Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PBO单丝断裂微观结构分析

对PBO-AS单丝实施拉伸，通过观察拉伸断裂后的单丝形态，分析单丝断裂强力同单丝微观结构的关系．通过显微镜观察发现，PBO断裂后的单丝微观结构发生变化．提出单丝本身结构和原纤化可能是导致这些结果的主要原因．     

混凝土超声-回弹综合测强方法

利用超声一回弹综合法对混凝土的损伤进行了初步研究.由于单一的回弹法或超声法在理论与应用上的局限性,从而造成采用这两种单一的方法在应用上的缺陷,而超声一回弹综合法则弥补了上述两种方法的各自不足,也因而提高了检测精度.     

Transgenesis in fish

Gene transfer into fish embryo is being performed in several species (trout, salmon, carps, tilapia, medaka, goldfish, zebrafish, loach, catfish, etc.). In most cases, pronuclei are not visible and microinjection must be done into the cytoplasm of early embryos. Several million copies of the gene are generally injected. In medaka, transgenesis was attempted by injection of the foreign gene into the nucleus of oocyte. Several reports indicate that the injected DNA was rapidly replicated in the early phase of embryo development, regardless of the origin and the sequence of the foreign DNA. The survival of the injected embryos was reasonably good and a large number reached maturity. The proportion of transgenic animals ranged from 1 to 50% or more, according to species and to experimentators. The reasons for this discrepancy have not been elucidated. In all species, the transgenic animals were mosaic. The copy number of the foreign DNA was different in the various tissues of an animal and a proportion lower than 50% of F1 offsprings received the gene from their parents. This suggests that the foreign DNA was integrated into the fish genome at the two cells stage or later. An examination of the integrated DNA in different cell types of an animal revealed that integration occurred mainly during early development. The transgene was found essentially unrearranged in the fish genome of the founders and offsprings. The transgenes were therefore stably transmitted to progeny in a Mendelian fashion. Southern blot analysis revealed the presence of possible junction fragments and also of minor bands which may result from a rearrangement of the injected DNA. In all species, the integrated DNA appeared mainly as random end-to-end concatemers. In adult trout blood cells, a small proportion of the foreign DNA was maintained in the form of non-integrated concatemers, as judged by the existence of end fragments. The transgenes were generally only poorly expressed. The majority of the injected gene constructs contained essentially mammalian or higher vertebrates sequences. The comparison of the expression efficiency of these constructs in transfected fish and mammalian cells indicates that some of the mammalian DNA sequences are most efficiently understood by the fish cell machinery. Chloramphenicol acetyl transferase gene under the control of promoters from Rous sarcoma virus, and human cytomegalovirus, was expressed in several tissues of transgenic fish. Chicken delta-crystallin gene was expressed in several tissues of transgenic fish.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Chromosomal localization of a unique gene by non-autoradiographic in situ hybridization

During the past few years, several methods have been developed for the detection of specific nucleic acid sequences by in situ hybridization using non-radioactive labels such as fluorochromes, cytochemically detectable enzymes and electron-dense markers. These methods are preferable to autoradiography in terms of speed of performance and topological resolution. Their limited sensitivity, however, has so far restricted their use to the detection of repeated sequences. Here we report single gene detection with a procedure using 2-acetylaminofluorene (AAF)-modified probes, immunoperoxidase cytochemistry and reflection-contrast microscopy. We confirmed the autoradiographic data on the localization of the human thyroglobulin (Tg) gene to the distal end of the long arm of chromosome 8. A mixture of cosmid cHT2-derived subclones of the 3' part of the Tg gene, 22.3 kilobase pairs (kbp) in total, was used as a hybridization probe. This procedure can be used to map other unique sequences, if genomic clones are available from which clones with an appropriate amount of inserts can be isolated.     

Karyotypes of seven species of bats from Thailand (Chiroptera,Mammalia)

Summary Karyotypes ofMyotis siligorensis, Myotis mystacinus, Pipistrellus pulveratus, Tylonycteris robustula, Miniopterus schreibersi fuliginosus, Hipposideros fulvus andAselliscus stoliczkanus from Thailand are investigated.Acknowledgment. The authors are very grateful to Dr N. Ratanawarabhan, Mrs S. Sittilert, P. Noonpakdee and S. Kuanchalern of Thailand Institute of Scientific and Technological Research for their valuable advice and assistance during our field survey in Thailand.     

用正交法优化钻井液的配方

简述了正交法在钻井液配方优化中的原理和方法,并证明了采用正交法进行钻井液处理剂的配方优选时,不仅能考虑多种因素、找出各因素对指标的影响,而且可充分考虑到各因素之间的交互作用,从而优选配置出最佳的钻井液。此方法简单、可靠,可带来较好的经济效益。