Analysis of many short time sequences: Forecast improvements achieved by shrinkage

Credibility models in actuarial science deal with multiple short time series where each series represents claim amounts of different insurance groups. Commonly used credibility models imply shrinkage of group-specific estimates towards their average. In this paper we model the claim size yu in group i and at time t as the sum of three independent components: y_it = μ_r + δ_i + ?_it. The first component, μt = μ_t?1 + m_t, represents time-varying levels that are common to all groups. The second component, δ_i, represents random group offsets that are the same in all periods, and the third component represents independent measurement errors. In this paper we show how to obtain forecasts from this model and we discuss the nature of the forecasts, with particular emphasis on shrinkage. We also assess the forecast improvements that can be expected from such a model. Finally, we discuss an extension of the above model which also allows the group offsets to change over time. We assume that the offsets for different groups follow independent random walks.     

Forces between clustered stereocilia minimize friction in the ear on a subnanometre scale

The detection of sound begins when energy derived from an acoustic stimulus deflects the hair bundles on top of hair cells. As hair bundles move, the viscous friction between stereocilia and the surrounding liquid poses a fundamental physical challenge to the ear's high sensitivity and sharp frequency selectivity. Part of the solution to this problem lies in the active process that uses energy for frequency-selective sound amplification. Here we demonstrate that a complementary part of the solution involves the fluid-structure interaction between the liquid within the hair bundle and the stereocilia. Using force measurement on a dynamically scaled model, finite-element analysis, analytical estimation of hydrodynamic forces, stochastic simulation and high-resolution interferometric measurement of hair bundles, we characterize the origin and magnitude of the forces between individual stereocilia during small hair-bundle deflections. We find that the close apposition of stereocilia effectively immobilizes the liquid between them, which reduces the drag and suppresses the relative squeezing but not the sliding mode of stereociliary motion. The obliquely oriented tip links couple the mechanotransduction channels to this least dissipative coherent mode, whereas the elastic horizontal top connectors that stabilize the structure further reduce the drag. As measured from the distortion products associated with channel gating at physiological stimulation amplitudes of tens of nanometres, the balance of viscous and elastic forces in a hair bundle permits a relative mode of motion between adjacent stereocilia that encompasses only a fraction of a nanometre. A combination of high-resolution experiments and detailed numerical modelling of fluid-structure interactions reveals the physical principles behind the basic structural features of hair bundles and shows quantitatively how these organelles are adapted to the needs of sensitive mechanotransduction.     

Eocene lizard from Germany reveals amphisbaenian origins

Amphisbaenia is a speciose clade of fossorial lizards characterized by a snake-like body and a strongly reinforced skull adapted for head-first burrowing. The evolutionary origins of amphisbaenians are controversial, with molecular data uniting them with lacertids, a clade of Old World terrestrial lizards, whereas morphology supports a grouping with snakes and other limbless squamates. Reports of fossil stem amphisbaenians have been falsified, and no fossils have previously tested these competing phylogenetic hypotheses or shed light on ancestral amphisbaenian ecology. Here we report the discovery of a new lacertid-like lizard from the Eocene Messel locality of Germany that provides the first morphological evidence for lacertid-amphisbaenian monophyly on the basis of a reinforced, akinetic skull roof and braincase, supporting the view that body elongation and limblessness in amphisbaenians and snakes evolved independently. Morphometric analysis of body shape and ecology in squamates indicates that the postcranial anatomy of the new taxon is most consistent with opportunistically burrowing habits, which in combination with cranial reinforcement indicates that head-first burrowing evolved before body elongation and may have been a crucial first step in the evolution of amphisbaenian fossoriality.     

