a short 2r-rs&Rs vein in the fore wing and presence of long flat spine-shaped setae on the outer (posterior) surface of the protarsi. The male is described for the first time from new specimens collected in South Africa. This species is recorded for the first time from Namibia and Zimbabwe. All photographs are available on www.waspweb.org.