Empirical Bayesian Density Forecasting in Iowa and Shrinkage for the Monte Carlo Era

The track record of a 20‐year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better‐performing ‘priors’ similar to that conducted three decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman and Sims (Econometric Reviews, 1984). Comparisons of the point and density forecasts produced under the flat prior are made to those produced by the traditional (mixed estimation) ‘Bayesian VAR’ methods of Doan, Litterman and Sims, as well as to fully Bayesian ‘Minnesota Prior’ forecasts. The actual record and, to a somewhat lesser extent, the record of the alternative procedures studied in pseudo‐real‐time forecasting experiments, share a characteristic: subsequently realized revenues are in the lower tails of the predicted distributions ‘too often’. An alternative empirically based prior is found by working directly on the probability distribution for the vector autoregression parameters—the goal being to discover a better‐performing entropically tilted prior that minimizes out‐of‐sample mean squared error subject to a Kullback–Leibler divergence constraint that the new prior not differ ‘too much’ from the original. We also study the closely related topic of robust prediction appropriate for situations of ambiguity. Robust ‘priors’ are competitive in out‐of‐sample forecasting; despite the freedom afforded the entropically tilted prior, it does not perform better than the simple alternatives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Large-scale association analysis identifies 13 new susceptibility loci for coronary artery disease

We performed a meta-analysis of 14 genome-wide association studies of coronary artery disease (CAD) comprising 22,233 individuals with CAD (cases) and 64,762 controls of European descent followed by genotyping of top association signals in 56,682 additional individuals. This analysis identified 13 loci newly associated with CAD at P < 5 × 10?? and confirmed the association of 10 of 12 previously reported CAD loci. The 13 new loci showed risk allele frequencies ranging from 0.13 to 0.91 and were associated with a 6% to 17% increase in the risk of CAD per allele. Notably, only three of the new loci showed significant association with traditional CAD risk factors and the majority lie in gene regions not previously implicated in the pathogenesis of CAD. Finally, five of the new CAD risk loci appear to have pleiotropic effects, showing strong association with various other human diseases or traits.     

Multiple newly identified loci associated with prostate cancer susceptibility

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer affecting males in developed countries. It shows consistent evidence of familial aggregation, but the causes of this aggregation are mostly unknown. To identify common alleles associated with prostate cancer risk, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using blood DNA samples from 1,854 individuals with clinically detected prostate cancer diagnosed at 相似文献   

Skint1, the prototype of a newly identified immunoglobulin superfamily gene cluster, positively selects epidermal gammadelta T cells

B cells, alphabeta T cells and gammadelta T cells are conserved lymphocyte subtypes encoding their antigen receptors from somatically rearranged genes. alphabeta T cells undergo positive selection in the thymus by engagement of their T cell receptors (TCRs) with self-peptides presented by major histocompatibility complex molecules. The molecules that select gammadelta T cells are unknown. Vgamma5+Vdelta1+ cells comprise 90% of mouse epidermal gammadelta T cells. By mapping and genetic complementation using a strain showing loss of Vgamma5+Vdelta1+ cells due to a failure of thymic selection, we show that this defect is caused by mutation in Skint1, a newly identified gene expressed in thymus and skin that encodes a protein with immunoglobulin-like and transmembrane domains. Skint1 is the prototypic member of a rapidly evolving family of at least 11 genes in mouse, with greatest similarity to the butyrophilin genes. These findings define a new family of proteins mediating key epithelial-immune interactions.     

Ultraconservation identifies a small subset of extremely constrained developmental enhancers

Extended perfect human-rodent sequence identity of at least 200 base pairs (ultraconservation) is potentially indicative of evolutionary or functional uniqueness. We used a transgenic mouse assay to compare the embryonic enhancer activity of 231 noncoding ultraconserved human genome regions with that of 206 extremely conserved regions lacking ultraconservation. Developmental enhancers were equally prevalent in both populations, suggesting instead that ultraconservation identifies a small, functionally indistinct subset of similarly constrained cis-regulatory elements.     

Animal deception and the content of signals

In cases of animal mimicry, the receiver of the signal learns the truth that he is either dealing with the real thing or with a mimic. Thus, despite being a prototypical example of animal deception, mimicry does not seem to qualify as deception on the traditional definition, since the receiver is not actually misled. We offer a new account of propositional content in sender-receiver games that explains how the receiver is misled (and deceived) by mimicry. We show that previous accounts of deception, and of propositional content, give incorrect results about whether certain signals are deceptive.     

Breakpoints in the human T-cell antigen receptor alpha-chain locus in two T-cell leukaemia patients with chromosomal translocations

Specific chromosomal translocations have been observed in several human and animal tumours and are believed to be important in tumorigenesis. In many of these translocations the breakpoints lie near cellular homologues of transforming genes, suggesting that tumour development is partly due to the activation of these genes. The best-characterized example of such a translocation occurs in mouse plasmacytoma and human B-cell lymphoma, where c-myc, the cellular homologue of the viral oncogene myc, is brought into close proximity with either the light- or heavy-chain genes of the immunoglobulin loci, resulting in a change in the regulation of the myc gene. T-cell malignancies also have characteristic chromosomal abnormalities, many of which seem to involve the 14q11-14q13 region. This region has recently been found to contain the alpha-chain genes of the human T-cell antigen receptor. Here we determine more precisely the chromosome breakpoints in two patients whose leukaemic T cells contain reciprocal translocations between 11p13 and 14q13. Segregation analysis of somatic cell hybrids demonstrates that in both patients the breakpoints occur between the variable (V) and constant (C) region genes of the T-cell receptor alpha-chain locus, resulting in the translocation of the C-region gene from chromosome 14 to chromosome 11. As the 11p13 locus has been implicated in the development of Wilms' tumour, it is possible that either the Wilms' tumour gene or a yet unidentified gene in this region is involved in tumorigenesis and is altered as a result of its translocation into the T-cell receptor alpha-chain locus.     

Renin-like effects of NGF evaluated using renin-angiotensin antagonists

Intracranial injection of angiotensin II (AII) or activation of the cerebral isorenin-angiotensin system with intracranial renin causes an immediate thirst and a delayed sodium appetite in the rat. Nerve growth factor (NGF), a polypeptide trophic factor for peripheral sympathetic and sensory neurones, has also been reported to be a potent stimulus to thirst and sodium appetite when injected into the brain of the rat. Lewis et al. drew attention to the marked similarity between the effects of 2.5S NGF and renin on thirst and sodium appetite and suggested that the NGF responses were mediated by the cerebral isorenin-angiotensin system. We report here that NGF-induced thirst and sodium appetite, as well as increased blood pressure and increase ornithine decarboxylase activity in the brain and liver, depend on the formation of AII (see also ref. 6).