Hydrogen sulphide release to surface waters at the Precambrian/Cambrian boundary

Animal-like multicellular fossils appeared towards the end of the Precambrian, followed by a rapid increase in the abundance and diversity of fossils during the Early Cambrian period, an event also known as the 'Cambrian explosion'. Changes in the environmental conditions at the Precambrian/Cambrian transition (about 542 Myr ago) have been suggested as a possible explanation for this event, but are still a matter of debate. Here we report molybdenum isotope signatures of black shales from two stratigraphically correlated sample sets with a depositional age of around 542 Myr. We find a transient molybdenum isotope signal immediately after the Precambrian/Cambrian transition. Using a box model of the oceanic molybdenum cycle, we find that intense upwelling of hydrogen sulphide-rich deep ocean water best explains the observed Early Cambrian molybdenum isotope signal. Our findings suggest that the Early Cambrian animal radiation may have been triggered by a major change in ocean circulation, terminating a long period during which the Proterozoic ocean was stratified, with sulphidic deep water.     

Multiplex amplification of the mammoth mitochondrial genome and the evolution of Elephantidae

In studying the genomes of extinct species, two principal limitations are typically the small quantities of endogenous ancient DNA and its degraded condition, even though products of up to 1,600 base pairs (bp) have been amplified in rare cases. Using small overlapping polymerase chain reaction products, longer stretches of sequences or even whole mitochondrial genomes can be reconstructed, but this approach is limited by the number of amplifications that can be performed from rare samples. Thus, even from well-studied Pleistocene species such as mammoths, ground sloths and cave bears, no DNA sequences of more than about 1,000 bp have been reconstructed. Here we report the complete mitochondrial genome sequence of the Pleistocene woolly mammoth Mammuthus primigenius. We used about 200 mg of bone and a new approach that allows the simultaneous retrieval of multiple sequences from small amounts of degraded DNA. Our phylogenetic analyses show that the mammoth was more closely related to the Asian than to the African elephant. However, the divergence of mammoth, African and Asian elephants occurred over a short time, corresponding to only about 7% of the total length of the phylogenetic tree for the three evolutionary lineages.     

Soma-germline interactions coordinate homeostasis and growth in the Drosophila gonad

The ability of organs such as the liver or the lymphoid system to maintain their original size or regain it after injury is well documented. However, little is known about how these organs sense that equilibrium is breached, and how they cease changing when homeostasis is reached. Similarly, it remains unclear how, during normal development, different cell types within an organ coordinate their growth. Here we show that during gonad development in the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster the proliferation of primordial germ cells (PGCs) and survival of the somatic intermingled cells (ICs) that contact them are coordinated by means of a feedback mechanism composed of a positive signal and a negative signal. PGCs express the EGF receptor (EGFR) ligand Spitz, which is required for IC survival. In turn, ICs inhibit PGC proliferation. Thus, homeostasis and coordination of growth between soma and germ line in the larval ovary is achieved by using a sensor of PGC numbers (EGFR-mediated survival of ICs) coupled to a correction mechanism inhibiting PGC proliferation. This feedback loop ensures that sufficient numbers of PGCs exist to fill all the stem-cell niches that form at the end of larval development. We propose that similar feedback mechanisms might be generally used for coordinated growth, regeneration and homeostasis.     

Homodimer formation of retinoid X receptor induced by 9-cis retinoic acid.

Retinoid response pathways are mediated by two classes of receptors, the retinoic acid receptors (RARs) and the retinoid X receptors (RXRs). A central question is whether distinct response pathways are regulated by these two classes of receptors. The observation that the stereoisomer 9-cis-retinoic acid binds with high affinity to RXRs suggested that this retinoid has a distinct role in controlling RXR activity, but it was almost simultaneously discovered that RXRs function as auxiliary receptors for RARs and related receptors, and are essential for DNA binding and function of those receptors. Hence, although RARs seem to operate effectively only as heterodimeric RAR/RXR complexes, RXRs themselves apparently function predominantly, if not exclusively, as auxiliary receptors. Here we report that 9-cis-retinoic acid induces RXR homodimer formation. Our results demonstrate a new mechanism for retinoid action by which a ligand-induced homodimer mediates a distinct retinoid response pathway.